As I wrote last night, Trumpist politics worked. To a degree. Trump targeted a number of Senate seats held by Democrats in Deep Red States, and he may have pulled off a remarkable string of victories in Indiana, Missouri, Montana and Florida. Florida, Montana and Arizona are all still counting votes, but Republicans have leads, however small, and it's unlikely given what we've seen that Democrats will hold Florida and Montana and flip Arizona. Those are six year terms and it just unbelievably sucks. It sucks that Trump's racist, xenophobic politics worked. It sucks that even if Democrats win in 2020, they won't get to the 60 seats they need to pass meaningful legislation.
However...
In many other ways, Trumpist politics failed. When we are done counting votes, my guess is that Democrats will have won about the "national popular vote" by about 8%. That's a landslide. What's more, if those numbers continue through 2020, there is simply no way Trump retains the White House. Given that Democrats now can conduct meaningful oversight and expose some of the corruption present in all levels of this administration, it's unlikely that things will get better for Trump. Despite a booming economy, he remains a remarkably unpopular president. If the economic bubble bursts - and expansions don't go on forever - I can see a case where he doesn't even run in 2020. But if he does run, he wins the GOP nomination. And he loses the general, providing Democrats don't fuck it up.
It was absolutely critical for Democrats to win the House. It was critical to begin re-erecting the "Blue Wall" in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Important gains were consolidated on ballot initiatives. There's an openly lesbian, Native American congresswoman from Kansas of all places.
But the idea of an expanding map into Georgia, Texas and Arizona looks premature at best. Florida remains a place where Democratic hopes go to die.
It will be interesting to look at exit polls and demographics to see who stuck with Trump. Age, in particular, seems like an important metric. Did young people vote like we thought they would? How old is the Trumpenproletariat?
Still, I feel relieved that American Democracy isn't irrevocably broken, while I'm literally nauseous that Trump's naked appeal to fearmongering and racism works so well on so many of my fellow Americans.
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