The Landscape

No one who wants to predict things in politics wants to face another 2016.  The widely held - but false - perception that the polling was catastrophically wrong means that no one trusts the polls.  That, combined with the permanent worries of Democrats, makes this SNL bit perhaps a bit too close to home.

The reality is that the polls weren't that wrong in 2016. Any "errors" in the polling were within the margin of error.  Clinton was winning by 6%, then the Comey letter came out, combined with the usual tightening, and suddenly her lead was down to 3%.  She "won" by about 2.5%.  State level polls that would have seen cracks in the "Blue Wall" usually aren't very helpful in the last week, so they aren't done.  Having said that, Clinton ended her campaign with a blitz of Pennsylvania.

So, we enter the final 48 hours with a historical sense of dread.  That - combined with the gerrymandering from 2010 - means that Democrats won't feel comfortable with any polling leads until the final votes are tabulated and they have at least won the House.

However, the smart money has the Democrats winning the House back.  The smart money was wrong in 2016.  I know.  But the reality is that when both parties agree on things, it's usually true.  And both parties expect the Democrats to win the House.  There is a recency bias in play from 2016; the idea that Trump has "hacked" the experts and defied gravity.  That is bullshit.  There were a ton of people who voted for Trump with their noses held or with who didn't vote because they hated Clinton.  By all estimations, there is going to be massive turnout in this election.  That has to help the party challenging the party in power.  The news of the last week has been especially damning to Republicans. 

Yes, everything could go wrong.  That's a permanent feature of Democratic politics. What's more, the gerrymandering - both natural and partisan - could blunt the impact of the Blue Wave. 

But this feels very much like 2006.  You have a broadly unpopular president of a broadly unpopular party pushing broadly unpopular policies.  The big worry, of course, is that Democrats win the "popular vote" by 7% and still can't flip the House.  That will lead to the GOP doubling down (as if that was possible) on the racist politics that Trump has pursued the past few weeks.  Less oversight.  More corruption.  A sense that democracy itself has failed.

Those are the stakes.  That's why so many former Republicans are saying it's important for Democrats to sweep into power tomorrow.

Your job is easy.  Just vote, damnit.