Survey USA took a look at the Georgia runoffs. There is some good news for Democrats, in that it looks like 41,000 people - mostly young people and African Americans - have voted in the runoff who didn't vote in November. The Survey USA poll suggests that a non-negligible number of conservatives might stay home because "the vote is rigged."
But you know what? Who the hell knows? One thing I think we can say with some certainty: Trump voters don't talk to pollsters. They were missed in both 2016 and 2020. In 2018, Democrats ran ahead of the polling with Trump only on the ballot by proxy.
For my entire life, the dynamic has been that Republicans always show up to vote and Democrats only show up for presidential elections. With Democrats making strong inroads with college educated whites, that dynamic could flip with profound implications for the country. Perhaps Trump's unique boorish appeal to WWC voters masked the demographic decline of conservatism and with him gone (at least until 2024) Democrats might have an advantage. Or maybe not! It's a mystery.
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