Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, July 1, 2018

How Do You Get Congressional Majorities?

Every time I decide to waste some time on Twitter, someone is making the case that the current Democratic leadership is "just like Clinton" and too cautious.  Inevitably, this is because Democrats aren't embracing the package of policies and messaging that the person tweeting feels is a sure-fire winner.

Inevitably, the analysis begins with the fact that Clinton lost certain parts of the Obama coalition.  Given how narrow the loss was in three states, there is a case to make that simply revivifying the Obama coalition will lead to victories.

Except the Obama coalition didn't hold the House. 

And the Obama coalition would seem to be motivated anyway.

There is also the idea that White Working Class voters are lost forever because of their implicit racism. 

The problem is that this assumes monolithic voting tendencies among Trump voters.  There is clear evidence that independents and college educated Republicans are deserting Trump, if not the Republican Party.  Those suburban voting Republicans are the key to winning the House and the Senate in November. 

Those people aren't interested in abolishing ICE, they just don't like tearing families apart.  They aren't interested in "socialism" whatever any individual thinks that means at any given moment. 

All the cautious centrism from Democratic leaders are about winning those suburban college educated Republican leaning women. 

But I guess the twitterati know better.

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