It's 2016, It Will Always Be 2016

Dan Drezner hits on an important truth: Donald Trump is in a terrible position for reelection. We've got enough polling to see that Biden currently enjoys a roughly 6 point lead over Trump. This is significant because Trump is "enjoying" some of the highest job approval ratings of his presidency from the tail end of a rally-around-the-flag effect from the Covid-19 crisis.

As Drezner points out, the news is not going to get better for Team Trump anytime soon. Even if - and this is impossible - we had a cure tomorrow that could be given to everyone on the planet in the next three weeks, the economy will still take a year or two to recover.  Trump's botched handling of the pandemic in February will come under more scrutiny, not less, once this is over. The odds that his administration has not engaged is mob style extortion of states is near zero.  The odds that someone in his administration has not personally profited off this crisis is near zero. Once the crisis ebbs a little, state governments will be free to actually relate the behavior of the Trumpists. Right now, they have to have a little deference so that they can still get needed medical equipment and PPE.

Trump broke punditry in 2016, when he pulled off the impossible.  He not only won fewer votes than Hillary Clinton, he won fewer votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012. He managed to run an inside straight and break the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Since then, both states have trended away from the GOP. In 2018, Pennsylvania went from a 13-5 GOP House delegation to a 9-9 split.  This was because of redistricting, but Democrats won 500,000 more votes than the GOP in PA in 2018 (55%). In Michigan, Democrats won the popular vote by 300,000 votes (52%).  In Wisconsin, Democrats won by about 200,000 votes (53%).  Let's keep going.  Democrats won 50.3% of the vote in Arizona. They won 50.5% in Iowa. They were within striking distance in North Carolina, Georgia and, yes, Texas. 

Meanwhile, the President has been impeached, botched a pandemic response and the economy is in the shitter. 

In 2016, Trump made a pitch of "What do you have to lose?"  We now know the answer to that, and while Cult 45 will continue to make noise, Trump is losing.