This is a bigger deal than it gets credit for. It's not Climate Change level of importance, but it's among the more important economic stories of the past decade. The author hedges his bets as to why workers have not gotten appreciable raises, but he fails to mention the stagnation in the minimum wage. While he mentions the decline of unions (and that is another important factor), the lack of growth in the minimum wage is a scandal. It works hand-in-glove with the GOP tax bill that rewards companies for paying executives more and squeezing workers. The recent cuts in jobs by GM is a good example of this dynamic at work. GM executives will see their stock options increase in value, while blue collar workers are immiserated.
A lot of these workers jumped to Trump in 2016 and there is some evidence that some of them flipped back to Democrats in 2018. If Democrats can make the case that the GOP is screwing them over (which wouldn't be hard if it weren't for the alternative reality of Fox News and basic civic and economic illiteracy), they could see even greater gains in 2020.
Trump ran on "I'm too rich to be corrupted." That has proven laughably absurd (though it was in 2016, too). A combined message of Trumpist personal corruption with stagnant wages can hopefully continue to cement the GOP as the party of Scrooge McDuck and Ebeneezer Scrooge.
Friday, November 30, 2018
The More Things Do Not Change...
This story from St. Louis is depressing but unsurprising. There is ample evidence that three St. Louis police officers specifically planned and then executed a plan to viciously beat protesters. One of the protesters that they beat was an undercover police officer, so there might be an actual consequence. Yet... probably not.
With a few exceptions - most recently in Chicago - police officers are rarely convicted of assault against civilians. Some of this is the nature of white juries siding with police and some is a consequence of District Attorneys not vigorously prosecuting police. DAs and cops are two sides of the same coin, and DAs require good relations with the police to do their jobs. It's little wonder that they don't go after cops who riot as vigorously as they go after corner boys dealing drugs.
Missouri is also showing some really troubling tendencies in its politics and race relations. Once an electoral bellwether, it's increasingly more like a populous Alabama.
The evidence against the officers seems overwhelming. I'm not convinced a jury will hold them accountable, though.
With a few exceptions - most recently in Chicago - police officers are rarely convicted of assault against civilians. Some of this is the nature of white juries siding with police and some is a consequence of District Attorneys not vigorously prosecuting police. DAs and cops are two sides of the same coin, and DAs require good relations with the police to do their jobs. It's little wonder that they don't go after cops who riot as vigorously as they go after corner boys dealing drugs.
Missouri is also showing some really troubling tendencies in its politics and race relations. Once an electoral bellwether, it's increasingly more like a populous Alabama.
The evidence against the officers seems overwhelming. I'm not convinced a jury will hold them accountable, though.
Thursday, November 29, 2018
State of Flux
Things are all over the place with the Mueller probe. Josh Marshall is right, in that we have no idea what this actually means.
My hunch is that you have a lot of people under a lot of pressure – making reckless moves, taking desperate actions, pulling ejection seat cords. They’re making wild moves. Some are lying. Some of the new details are accurate. But it’s hard to distinguish between the real information and the smoke and distractions various players are tossing up into the air. The confusion isn’t simply confusion. It’s a sign that something big is taking shape. What it is won’t be clear until Mueller speaks – figuratively.
My hunch is that you have a lot of people under a lot of pressure – making reckless moves, taking desperate actions, pulling ejection seat cords. They’re making wild moves. Some are lying. Some of the new details are accurate. But it’s hard to distinguish between the real information and the smoke and distractions various players are tossing up into the air. The confusion isn’t simply confusion. It’s a sign that something big is taking shape. What it is won’t be clear until Mueller speaks – figuratively.
Wednesday, November 28, 2018
Bad Idea
Cindy Hyde-Smith won fairly handily last night, because of course she did. It was Mississippi.
However, there was some concern that allegations of her attending a white's only school and embracing neo-confederate groups would hurt her. She handled the allegations poorly, but in the end it didn't matter.
I wonder if maybe it did matter.
In the general election, there were three main candidates. One of them, Chris McDaniel, was a true white supremacist. He was a bomb throwing demagogue, who upset the Mississippi GOP establishment. He got 16.5% of the vote. There was some question as to whether his voters would stay home, and them staying home was Espy's only route to victory.
Instead, the various attacks on Hyde-Smith likely helped her with those McDaniel voters. On election day, she won 368,000 votes. Espy won 360,000 votes. Yesterday, Hyde-Smith won 457,000 votes, whereas Espy only picked up 388,000.
The racism helped her.
I'm sure the NY Times will write a Very Serious Piece about how Democrats need to reach out to working class whites in Mississippi, but if I'm right, I just don't see how that's possible. The racism wasn't a problem, it was the point.
However, there was some concern that allegations of her attending a white's only school and embracing neo-confederate groups would hurt her. She handled the allegations poorly, but in the end it didn't matter.
I wonder if maybe it did matter.
In the general election, there were three main candidates. One of them, Chris McDaniel, was a true white supremacist. He was a bomb throwing demagogue, who upset the Mississippi GOP establishment. He got 16.5% of the vote. There was some question as to whether his voters would stay home, and them staying home was Espy's only route to victory.
Instead, the various attacks on Hyde-Smith likely helped her with those McDaniel voters. On election day, she won 368,000 votes. Espy won 360,000 votes. Yesterday, Hyde-Smith won 457,000 votes, whereas Espy only picked up 388,000.
The racism helped her.
I'm sure the NY Times will write a Very Serious Piece about how Democrats need to reach out to working class whites in Mississippi, but if I'm right, I just don't see how that's possible. The racism wasn't a problem, it was the point.
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
MIssissippi
Special elections and run-offs are weird, but there's not a great chance for Mike Espy to knock off neo-confederate Cindy Hyde-Smith today. Unless white Mississippians stay home and African Americans flood the polls, it's unlikely to happen.
But it would be...amazeballs.
But it would be...amazeballs.
Monday, November 26, 2018
Morons
I don't know what the everloving hell is wrong with these people. The GOP majority craps all over them for years, so I get their desire to re-write House rules to empower the middle. The problem is that these rules will hamstring Democrats in the majority, and once the Republicans regain the majority at some point in the future, they will un-do the rules.
I don't believe Democrats should play the same politics that Republicans play, but they shouldn't hamper their own efforts with appeals to bipartisanship that have zero appeal outside of the donor base of a few wealthy individuals.
I don't believe Democrats should play the same politics that Republicans play, but they shouldn't hamper their own efforts with appeals to bipartisanship that have zero appeal outside of the donor base of a few wealthy individuals.
Sunday, November 25, 2018
Slow Rolling Catastrophe
On Friday, the Trump White House quietly dumped an incredibly damning report about the immediate impact of climate change. On the one hand, it was amazing that the report was even allowed to see the light of day, but obviously it demonstrates two things about information in Trumpistan.
First, they used the Friday News Dump. This was a favored tactic of previous administrations - Dubya was especially good at it. If you have bad news, get it out on Friday afternoon, so the story gets lost in the weekend. Dumping it the Friday after Thanksgiving was especially deft, since literally no one is watching the news with any urgency. This demonstrates, as if we didn't know, how little Trump and the entire GOP cares about climate change. The GOP is literally the only major political party in the developed world (and that includes the Chinese Communist Party) that doesn't accept that climate change is man-made and needs a policy solution.
Second, it demonstrates how poorly news organizations can handle bad news in Trumpistan. This is a big deal. It's about...everything. It comes on the heels of a major catastrophe in California. It comes a few months after catastrophic hurricanes hit Florida. There is context galore for major stories about the impact of climate change.
But simultaneous to this, you have a GOP Senate candidate exposed as a literal neo-Confederate; the ongoing outrage of Khashoggi's murder; the ongoing feud between Trump and Chief Justice Roberts; another migration crisis on our borders and...well, let's just see what Monday brings, shall we?
The complete overloading of the puke funnel with terrible stories is having an impact. I believe that those formerly GOP leaning suburban women who flipped on Election Day were influenced by the steadily rising flood of bad stories. It creates a feeling detached from specifics of a world gone shitty. What it doesn't necessarily do is create focus on certain issues. Right now there are probably two major policy concerns: in the short term, Trump's corruption, in the long term, climate change. Neither one can hold any one's attention for more than a few hours before something else horrible comes along to distract us.
Remember: "May you live in interesting times" is a curse.
First, they used the Friday News Dump. This was a favored tactic of previous administrations - Dubya was especially good at it. If you have bad news, get it out on Friday afternoon, so the story gets lost in the weekend. Dumping it the Friday after Thanksgiving was especially deft, since literally no one is watching the news with any urgency. This demonstrates, as if we didn't know, how little Trump and the entire GOP cares about climate change. The GOP is literally the only major political party in the developed world (and that includes the Chinese Communist Party) that doesn't accept that climate change is man-made and needs a policy solution.
Second, it demonstrates how poorly news organizations can handle bad news in Trumpistan. This is a big deal. It's about...everything. It comes on the heels of a major catastrophe in California. It comes a few months after catastrophic hurricanes hit Florida. There is context galore for major stories about the impact of climate change.
But simultaneous to this, you have a GOP Senate candidate exposed as a literal neo-Confederate; the ongoing outrage of Khashoggi's murder; the ongoing feud between Trump and Chief Justice Roberts; another migration crisis on our borders and...well, let's just see what Monday brings, shall we?
The complete overloading of the puke funnel with terrible stories is having an impact. I believe that those formerly GOP leaning suburban women who flipped on Election Day were influenced by the steadily rising flood of bad stories. It creates a feeling detached from specifics of a world gone shitty. What it doesn't necessarily do is create focus on certain issues. Right now there are probably two major policy concerns: in the short term, Trump's corruption, in the long term, climate change. Neither one can hold any one's attention for more than a few hours before something else horrible comes along to distract us.
Remember: "May you live in interesting times" is a curse.
Saturday, November 24, 2018
The Irreconcilable Issue
Abortion has long been the issue that divides Americans in truly irreconcilable ways. For opponents, it's infanticide. For supporters, it's about the autonomy of woman over her own body. For obvious reasons, it hasn't been a "hot button" issue for me, though I've been pro-choice my whole life.
Mostly, I'm sympathetic to the argument that those who demand that pregnancies be carried to term are simply demanding that women be vessels for childbearing. Almost invariably, those who oppose abortion also oppose meaningful sex education or support for birth control. Abortion isn't a first choice for birth control, it is - by definition - the last option. Ideally, both the information and education about sex and the financial means to support birth control options would be in place to reduce the need for abortions. That would seem to be a common ground. The fact that it hasn't become common ground is the tell.
Some of this is the fault of the Roman Catholic church's insistence that birth control is immoral. Given the moral quagmire on sexual issues that typifies the Catholic church, it's disappointing that a bunch of pedophile-defending old men can define this issue. But even if Francis were to reverse fully that decision, evangelicals in this country will likely cling to forced child birth.
If there was a way to make this issue "go away" through a meaningful compromise, that might improve aspects of our politics. But this is a legitimate difference in principles that can't be bridged.
Like so many other things in our country.
Mostly, I'm sympathetic to the argument that those who demand that pregnancies be carried to term are simply demanding that women be vessels for childbearing. Almost invariably, those who oppose abortion also oppose meaningful sex education or support for birth control. Abortion isn't a first choice for birth control, it is - by definition - the last option. Ideally, both the information and education about sex and the financial means to support birth control options would be in place to reduce the need for abortions. That would seem to be a common ground. The fact that it hasn't become common ground is the tell.
Some of this is the fault of the Roman Catholic church's insistence that birth control is immoral. Given the moral quagmire on sexual issues that typifies the Catholic church, it's disappointing that a bunch of pedophile-defending old men can define this issue. But even if Francis were to reverse fully that decision, evangelicals in this country will likely cling to forced child birth.
If there was a way to make this issue "go away" through a meaningful compromise, that might improve aspects of our politics. But this is a legitimate difference in principles that can't be bridged.
Like so many other things in our country.
Friday, November 23, 2018
JFK
This is an interesting read on some of the facts surrounding the Kennedy assassination. A few things pop out.
First, it should be said that Kennedy was something of a moral sewer. Great image: young, handsome, eloquent, both Harvard and Irish. But underneath it all was someone who was perfectly comfortable using others, especially women for sex. His younger brother, Teddy, obviously inherited that behavior, I'm not sure how much Robert did, though he, too, clearly cheated on his wife. The constant nostalgia for the Kennedys is a great example of how vacant celebrity politics are, whether it's the glamorous Kennedy clan or a reality TV vulgarian. Kennedy spent most days medicated beyond belief on a cocktail of illegal drugs. That was the guy who helmed the country through the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Second, the fever swamps of right wing paranoia have deep roots. Dallas in 1963 was basically a geographic expression of InfoWars today. In '63, the John Birch Society was considered the lunatic fringe of American politics, yet it was a vibrant presence in Dallas and other Southern cities. These were the nutjobs who believed flouridation was a Communist plot. Of course today, we have nothing like that. The year after Kennedy's death, Richard Hofstadter would write The Paranoid Style in American Politics, which remains a critical piece of scholarship in looking at the fringes - especially on the right - of American politics.
JFK's assassination was widely considered to be the kick-off of the craziness of the 1960s. His administration was the last of the 1950s, whereas LBJ oversaw the dramatic expansion of civil rights and public goods that radicalized white resentment and led to Nixon. Vietnam and the fissures it tore in American society were real, but as we see today, it was largely the backlash to civil rights and the providing of public goods to "those people" that powered the rise of the Reagan Revolution and modern conservatism. Kennedy's death in and of itself wasn't the reason why this happened, except to the degree it lead to LBJ having large majorities to pass the legislation that created the white racial backlash.
First, it should be said that Kennedy was something of a moral sewer. Great image: young, handsome, eloquent, both Harvard and Irish. But underneath it all was someone who was perfectly comfortable using others, especially women for sex. His younger brother, Teddy, obviously inherited that behavior, I'm not sure how much Robert did, though he, too, clearly cheated on his wife. The constant nostalgia for the Kennedys is a great example of how vacant celebrity politics are, whether it's the glamorous Kennedy clan or a reality TV vulgarian. Kennedy spent most days medicated beyond belief on a cocktail of illegal drugs. That was the guy who helmed the country through the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Second, the fever swamps of right wing paranoia have deep roots. Dallas in 1963 was basically a geographic expression of InfoWars today. In '63, the John Birch Society was considered the lunatic fringe of American politics, yet it was a vibrant presence in Dallas and other Southern cities. These were the nutjobs who believed flouridation was a Communist plot. Of course today, we have nothing like that. The year after Kennedy's death, Richard Hofstadter would write The Paranoid Style in American Politics, which remains a critical piece of scholarship in looking at the fringes - especially on the right - of American politics.
JFK's assassination was widely considered to be the kick-off of the craziness of the 1960s. His administration was the last of the 1950s, whereas LBJ oversaw the dramatic expansion of civil rights and public goods that radicalized white resentment and led to Nixon. Vietnam and the fissures it tore in American society were real, but as we see today, it was largely the backlash to civil rights and the providing of public goods to "those people" that powered the rise of the Reagan Revolution and modern conservatism. Kennedy's death in and of itself wasn't the reason why this happened, except to the degree it lead to LBJ having large majorities to pass the legislation that created the white racial backlash.
Thursday, November 22, 2018
I'm Thankful For Badass Women
Encapsulated in this blurb is a tweet by Ocasio-Cortez. Basically, the Five White Guys revolt against Nancy Pelosi has predictably fizzled on the fact of the facts. Pelosi is a bad ass. She will mess a fool up. Seth Moulton has almost certainly earned himself a primary challenge for his troubles. She will be the next Speaker, because she was always going to be the next Speaker, because...bad ass.
The tweet is instructive, too, because if Pelosi is smart - and she is - she will get AOC in front of the cameras frequently. AOC is smart, especially about media. There are a few of these younger generation legislators who are proficient in social media - Brian Schatz and Beto O'Rourke come to mind, too - and Pelosi needs to leverage those skills.
There is a generation of Democratic politicians, and here I'm thinking of Chuck Schumer and Steny Hoyer, who were conditioned by the 1980s. The country lurched rightward and the Democratic party entered a minority period in the House in 1994. Their reflex is to crouch against a coming blow and to "reach out" across the aisle for some sort of "bipartisan comity" that simply doesn't exist anymore. Pelosi is from that same era, but she learned the important lesson that comity died. It was Pelosi who saved Social Security in 2005.
Find a new Majority Leader and stick that person in front of a camera. I like Ted Leiu on social media, but there has to be someone under the age of 60 with the chops to take on bullshit talking points on Press the Meat. Adam Schiff has his lane, but they need someone to be the face of the party while Nancy smashes the Republicans behind closed doors.
The tweet is instructive, too, because if Pelosi is smart - and she is - she will get AOC in front of the cameras frequently. AOC is smart, especially about media. There are a few of these younger generation legislators who are proficient in social media - Brian Schatz and Beto O'Rourke come to mind, too - and Pelosi needs to leverage those skills.
There is a generation of Democratic politicians, and here I'm thinking of Chuck Schumer and Steny Hoyer, who were conditioned by the 1980s. The country lurched rightward and the Democratic party entered a minority period in the House in 1994. Their reflex is to crouch against a coming blow and to "reach out" across the aisle for some sort of "bipartisan comity" that simply doesn't exist anymore. Pelosi is from that same era, but she learned the important lesson that comity died. It was Pelosi who saved Social Security in 2005.
Find a new Majority Leader and stick that person in front of a camera. I like Ted Leiu on social media, but there has to be someone under the age of 60 with the chops to take on bullshit talking points on Press the Meat. Adam Schiff has his lane, but they need someone to be the face of the party while Nancy smashes the Republicans behind closed doors.
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Welcome To The Party
Max Boot was a neo-conservative cheerleader of the Iraq War. Recently, he announced that he was switching parties as one of the few meaningful Never Trump conservatives. If you read his column today, you might be struck by how much he sounds like some leftists college professor. His basic criticism - that economic dislocations have led to anti-democratic Populism - is hardly a controversial one in some circles, but I doubt that Boot held these positions five years ago.
He does bring a certain narrow lens to his argument. He neglects to mention the climate when he talks about the refugee crises that have led to racist demogoguery in Europe and the US, but he's right about the political destabilization in the border between the developed and underdeveloped world leading to massive immigration that seems to have no amiable solution.
What was interesting to me was not his argument (I could have made a similar one myself if the WaPo wants to give me a job), but rather that Boot was the one making it. As I said, I doubt he would be making those arguments about wealth inequality five to ten years ago.
It's almost like leaving the Republican Party has lead to him opening himself up to a world of evidence that he was blind to before.
I've seen repeated arguments that white people, but especially white women, are being terrible racists for voting against Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum. I think there's a great deal of truth to that, but I also don't think that calling them racists is going to change one freaking person's mind.
Instead, if my observations of people like Max Boot, Bill Kristol and Joe Walsh is correct, the reason all these white people voted against Abrams and Gillum (and Bill Nelson and Beto O'Rourke) is because they are Republicans. And Republicans are heavily invested - as a matter of their core political beliefs - that racism barely exists anymore. It's just a made up weapon to use against Republicans. I mean, what else is Cindy Hyde-Smith going to say?
However, if I'm right (and there's a first time for everything), I think that once you strip people away from the GOP, they open themselves up to a bigger range of opinions. Not all of them. Joe Walsh is still a gun-humping ammosexual, for instance. But being a Republican is about being angry and defensive about everything. The changes in the country, brown people not knowing their place, factory jobs disappearing, gay people being all gay and stuff... To be a Republican in 2018 is be engaged in a long and vocifreous tantrum against the 21st century.
Once you get them out of that mindset...who knows where that might lead us? What happens if those college educated suburban women never return to the GOP? What happens if the GOP loses half of college educated white men? Or more?
Once you're out of the Fox News hermetically sealed bubble, suddenly there is a world of compelling information you can assimilate. Global climate change isn't just about hotter summers, it's about natural disasters and refugee crisis, but it has a policy solution. Critical levels of economic inequality is incompatible with a functioning democracy and expanding the welfare state, especially education opportunities and health care availability, can reduce those strains on society.
The essential glue that (barely) holds progressives together is the idea that we can make a better world through collective action. The essential glue of conservativism is that this is wrong, and therefore we just need to hunker down amidst the old ways. When the world convulses - as it is doing now - we can expect a last, desperate surge of conservatism like we saw at the end of the 19th century. But in the end, we will need to embrace options to manage change.
If we can flip enough of the population to see this, we can usher in a generation of progressive change in this country and perhaps around the world.
He does bring a certain narrow lens to his argument. He neglects to mention the climate when he talks about the refugee crises that have led to racist demogoguery in Europe and the US, but he's right about the political destabilization in the border between the developed and underdeveloped world leading to massive immigration that seems to have no amiable solution.
What was interesting to me was not his argument (I could have made a similar one myself if the WaPo wants to give me a job), but rather that Boot was the one making it. As I said, I doubt he would be making those arguments about wealth inequality five to ten years ago.
It's almost like leaving the Republican Party has lead to him opening himself up to a world of evidence that he was blind to before.
I've seen repeated arguments that white people, but especially white women, are being terrible racists for voting against Stacey Abrams and Andrew Gillum. I think there's a great deal of truth to that, but I also don't think that calling them racists is going to change one freaking person's mind.
Instead, if my observations of people like Max Boot, Bill Kristol and Joe Walsh is correct, the reason all these white people voted against Abrams and Gillum (and Bill Nelson and Beto O'Rourke) is because they are Republicans. And Republicans are heavily invested - as a matter of their core political beliefs - that racism barely exists anymore. It's just a made up weapon to use against Republicans. I mean, what else is Cindy Hyde-Smith going to say?
However, if I'm right (and there's a first time for everything), I think that once you strip people away from the GOP, they open themselves up to a bigger range of opinions. Not all of them. Joe Walsh is still a gun-humping ammosexual, for instance. But being a Republican is about being angry and defensive about everything. The changes in the country, brown people not knowing their place, factory jobs disappearing, gay people being all gay and stuff... To be a Republican in 2018 is be engaged in a long and vocifreous tantrum against the 21st century.
Once you get them out of that mindset...who knows where that might lead us? What happens if those college educated suburban women never return to the GOP? What happens if the GOP loses half of college educated white men? Or more?
Once you're out of the Fox News hermetically sealed bubble, suddenly there is a world of compelling information you can assimilate. Global climate change isn't just about hotter summers, it's about natural disasters and refugee crisis, but it has a policy solution. Critical levels of economic inequality is incompatible with a functioning democracy and expanding the welfare state, especially education opportunities and health care availability, can reduce those strains on society.
The essential glue that (barely) holds progressives together is the idea that we can make a better world through collective action. The essential glue of conservativism is that this is wrong, and therefore we just need to hunker down amidst the old ways. When the world convulses - as it is doing now - we can expect a last, desperate surge of conservatism like we saw at the end of the 19th century. But in the end, we will need to embrace options to manage change.
If we can flip enough of the population to see this, we can usher in a generation of progressive change in this country and perhaps around the world.
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
Khashoggi
The moral and foreign policy disaster that is Trump's handling of the Khashoggi murder is a Rosetta Stone of the Trump "Administration."
First, there is the reflexive sucking up to a dictator. Trump's credulity whenever a strongman is questioned is a feature of his foreign affairs. It goes something like this: Strongman does something terrible, World cries out in outrage. Trump meets with Strongman who denies it. Trump "believes" the Strongman with a "Whaddya gonna do" shrug. Trump admires dictators, and he admires their ability to avoid consequences.
Second, is his disdain for the press, which is part of Trump's admiration for dictators' ability to avoid consequences. Khashoggi was a staunch critic of the Saudi regime, and he was forced to leave the country, because of his criticism. Trump is a coward, but he would love to have a Good Squad who would go around beating up or even murdering the press. His cowardice is evident in his refusal to listen to the tape. Trump had a Rich Boy's life of skating across the friction points most of us face. The press is currently the greatest factor holding Trump accountable, with the courts a close second. If a journalist gets killed, why would that upset Trump?
Finally, there is the rank corruption. Part of Trump and Kushner's fondness for bin Salman is the fact that Saudi money has flowed into their properties since inauguration. The Saudis know that the way to Trump is through his wallet, and they have been lavishing events on Trump properties around the globe.
All of this is fair game for House Democrats in six weeks. Smart Republicans should know this and get out front of this. Anyone seen any smart Republicans?
First, there is the reflexive sucking up to a dictator. Trump's credulity whenever a strongman is questioned is a feature of his foreign affairs. It goes something like this: Strongman does something terrible, World cries out in outrage. Trump meets with Strongman who denies it. Trump "believes" the Strongman with a "Whaddya gonna do" shrug. Trump admires dictators, and he admires their ability to avoid consequences.
Second, is his disdain for the press, which is part of Trump's admiration for dictators' ability to avoid consequences. Khashoggi was a staunch critic of the Saudi regime, and he was forced to leave the country, because of his criticism. Trump is a coward, but he would love to have a Good Squad who would go around beating up or even murdering the press. His cowardice is evident in his refusal to listen to the tape. Trump had a Rich Boy's life of skating across the friction points most of us face. The press is currently the greatest factor holding Trump accountable, with the courts a close second. If a journalist gets killed, why would that upset Trump?
Finally, there is the rank corruption. Part of Trump and Kushner's fondness for bin Salman is the fact that Saudi money has flowed into their properties since inauguration. The Saudis know that the way to Trump is through his wallet, and they have been lavishing events on Trump properties around the globe.
All of this is fair game for House Democrats in six weeks. Smart Republicans should know this and get out front of this. Anyone seen any smart Republicans?
Monday, November 19, 2018
UGH, Both Sides
Read this Washington Post story and see if you can tell me who won the midterm elections. Democrats won at least 37 seats, and there could be a couple more that flip. The GOP got wiped out in the suburbs and with emerging demographic groups. You could walk from Puget Sound to El Paso and pass through one GOP held district.
The media's constant pre-occupation with Trump's base is appalling. Yes. Old white people like him. Time to move on.
The media's constant pre-occupation with Trump's base is appalling. Yes. Old white people like him. Time to move on.
Sunday, November 18, 2018
What It Looks Like
Any number of people have identified global warming as the premier long term crisis. They are often derided by "very serious thinkers" on the right, because...tree hugging hippies, I guess.
The disasters in Puerto Rico, North Carolina and now California are of course difficult to pin solely on climate change. Hurricanes and forest fires are natural events that would happen with or without a warming globe. What climate change does is amplify and intensify these events.
The Camp Fire is an unbelievable tragedy. The speed and intensity of the event has led to who knows how many deaths.
Needless to say, we are not equipped with leadership that will address this issue. Every year, every day counts in trying to get a handle on this, and we are failing the future. Thanks Republicans.
The disasters in Puerto Rico, North Carolina and now California are of course difficult to pin solely on climate change. Hurricanes and forest fires are natural events that would happen with or without a warming globe. What climate change does is amplify and intensify these events.
The Camp Fire is an unbelievable tragedy. The speed and intensity of the event has led to who knows how many deaths.
Needless to say, we are not equipped with leadership that will address this issue. Every year, every day counts in trying to get a handle on this, and we are failing the future. Thanks Republicans.
Saturday, November 17, 2018
Tricky
Many people have rightly chided Trump and other Republicans for saying that people like Bill Nelson are trying to "steal an election" by requiring that all votes be counted. Counting votes is the essential component of democracy. Martha McSally was lauded for clearing the lowest possible bar: acknowledging math.
Stacey Abrams has a plausible but not irrefutable case for voter suppression. She is in the position of having to prove a negative, namely that if Brian Kemp had not done what he did, she would be the rightful winner. Frankly, I have some doubts. Stacey Abrams is a very impressive figure, but Georgia is still Georgia. Quite a few otherwise sympathetic "White Liberals" will still cling to the Angry Black Lady tropes and have their doubts about black politicians in general. Exit polls certainly suggest that Abrams didn't do well enough with the same sort of voters that flipped GA-6.
Both Abrams and Andrew Gillum very likely came up against a racial wall. They were running in the South, with populations that contain more than their share of aging whites.
Abrams ended her bid without conceding, which is more than just a rhetorical device. My hope is that she would run for Senate against David Perdue in two years, but to win, she will need two things. First, she will need a more credible Secretary of State than Brian Kemp who will work to make sure that voting is easier than it is now, especially for people of color. Second, she will need to win more white votes. There are some who are taking a "fuck white people" approach, but again that is a misreading of how elections work. Yes, white Georgians overwhelmingly voted for Kemp. But Abrams doesn't have to win white voters; she has to win enough white voters.
My worry is that she will need to build bridges to communities who won't be happy with the non-concession. If she doesn't, her statewide career won't go anywhere. That would be a shame. Same goes for Gillum, though he has conceded, and he doesn't deal with the double edged sword of gender that Abrams labors under.
It is very hard to win statewide election as an African American anywhere, especially in the South. In order to win, candidates of color will have to win "enough" white votes. I'm not sure how they get there.
Stacey Abrams has a plausible but not irrefutable case for voter suppression. She is in the position of having to prove a negative, namely that if Brian Kemp had not done what he did, she would be the rightful winner. Frankly, I have some doubts. Stacey Abrams is a very impressive figure, but Georgia is still Georgia. Quite a few otherwise sympathetic "White Liberals" will still cling to the Angry Black Lady tropes and have their doubts about black politicians in general. Exit polls certainly suggest that Abrams didn't do well enough with the same sort of voters that flipped GA-6.
Both Abrams and Andrew Gillum very likely came up against a racial wall. They were running in the South, with populations that contain more than their share of aging whites.
Abrams ended her bid without conceding, which is more than just a rhetorical device. My hope is that she would run for Senate against David Perdue in two years, but to win, she will need two things. First, she will need a more credible Secretary of State than Brian Kemp who will work to make sure that voting is easier than it is now, especially for people of color. Second, she will need to win more white votes. There are some who are taking a "fuck white people" approach, but again that is a misreading of how elections work. Yes, white Georgians overwhelmingly voted for Kemp. But Abrams doesn't have to win white voters; she has to win enough white voters.
My worry is that she will need to build bridges to communities who won't be happy with the non-concession. If she doesn't, her statewide career won't go anywhere. That would be a shame. Same goes for Gillum, though he has conceded, and he doesn't deal with the double edged sword of gender that Abrams labors under.
It is very hard to win statewide election as an African American anywhere, especially in the South. In order to win, candidates of color will have to win "enough" white votes. I'm not sure how they get there.
Friday, November 16, 2018
The Courts
Every time someone points out that Trumpistan feels like 1930s Germany, something like today's court ruling comes along. In this case, Jim Acosta was ordered reinstated to the White House Press Pool by a judge appointed by Donald Trump himself.
Yes, Lou Dobbs' dessicated corpse was on Faux News blathering about illegal aliens voting for Democrats. It combines contempt for democratic norms with contempt for Democrats with Goebbel's "Big Lie." But the Fox-o-Sphere is increasingly insular. It reaches too many people, yet not enough to constitute a majority of Americans. There is "a" fascist America, but America is not fascist.
It's Friday, so we remain interested in when Mueller will drop some indictments. With Kingpin Whitaker in charge of DOJ, Mueller might be biding his time until Democrats get control of the House and there is an AG who isn't a complete Trumpian tool. Still, one can hope that we will at least see Roger Stone's perp walk before too long.
Yes, Lou Dobbs' dessicated corpse was on Faux News blathering about illegal aliens voting for Democrats. It combines contempt for democratic norms with contempt for Democrats with Goebbel's "Big Lie." But the Fox-o-Sphere is increasingly insular. It reaches too many people, yet not enough to constitute a majority of Americans. There is "a" fascist America, but America is not fascist.
It's Friday, so we remain interested in when Mueller will drop some indictments. With Kingpin Whitaker in charge of DOJ, Mueller might be biding his time until Democrats get control of the House and there is an AG who isn't a complete Trumpian tool. Still, one can hope that we will at least see Roger Stone's perp walk before too long.
Thursday, November 15, 2018
No Confidence
Theresa May is not, generally speaking, a sympathetic figure. However, she has been given an impossible task: negotiating a withdrawal from the European Union that will satisfy those who want nothing to do with the EU and those who wanted to remain part of it. Not surprisingly, she has failed to square that circle.
May has negotiated what has been called a "Soft Brexit" that will leave Britain with one foot in and one foot out of the Union. In particular, it will maintain the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Currently, driving from Belfast to Dublin is like driving from Boston to Hartford. A hard Brexit would make it more similar to driving from Detroit to Toronto. Few people on the island of Ireland wanted a hard border, but some did. And some of those are part of Theresa May's coalition government. (Her Conservative Party does not have a majority in the Commons by itself, and has to work with the Democratic Ulster Party.)
The presumption is that Hard Brexiteers will force a vote of no confidence on May's government. This could lead to her resignation and replacement with someone else, or it could lead to new elections. My gut says new elections could lead to a Labour government, or a Labour-lead coalition.
Whatever happens, there is no good result for Brexit. There is no result that will appease those who never embraced it in the first place, nor is there a result that will appease the Hard vs Soft Brexiteers.
This is an ungodly mess, and May has zero good options to clean it up.
May has negotiated what has been called a "Soft Brexit" that will leave Britain with one foot in and one foot out of the Union. In particular, it will maintain the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Currently, driving from Belfast to Dublin is like driving from Boston to Hartford. A hard Brexit would make it more similar to driving from Detroit to Toronto. Few people on the island of Ireland wanted a hard border, but some did. And some of those are part of Theresa May's coalition government. (Her Conservative Party does not have a majority in the Commons by itself, and has to work with the Democratic Ulster Party.)
The presumption is that Hard Brexiteers will force a vote of no confidence on May's government. This could lead to her resignation and replacement with someone else, or it could lead to new elections. My gut says new elections could lead to a Labour government, or a Labour-lead coalition.
Whatever happens, there is no good result for Brexit. There is no result that will appease those who never embraced it in the first place, nor is there a result that will appease the Hard vs Soft Brexiteers.
This is an ungodly mess, and May has zero good options to clean it up.
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
What Do Incoming Freshmen Owe Nancy Pelosi?
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez launched a protest in Nancy Pelosi's office over green energy yesterday, and - HURRAY - we are relieving the 2016 primaries on Twitter!
AOC - as we are apparently now calling her - was an activist. Now she is a lawmaker. Those can require different skills. AOC is very skilled in front of a microphone. Pelosi is not. AOC also freaks out Fox News, than again, so does Pelosi.
There is a legitimate question as to what Pelosi's job should be right now. She's the most effective legislative strategist the Democrats have. The problem is that Democrats can't actually pass anything because of the Senate. One thing Pelosi has been very good at is absorbing blow after blow from hte RW media and ignoring it and moving on. She's incredibly tough.
If Democrats had control of the Senate, I wouldn't hesitate for a moment to make Pelosi Speaker, because she will shepherd through bills that would put Trump in a bad spot. Perhaps she can do the same for McConnell. There is an argument that perhaps she would be a better Majority Leader with someone else assuming the mantle of Speaker. The problem is that the immediate names on the roster share the same problems as Pelosi: they are older and not especially media adept.
Pelosi should meet with the Freshmen and put into place a plan whereby she will groom a next generation of leaders to step in and take her (and Steny Fucking Hoyer's) place. Probably in 2020, maybe in 2022. She will need to make a positive case for why she should be the face of the Democratic Party until we pick a 2020 nominee. But the incoming Freshmen would do well to remember that Nancy Smash got the ACA through an ideologically diverse House. She's earned the right to be Speaker again. Just not forever.
AOC - as we are apparently now calling her - was an activist. Now she is a lawmaker. Those can require different skills. AOC is very skilled in front of a microphone. Pelosi is not. AOC also freaks out Fox News, than again, so does Pelosi.
There is a legitimate question as to what Pelosi's job should be right now. She's the most effective legislative strategist the Democrats have. The problem is that Democrats can't actually pass anything because of the Senate. One thing Pelosi has been very good at is absorbing blow after blow from hte RW media and ignoring it and moving on. She's incredibly tough.
If Democrats had control of the Senate, I wouldn't hesitate for a moment to make Pelosi Speaker, because she will shepherd through bills that would put Trump in a bad spot. Perhaps she can do the same for McConnell. There is an argument that perhaps she would be a better Majority Leader with someone else assuming the mantle of Speaker. The problem is that the immediate names on the roster share the same problems as Pelosi: they are older and not especially media adept.
Pelosi should meet with the Freshmen and put into place a plan whereby she will groom a next generation of leaders to step in and take her (and Steny Fucking Hoyer's) place. Probably in 2020, maybe in 2022. She will need to make a positive case for why she should be the face of the Democratic Party until we pick a 2020 nominee. But the incoming Freshmen would do well to remember that Nancy Smash got the ACA through an ideologically diverse House. She's earned the right to be Speaker again. Just not forever.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
This Is A Problem
Look, there are more important things right now, but Amazon's decision to put its new headquarters in Washington and New York is a problem.
Amazon is effectively unrestrained from normal business considerations because of it's great size and near monopoly over the online retail market. That's a separate issue. The real issue is how geography is killing the post-modern economy.
The primary political chasm today is urban versus rural. Cities are overwhelmingly diverse, forward looking and open. Rural areas are homogenous, traditional and insular. But even within the urban sample, there are winners and losers. NY, LA, Chicago, San Francsico, Washington, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Denver...there's a long list of cities who are facing the 21st century and liking what they see (for the most part).
There are other cities that are decaying: Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore...let's stop there.
Why wouldn't Amazon choose Baltimore over DC? Hell, even south of Baltimore? BWI airport is right there, you have franchises in the NFL and MLB, and the NHL and NBA are just down in DC. What's more, real estate is cheaper. The DC area is one of the most expensive in the country - as is NYC. If Amazon had moved to Detroit, they'd have the run of the place. Same with Kansas City or Memphis.
We talk a lot about how divided America is along red and blue lines, but those lines are not sectional, they are regional. Amazon just made that worse.
UPDATE: Ocasio-Cortez makes some good points.
Amazon is effectively unrestrained from normal business considerations because of it's great size and near monopoly over the online retail market. That's a separate issue. The real issue is how geography is killing the post-modern economy.
The primary political chasm today is urban versus rural. Cities are overwhelmingly diverse, forward looking and open. Rural areas are homogenous, traditional and insular. But even within the urban sample, there are winners and losers. NY, LA, Chicago, San Francsico, Washington, Atlanta, Charlotte, Miami, Denver...there's a long list of cities who are facing the 21st century and liking what they see (for the most part).
There are other cities that are decaying: Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore...let's stop there.
Why wouldn't Amazon choose Baltimore over DC? Hell, even south of Baltimore? BWI airport is right there, you have franchises in the NFL and MLB, and the NHL and NBA are just down in DC. What's more, real estate is cheaper. The DC area is one of the most expensive in the country - as is NYC. If Amazon had moved to Detroit, they'd have the run of the place. Same with Kansas City or Memphis.
We talk a lot about how divided America is along red and blue lines, but those lines are not sectional, they are regional. Amazon just made that worse.
UPDATE: Ocasio-Cortez makes some good points.
Monday, November 12, 2018
Motivated Reasoning
Josh Marshall lays his finger on an important truth here. The closer we get to an election, the more partisans come home. There was talk of a "Kavanaugh Effect," whereby Republicans rallied around the President and the GOP because Bart O'Kavanaugh had been treated so cruelly. The reality is that they were coming home regardless. Now that the election is over (and Democrats did well) his approval will slip some.
If - as I hope and pray - Trump goes down to a ringing defeat in 2020, he will be written out of the GOP history of this era.
If - as I hope and pray - Trump goes down to a ringing defeat in 2020, he will be written out of the GOP history of this era.
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Take A Knee
Donald Trump adroitly leveraged white Americans' outrage over Colin Kaepernick protesting the unnecessary deaths of African Americans by creating a sort of dime store patriotism: cheap, gaudy, loud and ultimately fragile. Trump's decision to skip a commemoration of the end of World War I because of the weather is just a huge glaring example of how fragile that "patriotism" is. Soldiers exist as props for Trump (just ask the thousands of soldiers sent to the boarder as a political stunt).
Clearly, too, Trump is a brittle narcissist. Narcissists are created by psychic wounds that never heal. Each new wound to the ego cuts deeper than the last. Because he was wealthy and a celebrity, Trump has largely avoided consequences for his shitty behavior over the years. It has to be sinking in to him that consequences are coming. His public behavior since election day has been more erratic than usual. Perhaps he just wanted to sulk in his hotel room like the petulant man-child that he is.
Either way, it was a disgraceful display. Could you imagine if this had been Obama?
Clearly, too, Trump is a brittle narcissist. Narcissists are created by psychic wounds that never heal. Each new wound to the ego cuts deeper than the last. Because he was wealthy and a celebrity, Trump has largely avoided consequences for his shitty behavior over the years. It has to be sinking in to him that consequences are coming. His public behavior since election day has been more erratic than usual. Perhaps he just wanted to sulk in his hotel room like the petulant man-child that he is.
Either way, it was a disgraceful display. Could you imagine if this had been Obama?
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Here We Go, Here We Go, Here We Go Again
And so it comes around again: A Florida Recount!
It looks increasingly like Krysten Sinema will win in Arizona. So attention will shift to Florida and possibly Georgia. The problems there are that - unlike Arizona - the GOP establishment seems intent on preventing a full vote count. They are ahead in the three important races and they don't want to imperil that by counting more votes. The fact that counting all the votes is a signature feature of democratic governance isn't really a high priority for them. As the GOP shrinks into a smaller and smaller slice of the electorate, suppressing votes will be increasingly important to them.
Of course, the broader question is about how we run elections. First off, we have a patchwork of state and local agencies trying to run a complicated national event. Then, we add on to that a partisan agenda and the result is Florida.
I hope Stacey Abrams forces a run-off and wins. I would be thrilled if Andrew Gillum won the Florida governor's race.
But boring old Bill Nelson is a six year Senate term that could determine the balance of the Senate in 2021. That's the gold ring.
It looks increasingly like Krysten Sinema will win in Arizona. So attention will shift to Florida and possibly Georgia. The problems there are that - unlike Arizona - the GOP establishment seems intent on preventing a full vote count. They are ahead in the three important races and they don't want to imperil that by counting more votes. The fact that counting all the votes is a signature feature of democratic governance isn't really a high priority for them. As the GOP shrinks into a smaller and smaller slice of the electorate, suppressing votes will be increasingly important to them.
Of course, the broader question is about how we run elections. First off, we have a patchwork of state and local agencies trying to run a complicated national event. Then, we add on to that a partisan agenda and the result is Florida.
I hope Stacey Abrams forces a run-off and wins. I would be thrilled if Andrew Gillum won the Florida governor's race.
But boring old Bill Nelson is a six year Senate term that could determine the balance of the Senate in 2021. That's the gold ring.
Friday, November 9, 2018
Happy Hanukkah
I saw a tweet last night that said Election 2018 was not Christmas, it was Hanukkah.
The reason is that on election night, Democrats felt...OK. When Indiana Senate flipped, that was a holy crap moment. Then more and worse news came in from Florida, Georgia and Texas, Montana and Arizona looked bad, the House wasn't an emphatic a win as some might have hoped.
But over the last few days, some interesting things have been happening. A number of close House races in California, New Jersey and elsewhere have flipped to Blue. Tester pulled out the win in Montana. Last night, Krysten Sinema pulled into the lead in Arizona.
And in Florida...well, it's Florida, isn't it. The Senate race seems destined for a recount and perhaps the governor's race as well. Georgia could head to a run-off.
The Republicans are dusting off the "voter fraud" playbook, because counting all the votes is fraud now, I guess. I mean, it worked in Florida in 2000, why not run that play again.
If Sinema holds on and Nelson somehow wins Florida, that means the Democrats will have lost Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, but won in Nevada and Arizona. Despite an unfavorable map, they managed to hold their losses to a single net seat. That puts the Senate in play in 2020, when Maine and Colorado races where Democrats should be favored, and North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, and, yeah, I'll say it, Texas could all be targets. (They will likely lose Alabama.)
The bad results in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota means that there is no map that gets Democrats to 60 seats in 2020, should a secondary wave sweep Trump and Republicans out of office. But it means that they will have majorities that could pass decent budgets and potentially allow Puerto Rico and DC to become states.
The reason is that on election night, Democrats felt...OK. When Indiana Senate flipped, that was a holy crap moment. Then more and worse news came in from Florida, Georgia and Texas, Montana and Arizona looked bad, the House wasn't an emphatic a win as some might have hoped.
But over the last few days, some interesting things have been happening. A number of close House races in California, New Jersey and elsewhere have flipped to Blue. Tester pulled out the win in Montana. Last night, Krysten Sinema pulled into the lead in Arizona.
And in Florida...well, it's Florida, isn't it. The Senate race seems destined for a recount and perhaps the governor's race as well. Georgia could head to a run-off.
The Republicans are dusting off the "voter fraud" playbook, because counting all the votes is fraud now, I guess. I mean, it worked in Florida in 2000, why not run that play again.
If Sinema holds on and Nelson somehow wins Florida, that means the Democrats will have lost Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, but won in Nevada and Arizona. Despite an unfavorable map, they managed to hold their losses to a single net seat. That puts the Senate in play in 2020, when Maine and Colorado races where Democrats should be favored, and North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, and, yeah, I'll say it, Texas could all be targets. (They will likely lose Alabama.)
The bad results in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota means that there is no map that gets Democrats to 60 seats in 2020, should a secondary wave sweep Trump and Republicans out of office. But it means that they will have majorities that could pass decent budgets and potentially allow Puerto Rico and DC to become states.
Thursday, November 8, 2018
Where The White Women At?
One of the questions/recriminations coming out of some of the disappointing losses in Georgia and Florida was the voting behavior of white women. In Georgia, they broke hard for Brian Kemp. The first assumption about this was that it must be racism. There was probably at least a little/lot of that, but there are a few other observations I'd like to make.
First, they voted for Brian Kemp because they are Republicans. Republicans vote for Republicans. Now, maybe (especially in Georgia) being a Republican is intrinsically wrapped up in the racism of the Solid South. But the most powerful force in politics today is partisan identity. Some of that is wrapped up in ethnic and racial identity, but that's true of both sides. You vote your tribe. As 2016 proved, Republicans will vote for an angry, ambulatory, racist mango as long as he's a Republican.
Secondly, the way we run elections in this country, it's "winner take all." You win with under 50% of the vote (like Jon Tester did), you still get 100% of the seat. As a result, we tend to look at large demographics as "winner take all," too. White women supported Ron DeSantis is true, but not true. A majority did, but when you're talking a group as large as "white women of Florida" you're still seeing hundreds of thousands of white women voting for Andrew Gillum.
Tribe is destiny, but you CAN change your tribe. The challenge for Democrats is to make more Democrats. Trump is actually helping with that. We have two years to make another 5% of the white women switch tribes.
That's the challenge.
First, they voted for Brian Kemp because they are Republicans. Republicans vote for Republicans. Now, maybe (especially in Georgia) being a Republican is intrinsically wrapped up in the racism of the Solid South. But the most powerful force in politics today is partisan identity. Some of that is wrapped up in ethnic and racial identity, but that's true of both sides. You vote your tribe. As 2016 proved, Republicans will vote for an angry, ambulatory, racist mango as long as he's a Republican.
Secondly, the way we run elections in this country, it's "winner take all." You win with under 50% of the vote (like Jon Tester did), you still get 100% of the seat. As a result, we tend to look at large demographics as "winner take all," too. White women supported Ron DeSantis is true, but not true. A majority did, but when you're talking a group as large as "white women of Florida" you're still seeing hundreds of thousands of white women voting for Andrew Gillum.
Tribe is destiny, but you CAN change your tribe. The challenge for Democrats is to make more Democrats. Trump is actually helping with that. We have two years to make another 5% of the white women switch tribes.
That's the challenge.
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Everyone Has Something To Be Unhappy About
As I wrote last night, Trumpist politics worked. To a degree. Trump targeted a number of Senate seats held by Democrats in Deep Red States, and he may have pulled off a remarkable string of victories in Indiana, Missouri, Montana and Florida. Florida, Montana and Arizona are all still counting votes, but Republicans have leads, however small, and it's unlikely given what we've seen that Democrats will hold Florida and Montana and flip Arizona. Those are six year terms and it just unbelievably sucks. It sucks that Trump's racist, xenophobic politics worked. It sucks that even if Democrats win in 2020, they won't get to the 60 seats they need to pass meaningful legislation.
However...
In many other ways, Trumpist politics failed. When we are done counting votes, my guess is that Democrats will have won about the "national popular vote" by about 8%. That's a landslide. What's more, if those numbers continue through 2020, there is simply no way Trump retains the White House. Given that Democrats now can conduct meaningful oversight and expose some of the corruption present in all levels of this administration, it's unlikely that things will get better for Trump. Despite a booming economy, he remains a remarkably unpopular president. If the economic bubble bursts - and expansions don't go on forever - I can see a case where he doesn't even run in 2020. But if he does run, he wins the GOP nomination. And he loses the general, providing Democrats don't fuck it up.
It was absolutely critical for Democrats to win the House. It was critical to begin re-erecting the "Blue Wall" in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Important gains were consolidated on ballot initiatives. There's an openly lesbian, Native American congresswoman from Kansas of all places.
But the idea of an expanding map into Georgia, Texas and Arizona looks premature at best. Florida remains a place where Democratic hopes go to die.
It will be interesting to look at exit polls and demographics to see who stuck with Trump. Age, in particular, seems like an important metric. Did young people vote like we thought they would? How old is the Trumpenproletariat?
Still, I feel relieved that American Democracy isn't irrevocably broken, while I'm literally nauseous that Trump's naked appeal to fearmongering and racism works so well on so many of my fellow Americans.
However...
In many other ways, Trumpist politics failed. When we are done counting votes, my guess is that Democrats will have won about the "national popular vote" by about 8%. That's a landslide. What's more, if those numbers continue through 2020, there is simply no way Trump retains the White House. Given that Democrats now can conduct meaningful oversight and expose some of the corruption present in all levels of this administration, it's unlikely that things will get better for Trump. Despite a booming economy, he remains a remarkably unpopular president. If the economic bubble bursts - and expansions don't go on forever - I can see a case where he doesn't even run in 2020. But if he does run, he wins the GOP nomination. And he loses the general, providing Democrats don't fuck it up.
It was absolutely critical for Democrats to win the House. It was critical to begin re-erecting the "Blue Wall" in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Important gains were consolidated on ballot initiatives. There's an openly lesbian, Native American congresswoman from Kansas of all places.
But the idea of an expanding map into Georgia, Texas and Arizona looks premature at best. Florida remains a place where Democratic hopes go to die.
It will be interesting to look at exit polls and demographics to see who stuck with Trump. Age, in particular, seems like an important metric. Did young people vote like we thought they would? How old is the Trumpenproletariat?
Still, I feel relieved that American Democracy isn't irrevocably broken, while I'm literally nauseous that Trump's naked appeal to fearmongering and racism works so well on so many of my fellow Americans.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
By All Accounts
The Democrats will win the House. Maybe a lot of those tight races will go their way and they get a nice majority. Who knows? A gavel in the hand of Adam Schiff is the most important thing. Quite a few governorships will change hands, which will help with re-districting. Florida restored the right to vote to over 1.5 million people. That might bear fruit in 2020, but 2018 looks headed to a recount.
In some ways? It worked. The racism and the xenophobia and the strong man antics. It worked. It preserved the Senate for the GOP. Trump will be able to appoint Kris Koback Attorney General. He won't get impeached. He can nominate Jeannine Pirro to the Supreme Court. It worked.
I remain hopeful that Democrats will win the House and use that leverage to remind people every day that Trump is an authoritarian kleptocrat. But the American people? A large part of them are completely OK with racism and sexism. Joe Manchin won and Joe Donnelly lost, because one took a stand against rape and the other didn't.
The pipe bombs, the shooting of African Americans and Jews...it didn't move the needle. Not enough.
I'm profoundly disappointed in my fellow Americans.
In some ways? It worked. The racism and the xenophobia and the strong man antics. It worked. It preserved the Senate for the GOP. Trump will be able to appoint Kris Koback Attorney General. He won't get impeached. He can nominate Jeannine Pirro to the Supreme Court. It worked.
I remain hopeful that Democrats will win the House and use that leverage to remind people every day that Trump is an authoritarian kleptocrat. But the American people? A large part of them are completely OK with racism and sexism. Joe Manchin won and Joe Donnelly lost, because one took a stand against rape and the other didn't.
The pipe bombs, the shooting of African Americans and Jews...it didn't move the needle. Not enough.
I'm profoundly disappointed in my fellow Americans.
Today Is Going To Suck
You will hear rumors and whispers of rumors and exit polls that say surprising things and on and on.
Vote.
Drive someone else to vote.
Pray.
Turn off the news until the returns start to come in.
Pray some more.
Vote.
Drive someone else to vote.
Pray.
Turn off the news until the returns start to come in.
Pray some more.
Monday, November 5, 2018
The Landscape
No one who wants to predict things in politics wants to face another 2016. The widely held - but false - perception that the polling was catastrophically wrong means that no one trusts the polls. That, combined with the permanent worries of Democrats, makes this SNL bit perhaps a bit too close to home.
The reality is that the polls weren't that wrong in 2016. Any "errors" in the polling were within the margin of error. Clinton was winning by 6%, then the Comey letter came out, combined with the usual tightening, and suddenly her lead was down to 3%. She "won" by about 2.5%. State level polls that would have seen cracks in the "Blue Wall" usually aren't very helpful in the last week, so they aren't done. Having said that, Clinton ended her campaign with a blitz of Pennsylvania.
So, we enter the final 48 hours with a historical sense of dread. That - combined with the gerrymandering from 2010 - means that Democrats won't feel comfortable with any polling leads until the final votes are tabulated and they have at least won the House.
However, the smart money has the Democrats winning the House back. The smart money was wrong in 2016. I know. But the reality is that when both parties agree on things, it's usually true. And both parties expect the Democrats to win the House. There is a recency bias in play from 2016; the idea that Trump has "hacked" the experts and defied gravity. That is bullshit. There were a ton of people who voted for Trump with their noses held or with who didn't vote because they hated Clinton. By all estimations, there is going to be massive turnout in this election. That has to help the party challenging the party in power. The news of the last week has been especially damning to Republicans.
Yes, everything could go wrong. That's a permanent feature of Democratic politics. What's more, the gerrymandering - both natural and partisan - could blunt the impact of the Blue Wave.
But this feels very much like 2006. You have a broadly unpopular president of a broadly unpopular party pushing broadly unpopular policies. The big worry, of course, is that Democrats win the "popular vote" by 7% and still can't flip the House. That will lead to the GOP doubling down (as if that was possible) on the racist politics that Trump has pursued the past few weeks. Less oversight. More corruption. A sense that democracy itself has failed.
Those are the stakes. That's why so many former Republicans are saying it's important for Democrats to sweep into power tomorrow.
Your job is easy. Just vote, damnit.
The reality is that the polls weren't that wrong in 2016. Any "errors" in the polling were within the margin of error. Clinton was winning by 6%, then the Comey letter came out, combined with the usual tightening, and suddenly her lead was down to 3%. She "won" by about 2.5%. State level polls that would have seen cracks in the "Blue Wall" usually aren't very helpful in the last week, so they aren't done. Having said that, Clinton ended her campaign with a blitz of Pennsylvania.
So, we enter the final 48 hours with a historical sense of dread. That - combined with the gerrymandering from 2010 - means that Democrats won't feel comfortable with any polling leads until the final votes are tabulated and they have at least won the House.
However, the smart money has the Democrats winning the House back. The smart money was wrong in 2016. I know. But the reality is that when both parties agree on things, it's usually true. And both parties expect the Democrats to win the House. There is a recency bias in play from 2016; the idea that Trump has "hacked" the experts and defied gravity. That is bullshit. There were a ton of people who voted for Trump with their noses held or with who didn't vote because they hated Clinton. By all estimations, there is going to be massive turnout in this election. That has to help the party challenging the party in power. The news of the last week has been especially damning to Republicans.
Yes, everything could go wrong. That's a permanent feature of Democratic politics. What's more, the gerrymandering - both natural and partisan - could blunt the impact of the Blue Wave.
But this feels very much like 2006. You have a broadly unpopular president of a broadly unpopular party pushing broadly unpopular policies. The big worry, of course, is that Democrats win the "popular vote" by 7% and still can't flip the House. That will lead to the GOP doubling down (as if that was possible) on the racist politics that Trump has pursued the past few weeks. Less oversight. More corruption. A sense that democracy itself has failed.
Those are the stakes. That's why so many former Republicans are saying it's important for Democrats to sweep into power tomorrow.
Your job is easy. Just vote, damnit.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Dear Lord, Spare Me From Hot Takes
The idea that a Democratic House, with subpoena power to investigate the most corrupt administration in history, is a good thing for Trump is laughable.
Trump loses the House (and I'm calling a 50-50 Senate) and he will be besieged by scandal and bad news. Yes, his Deplorables will continue to love him, but who the hell cares what the Alt Right cares anymore (aside from the NY Times and their endless Cleetus Safaris).
More Trump scandals means two things: continually fired up Democrats and dispirited Republicans.
Bring it.
Trump loses the House (and I'm calling a 50-50 Senate) and he will be besieged by scandal and bad news. Yes, his Deplorables will continue to love him, but who the hell cares what the Alt Right cares anymore (aside from the NY Times and their endless Cleetus Safaris).
More Trump scandals means two things: continually fired up Democrats and dispirited Republicans.
Bring it.
You Shall Know Them By The Fruit They Bear
Let's not forget that Donald Trump JUNIOR is also a collosal shitbag.
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Could It Be?
It is in Democrat's nature to worry. Florida 2000. Tea Party 2010. Trump 2016. The contrary data points (2006, 2008, 2012) don't register nearly as strongly.
In particular, you're getting a lot of "I don't trust the polls, because of 2016" handwringing. This neglects to note that most polls captured the collapse in support for Clinton that came with the Comey Letter.
We are now just four days from determining the future of this country. It's an extraordinary moment. What is notable is how Republicans are approaching it. Basically, they are doing triage and essentially conceding the House. There is talk that GOP stalwarts like Steve King and Don Young could be on the chopping block. Early voting numbers are incredibly illusory and misleading, but when they look huge, you have to notice. Here is the increase in youth turnout:
Arizona +217%
Florida +131%
Georgia +415%
Nevada +364%
Tennessee +767%
Texas +448%
(Thank you, Taylor Swift.)
If those trends in youth voting are real, then the Senate is in play. Florida and Missouri will hold, you lose North Dakota, you gain Tennessee, Texas, Arizona and Nevada. That isn't a guarantee or even a prediction, but it is certainly a possibility.
Winning the House is critical, because it finally gives a political branch subpeona power to expose Trumpian corruption.
Winning the Senate means no more Brett Kavanaughs, no more court packing.
For God's sake, people. Vote.
In particular, you're getting a lot of "I don't trust the polls, because of 2016" handwringing. This neglects to note that most polls captured the collapse in support for Clinton that came with the Comey Letter.
We are now just four days from determining the future of this country. It's an extraordinary moment. What is notable is how Republicans are approaching it. Basically, they are doing triage and essentially conceding the House. There is talk that GOP stalwarts like Steve King and Don Young could be on the chopping block. Early voting numbers are incredibly illusory and misleading, but when they look huge, you have to notice. Here is the increase in youth turnout:
Arizona +217%
Florida +131%
Georgia +415%
Nevada +364%
Tennessee +767%
Texas +448%
(Thank you, Taylor Swift.)
If those trends in youth voting are real, then the Senate is in play. Florida and Missouri will hold, you lose North Dakota, you gain Tennessee, Texas, Arizona and Nevada. That isn't a guarantee or even a prediction, but it is certainly a possibility.
Winning the House is critical, because it finally gives a political branch subpeona power to expose Trumpian corruption.
Winning the Senate means no more Brett Kavanaughs, no more court packing.
For God's sake, people. Vote.
Friday, November 2, 2018
Fear Works On The Lizard Brain
One of the most popular courses at my college was called "Earth, Moon and Planets" (or more popularly, Earth, Moon and Everybody). It was an introductory course to the creation of the universe and it ended with an examination of how the human brain evolved. At the base of the brain, over the spine is the "Lizard Brain." It's responsible for basic fight or flight mechanisms. See something, do something. Lizards aren't real big on long term planning. They react to stimuli.
Trump - and by extension the GOP - is closing the argument for the midterm elections with a massive blast of fear. Migrants are the main ooga booga, but he's also warning about the standard Republican bugaboos: Nancy Pelosi, George Soros and so on. This is because the Republican policy agenda has run out of juice. The tax cuts aren't working, because the real issue is stagnant wages, and that would require government action to fix.
Ed Burmila is a Cassandra. His argument that Democratic control of the House and/or Senate will lead to more violence by aggrieved white Boomer who are mainlining Trump's racist diatribes is hard to discount. Yet, as former Republican Max Boot points out, the boil has to be lanced. The poison has to be drained.
Trump - and by extension the GOP - is closing the argument for the midterm elections with a massive blast of fear. Migrants are the main ooga booga, but he's also warning about the standard Republican bugaboos: Nancy Pelosi, George Soros and so on. This is because the Republican policy agenda has run out of juice. The tax cuts aren't working, because the real issue is stagnant wages, and that would require government action to fix.
Ed Burmila is a Cassandra. His argument that Democratic control of the House and/or Senate will lead to more violence by aggrieved white Boomer who are mainlining Trump's racist diatribes is hard to discount. Yet, as former Republican Max Boot points out, the boil has to be lanced. The poison has to be drained.
Thursday, November 1, 2018
What Is The Modern Republican Party?
Paul Campos links to a Paul Krugman piece that makes a series of important points.
First, idiots like Jacob Wohl and James O'Keefe have grown up inside the hothouse atmosphere of Fox News/Breitbart/NewsMax. They are incapable of seeing the world through any other lens. Pizzagate and Benghazi aren't crude tactics to gain electoral advantage: they are the gospel truth. When confronted by actual standards of objective reality, their work crumbles. This does not bode well for the future of the "Conservative Movement."
Secondly, the GOP, post-Reagan, has assumed that the popularity of their party rests on the popularity of their policies, that what their voters really want is to roll back the regulatory state and give more money to the capital class. What Trump has exposed is that what Republican voters really like is Hippie Punching and Minority Suppression. "Owning the Libtards" is pretty much the only consistent position Donald Trump has taken. Voter Suppression is now enshrined in GOP politics. More and more naked appeals to racist and anti-Semitic rhetoric are staples of current Trumpist strategy.
What Paul Ryan woke up to (and why he's slinking off to K Street before voters can kick him out) is that no one cares about his Ayn Rand fetish for slashing social services. Those WWC voters who support the GOP want their stuff. They want Medicare and Social Security and schools and roads and all sorts of stuff. As long as brown people don't get them, too.
As the "Small Government Conservative" fades from the political landscape, what takes his place? What happens once the GOP is ONLY left with racism and ethno-nationalism?
Terrifying.
First, idiots like Jacob Wohl and James O'Keefe have grown up inside the hothouse atmosphere of Fox News/Breitbart/NewsMax. They are incapable of seeing the world through any other lens. Pizzagate and Benghazi aren't crude tactics to gain electoral advantage: they are the gospel truth. When confronted by actual standards of objective reality, their work crumbles. This does not bode well for the future of the "Conservative Movement."
Secondly, the GOP, post-Reagan, has assumed that the popularity of their party rests on the popularity of their policies, that what their voters really want is to roll back the regulatory state and give more money to the capital class. What Trump has exposed is that what Republican voters really like is Hippie Punching and Minority Suppression. "Owning the Libtards" is pretty much the only consistent position Donald Trump has taken. Voter Suppression is now enshrined in GOP politics. More and more naked appeals to racist and anti-Semitic rhetoric are staples of current Trumpist strategy.
What Paul Ryan woke up to (and why he's slinking off to K Street before voters can kick him out) is that no one cares about his Ayn Rand fetish for slashing social services. Those WWC voters who support the GOP want their stuff. They want Medicare and Social Security and schools and roads and all sorts of stuff. As long as brown people don't get them, too.
As the "Small Government Conservative" fades from the political landscape, what takes his place? What happens once the GOP is ONLY left with racism and ethno-nationalism?
Terrifying.
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