Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Reconciling With Sanders

It certainly looks like Bernie Sanders is in a commanding position in the Democratic primaries.  Certainly, as long as Biden/Buttigieg/Klobuchar divide the moderate vote, it opens a broad path for him.  At this point, Klobuchar in particular needs to reassess what her role in the race is.  Sanders seems set to rack up numerous primary wins without winning a majority of the vote in any of them.  Then, we have issue of his supporters especially toxic form of politics, but that's for another day.

Matthew Yglesias lays out a strong argument for why mainstream Democrats shouldn't fear Bernie Sanders.  For the most part, they are solid arguments.  Sanders' rhetoric rarely matches his actual political practice. He is not a communist bogeyman trying to force you into re-education camps. 

But the main consideration of most Democratic voters (and quite a few independents and Never Trump Republicans) is whether the Democrats will nominate someone who can beat Trump.  How can Sanders convince THEM to calm down and accept that he will be only as radical as the Senate allows him to be? His rhetoric has largely closed the door to reasoned incrementalism.

Much of the Democratic gains in 2018 were in the suburbs, among college educated voters repelled by Trump's vulgarity and rank corruption. Sanders could very well pick off some WWC voters while losing a comparable (or greater) number of those suburban Lean-GOP voters that helped elect a Democratic House.  How do you convince them to show up and vote for a guy they don't really trust?

Sanders' campaign has been atrocious at reaching out to non-acolytes. They actively alienate exactly the sort of voters that have recently flocked to the Democratic party.  Is Trump's unique awfulness enough to get them to show up and vote for Sanders (and all the down-ballot candidates)?

The Democratic primary field was filled with "good but not great" candidates.  Sanders certainly qualifies.  His ability to motivate certain hard to motivate voters is impressive and hopefully will continue through November, whether he's the nominee or not. The question is how hard will he work to assuage the fears of his skeptics?  And how will he manage to muzzle his fiercest attack dogs like David Sirota and Nina Turner, who seem more intent on rubbing salt in the wounds of Democrats than training their fire on the GOP?

Combine all the Dem candidates strengths (Warren's policy chops, Buttigieg's appeal to moderates, Biden's appeal to African Americans, Sanders' ability to motivate young voters, Booker's speaking ability) and you get a great candidate.  Democrats will not be nominating a great candidate, no matter what.  That candidate will be flawed.  Sanders included.

Will Sanders' flaws be enough to get Trump a second term?  And can American democracy survive that?

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