Trump has one main advantage as we begin to actually see the 2020 presidential contest take shape. The economy is doing quite well. However, the economy has been doing quite well since 2009 bottomed out. It took a long time to grow out of the Great Recession, but the growth did start almost 11 years ago. Growth does not continue indefinitely. Unfortunately for Democrats, Trump and the Federal Reserve have been engaged in a "sugar rush" economy. Massive, deficit-fueled tax cuts for the rich combined with low interest rates have created a boomlet within the growth cycle. The question is: can it last?
First, no one should root for a recession, but the boom inevitably is followed by a bust. As 2008 showed, if the bubble gets too big, the resulting crash is all the more painful. Better to correct sooner rather than later. However, the Fed has largely stripped itself of tools to address any future recessions.
Simply put, the best hope for Democrats is a quick recession that kicks off this spring. Fall is the typical time we see massive corrections, and that would largely doom Trump's re-election bid, but since the Fed has few interest rate adjustments left to make, it will require fiscal stimulus to get the economy going, and that takes a while. That would likely make 2022 into a repeat of 2010.
If the economy continues to hum along, Trump could still lose. But it would be best if the sugar rush economy went into a brief dip.
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