Kavanaugh

In the end, because he was likely bored or uninterested in the details to begin with, Trump went with the Establishment GOP Safe Pick for Anthony Kennedy's seat.  There is some evidence that Kennedy negotiated Kavanaugh as his replacement.

Needless to say, Trump's appointment of another Federalist Society ideologue has created a circular firing squad on the Left.  Donnelly, Manchin and Heitkamp are all facing tough re-election campaign in Trump states (though I think Manchin is in pretty good shape).  They aren't going to be "bold" in their opposition to a judge that will most likely get confirmed anyway.  They are basically going to wait until Collins and Murkowski make up their minds (which are probably bent towards Kavanaugh, because...c'mon), and then they will follow suit.  If there are enough votes to block him, they will join those efforts, but if there aren't, then they won't.

The idea that any Red State Dem should risk his or her neck for a vote that will be largely decided without them doesn't make any sense when the 2018 midterm elections are so critically important.  If Democrats DO win back control of the Senate, it will be because Heitkamp and Donnelly win re-election.  And if they do win back control, they can slow or stop the Trump Era court packing that is going on. 

Josh Marshall is likely right that there are two avenues to attack Kavanaugh.  The first is Roe v Wade.  The second and more important one is how Kavanaugh feels about the ability to indict a sitting president.  He has flip-flopped on this issue depending on whether a Democrat or Republican sits in the Oval Office, and that is unlikely to sway Collins and Murkowski, because their allegiance is to themselves and the GOP - not the country.  The hearings should provide a platform to argue about whether A) you CAN indict a sitting president and B) whether a president should be able to name a Supreme Court judge to the Court who will rule on that very matter pertaining to him.

The battle to block Kavanaugh was lost in 2016.  It was lost in Pennsylvania - not only when Clinton lost, but when Katie McGinty lost by 90,000 votes out of 5,750,000 cast.  The idea that Manchin/Heitkamp/Donnelly represent some quisling fifth column is just bullshit analysis of the political realities facing those individual Senators.