Since everyone is wondering about Iran, I might as well weigh in.
Iranian leadership is not stupid. They do not want a full scale war with the US, as it would devastate Iran. But they are also facing massive unrest over economic hardships (caused mostly, but not exclusively by US sanctions). They will want to respond in a way that leads to less than escalation to full scale war, but clearly demonstrates their resolve to their own people. If Trump responds by bombing an Iranian city...that works OK for the regime, as martyrs are incredibly important to Shia theology.
My guess is that they will hit back in two ways. First, they will hit some soft targets to make everyone feel unsafe. Maybe cyber attacks. Maybe a suicide bombing near a US embassy.
Secondly, they will likely hit a US ally in the region, most likely Saudi Arabia. If they were to knock out Saudi oil capacity, it would send oil prices skyrocketing around the world and cause some of the same economic pain that Iranians are suffering through right now.
I think the only thing that leads us to a direct out-and-out war with Iran is miscalculation. I truly don't think Trump wants a war. I know the Iranians don't. But both sides are erratic and untrustworthy in their decision making. If we go to war, it will be because we blundered into one. Which is completely possible, given what we know about decision making in Trump's White House.
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