Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Here We Go Again...

Today's primaries were very lightly polled, so we really don't "know" who is favored.

On the Democratic side, Clinton seems assured of winning Louisiana handily.  It's a primary with a combination of large numbers of African American voters and a few legacy white Southern Democrats.  Kansas and Nebraska have caucuses, which automatically favors Sanders.  His unexpected showing in Oklahoma suggests he should do well there.  Plus, very white=feeling the Bern.  Clinton just needs to get to Tuesday, when she should rack up huge wins in Michigan and Mississippi to pad her delegate lead.

On the GOP side, it's again more fluid.  Maine should go for Trump, as he's run unexpectedly strong in New England.  I would argue that for his supporters, they feel very much under siege from "political correctness" or "don't be an asshole" in that they live in the most liberal part of the country.  Kansas and Kentucky are kind of wild cards, and again there is precious little polling of those states.  Ted Cruz needs to win Louisiana.

On Sunday, Sanders needs to crush it in Maine, while Little Marco needs a big win in Puerto Rico.

If anything, today is a day when we will see if the GOP/Fox News assault on Trump did any damage.

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