For years, the primary tool of Fox News and Republican politics in general has been to stoke populist fears via the "othering" of outgroups. One way they did this leading up to the 2014 midterms was to incessantly stoke the fear of the ebola outbreak in West Africa. Here's the thing: ebola, as it currently exists, is not a big threat to people with a developed health care infrastructure. Even Nigeria, with its litany of governmental problems, was able to stop ebola in its tracks. Zika? West Nile? All of these foreign sounding illnesses were bricks in the foundation of Trump's anti-international appeal.
Anyway, now we are faced with the coronavirus.
The coronavirus is in many ways the opposite of ebola. Unlike ebola, it's really easy to catch. Unlike ebola, it's not likely to kill you. So we have an illness that might be as contagious as the flu (yikes) but unlikely to kill people who don't have an additional underlying health issue (phew). Of course, 2% mortality is a problem when the disease is this contagious. It is currently on the verge of being a pandemic. That word is very scary. Thousands could die. The fact that thousands die every year from the flu is a fact we gloss over, because...pandemic. (The flu is sort of a pandemic every year.)
The coronavirus is exactly the sort of unplanned crisis that Trump and his team of second raters have largely been spared. Most of his crises have been planned and limited. His trade wars have been disastrous for American farmers, but he has simply given them massive subsidies to make up for (some of) it. His assaults on the rule of law and American-led international institutions have not met their acid tests yet. Meanwhile, Trump has actively taken measures that will make this situation worse.
Instead, Trump has coasted along on an economy fueled by low taxes, low interest rates and the inertial momentum of the recovery from 2008-9.
The coronavirus has the potential to change that. In the wake of trade wars and Brexit, international trade has taken some body blows. Supply chains have taken some small hits. But the coronavirus has the potential to create massive problems in a global integrated economy. Here - if most economists are correct - is the potential to expose the fallacy at the heart of Trump's economic nationalism and American First stance. Not to mention his basic incompetence.
The Dow collapsed yesterday, and while of course Wall Street isn't Main Street, the markets are capturing real concerns about a potential downturn caused by repercussions from reduced international trade. There is only so much tax cuts and cheap interest rates can do in the face of reduced supply and demand.
Trump's approval rating has been fairly steady in the 42% range, give or take. If we tip into a recession, it is very likely that it dips into the high 30s, even with partisan loyalty. His blind disregard for experts and intelligent policy is likely to have an impact on how the government responds to this crisis, when it inevitably reaches our shores. The medical establishment will do their best work, but government coordination at the federal level will ultimately be necessary. Can you imagine Trump coordinating that?
Trump rose to power via his contempt for global institutions. He rode the wave of angst over a changing, interconnected world. It could be precisely a microscopic entity from that global, interconnected world that ultimately sinks him.
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