What it is, ain't exactly clear.
This Q-Poll generic ballot is on the high side for this cycle, but not the high side for post-Labor Day. Perhaps Trump's egregious nastiness surrounding the John McCain funeral cost him and his party some support. The key indicator will be those stupid "independents" who haven't yet made up their mind. Many won't vote, but Democrats lead among independents 50-35. Given the declining number of Republicans as a whole, the ability of Republicans to win 93% of their co-partisans is not especially relevant. This poll has Republicans winning white men (there have been some polls that had them only getting 50% of white men, which would be the end of their party). They lose white women by 5 points. That's a lot. They are also losing whites with college degrees 52-43. That is the suburban vote that will swing the House.
If late breakers break against Trump and the GOP, there is simply no way for the GOP to retain the House and they likely lose the Senate, too.
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