Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Sunday, January 17, 2021

That Other Crisis

 Remember the pandemic? We are entering the really fraught stages where new variants arise because of the increased number of cases. As more people transmit the virus, more opportunities arise for mutation. Every time a virus moves from host to host, the opportunity for mutation increases. There's a certain accelerated Darwinian dynamic at play. If a mutation is beneficial - like the UK variant that makes the virus more contagious - it will replicate more efficiently. 

So far, we've been spared the real nightmare. Covid is fairly contagious, but it's not measles. It doesn't persist for long on surfaces and even on surfaces it seems to not be very contagious. Masks have seemed to make a real difference in slowing transmission. And the fact is, most people will not die of this disease.

The nightmare is a new variant that is not only more contagious but resistant to the new vaccine or more lethal. So far, the lethality of the virus is less troubling (at least to me) that "long haul Covid" that permanently damages your health. If we discover a more contagious AND more lethal variant of the virus, we are likely truly screwed because the learned experience of many people with Covid is that it's not really a big deal. If public health officials say that we have a new variant that can kill, say, 10% of people who get it, everything has shown that millions will ignore the science.



No comments: