Iraq In A Hard Place

Good news: SDF and Kurdish forces have captured the erstwhile capital of ISIS, Raqqa.

Bad news: IDF and Kurdish forces are engaged in combat over the city of Kirkuk.

When you let slip the dogs of war, you can't begin to predict where they will roam and what they will destroy.  The "country" of Iraq remains riven along three basic lines: Shia Arab, Sunni Arab and Kurd.  For a while, Shiites and Kurds united to defeat ISIS.  Now that ISIS is collapsing, they seem intent on retraining their guns on each other.

Should the Kurds have their own country?  Yes, probably.  And the Kurds will insist on owning Kirkuk.  But Kirkuk has oil and Iraq doesn't want to lose it. 

If the Kurds are committed to independence, they need to cede Kirkuk's oil (or at least part of it) in return for Kirkuk's geography. 

Middle Eastern politics is so often maximalist ("Give me everything I want!") that it can make compromise impossible, but any independent Kurdistan will require compromise with Iraqis, because they will likely have to defend themselves from Turks if they do win independence.

Chaotic times we live in.