Jon Chait's piece from October 31st, 2016 still holds up really well. While he predicts that Clinton "should" win, the rest is spot on.
The question that goes begging in this piece is what happens if Trump does win? Chait supposes that conservatives will stick with Trump, and this is true. But what about those who are not ideologically conservative? If Democrats can win the House in 2018 and 2020, and win control of important state legislatures to control gerrymandering...perhaps Trump can break the delusion that has gripped people who think they are voting for small government but are really voting for racist plutocracy.
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