Historical comparisons are always a bit stretched, but this is a solid one. Chait is perhaps uncharacteristically pessimistic in noting that there was nothing pre-ordained in McCarthy's fall. If you want a more optimistic take, I can offer it.
Chait notes that McCarthy became a liability when a Republican headed the executive branch, and his attacks on the Army and George Marshall lacked partisan utility. A counter-argument could be that, burdened with responsibility, McCarthy flamed out under a different form of press scrutiny. As a back-bench bomb thrower, McCarthy's wild accusations were the point. Once he had the burden of actually trying to prove his attacks, he withered.
Trump ran on 2016 on being "not of Washington." A certain segment of the population thought, "What's the worst that can happen? Let's elect a business man." A certain segment of that segment has reached the conclusion that the worst can indeed be bad. These are the suburban voters who returned a Democratic House majority in 2018.
Yes, there will be people who support Trump until the bitter end. Republicans Senators will back Trump out of fear of this majority of Republicans who venerate this orange-hued clown. But that doesn't mean he will get re-elected.
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