So, Trump didn't pass his opportunity to make the worst decision. Again. He has pulled out of the toughest verification measures any nuclear deal has implemented. He did it more or less because it's the opposite of what Obama did. Because Trump is a toddler. Iran could shut out IAEA inspectors and gear back up, which would could lead to a bomb, or more likely US and/or Israeli strikes. Which would be a catastropic destabilizing of the Persian Gulf. Get ready for $5.00/gal gasoline. Trump got played by Netanyahu's bullshit presentation about the fact that Iran was lying back when we knew they were lying. Like the toddler that he is, Trump was distracted by his own peevish animosity and Netanyahu and Bolton's shiny powerpoint (WITH PICTURES!!) and has pulled America out of a substantive and impressive regime that kept Iran from getting a bomb.
The ball is now soundly in Iran's court, and Europe's, too. It will be interesting to see if Iran attempts to seize the high ground by staying in the deal. This would require Europe to not only reaffirm the deal but provide economic incentives for Iran to stay in. Iran has been rocked by protests surrounding the economy since December. If the US snaps a bunch of sanctions that destroy the Iranian economy even further, it could lead to even more unrest. My guess this is what Netanyahu and Bolton are hoping for. If this unrest topples Rouhani's government, it could lead to another Ahmadinejhad, which would justify the military action that Israel craves. If it topples the whole government: that would be the ultimate victory.
To some degree, leaving aside Trump's toddler-esque tantrums about hating anything Obama did, Netanyahu and Bolton are engaging in the sort of impulsive, leap before you look foreign policy is awfully reminiscent of the lead up to Iraq in 2003. Chaos works for Israel, because it distracts its Arab enemies from the issues in Gaza.
In America, it leads to dead American soldiers. Prove to me that Bolton, Netanyahu and Trump give a shit about that.
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