Feed The Warpig

There are a number of trends that are geniunely frightening in the world right now.  First has to be the ascension of warporn enthusiast John Bolton to National Security Advisor.  HR McMaster was a combat veteran and understood the chaos and unpredictability of warfare.  Bolton still thinks Iraq was a good idea. 

This is important, because of a number of other trends.  First, we have the American violation of the JCPOA with Iran.  Europe and Iran are working to hold the deal together, but it's unclear how belligerent the Trump Administration will be with European countries that continue to honor the agreement.  At least one of the rationales for going to war with Iran is their nuclear program.  Withdrawing from the one thing that could have kept them from a nuclear weapon seems to be creating a climate for war.

Now, we have Israel striking Iranian targets in Syria.  Iran responded feebly, but Iran's strength is not in its missle forces in Syria (or Iran, despite what the fearmongers would have you believe).  Iran's strength is in asymmetrical warfare. 

We can now add to this the unrest in Gaza prompted by Trump's decisions - which few diplomats endorsed - to move the American embassy to Jerusalem.  This removes the United States as an "honest broker" in the Israel-Palestine conflict.  We are now firmly on the side of the Likud Party. 

It is now in Iran's interest to foment a Third Intifada.  Whether it is in the interest of Palestinians, I can't say, but I can't imagine they are feeling any warmth towards an Israeli government that has all but abandoned any pretense of accepting a Palestinian state in any form. 

The Iraq disaster, followed by the Syrian disaster, has kept the focus off Israel.  There is a certain soft alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran, but if Israeli troops start killing Palestinians (well more Palestinians), the pressure on Riyadh will be intense. 

We have already embarked on a revisionist history of the Iraq Debacle.  Trump,  it is being said, has rehabilitated George W. Bush, because Bush - while incurious and impulsive - is no Trump.  Some have noted that Iraq is having elections, which were impossible under Saddam Hussein.  The fact that pro-Iranian, anti-American militant Moqtada Al-Sadr looks primed to win the election should tell us all we need to know about the wisdom of that decision.  But the proper counterargument was "Do you want Saddam Hussein to still be in power?" is "How many hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and millions of Syrians need to die to fulfill your next promise of war?"

If the Middle East erupts again, it will erupt along two lines: Israel/Saudi vs Iran, but also the old Israel vs Palestinian feud.  There is no reason to expect anything positive.