The Emerging Democratic Majority

 John Judis and Ruy Teixeira wrote a book call The Emerging Democratic Majority in 2002 (here is the summary from 2012, after Obama's re-election). Teixeira predicted that the "Obama Coalition" was here to stay...and then 2016 happened. Of course, the "Obama Coalition" did provide a plurality of the electorate for Hillary Clinton, but Trump upended things by breaking the Blue Wall. John Judis revisited it in August.

I find Judis' analysis fairly unconvincing (and not just in this instance). Judis tends to be very much a deterministic materialist, which is to say, everything is explained by economics. In his analysis, Obama and the Democrats lost support in 2010, because their policy portfolio wasn't economically populist enough. Maybe. Or maybe the absolute freakout by the Tea Party over being given health care has more to do with "those people" benefitting from government programs. I'm not saying it's ALL racial resentment, but it sure explains a lot.

It would be easy and wrong to read to much into this week's runoff in the Georgia election. In many ways, the future of competent governance is on the ballot. If Democrats win, they can control the legislative agenda and force the GOP to vote against popular programs. At the very least, Cabinet members and judges can get hearings and confirmed. 

Early voting is once again vigorous. Over 42% of registered voters in Fulton County have voted, as have over 40% of Cobb County and 46% of Dekalb.  But over 49% of Fayette County - overwhelmingly white - has also voted. Non-Hispanic Blacks and Non-Hispanic Whites are voting at roughly the same rate. Over 118,000 voters have voted who did not vote in November and total turnout is over 3,000,000. A little under 5,000,000 voted in November. 

Runoffs are usually low voter turnout affairs, and we won't know whether that largely holds true depending on in-person voting later this week. Maybe everyone has already voted and election day only adds a million votes. Maybe turnout matches or exceeds November.

The really interesting test case is for what the "Trump Voter" means for the future of the Republican Party. It is clear that Trump energized a segment of the electorate that is hard to measure via polls and votes somewhat irregularly. This "working class" demographic (better understood as Whites Without College, some of whom are quite well off) was once part of the Democratic Coalition. Race, sexuality, gender issues...all have shorn these voters from the Democratic Party. As they have left, college educated suburbanites (especially, but not exclusively women) have filled in the gaps. 

Those college educated voters are more dependable voters, especially in lower turnout elections. The usual dynamic was this: Democrats did great in Presidential years, with higher voter turnout. In midterm elections, Republicans did better, because their voters voted. If that dynamic erodes, with Democrats being able to count on strong support in midterm elections, there is a chance for Democrats to retain a working majority in the House for the foreseeable future.