Learned Helplessness

 Yesterday, we had a lot of blazing hot takes about whether or not the House Select Committee on January 6th would enforce its subpoenas. Twitter was full of goalpost moving, as Rick Wilson said they wouldn't enforce them, then the Committee said they would, then everyone said, "Well, why aren't they in jail right now!" These sort of takes bled off Twitter into the blogosphere.

For two years, Trump's control of the Justice Department meant that any effort by House Democrats to gain oversight ran into a stonewall. This created a sense that Trump would never be held accountable. While he was impeached twice, he never came close to being removed from office. He has committed - by any reasonable account - a host of financial crimes, both as president and before.

Now, we have ample evidence that the crimes of the rich are poorly prosecuted or enforced, so a certain cynicism is warranted. However, financial crimes prosecution does proceed very slowly because they are usually so complicated. Plus, if your target is the former president, you had better be damned sure your case is airtight. A certain caution is warranted.

The assumption that there will never be any prosecution of Trump seems based on a learned helplessness during his presidency. He has escaped so many scandals and crimes that he seems impervious to consequences. A good example was how "everyone" was outraged that the January 6th insurrectionists were going to skate because they were rural white Trump supporters. The FBI did the methodical work of rounding people up, charges have been filed and people are starting to go to jail. This takes time, even for an open and shut case. Financial crimes, in particular, take time.

However, if I wanted to damage Trump the most, I would wait until after the midterms to file charges. You want to depress Trumpist turnout next fall. Without their orange God-King on the ticket, why would they vote for Chuck Grassley? Democratic hopes for maintaining American democracy rest on the suburban college educated voters turning out and the Trumpist rural evangelicals staying home. If the Biden DOJ is prosecuting Trump, that would motivate his cultists. 

Waiting until November 2022 to drop the charges on him would force him to be playing defense in court throughout his presumed presidential run. It would force Republicans to defend his various crimes for two years - after they will likely suck up to him more in the run-up to 2022. 

Strategically, there is no reason to rush into the prosecution now. Doing so is prioritizing feelings over efficacy.  Drop the January 6th Commission finding this spring. Prosecute shitbirds like Bannon, Meadows and Miller.  No one really cares about them anyway. Wait until November '22 to go after Trump and you maximize the political impact of your legal case.

In this one instance, learn something from Michael Corleone: revenge is a dish best served cold.