Josh Marshall summarizes a lot of what is being said among Democratic power brokers and something I've been writing about a lot: the Doom Caucus within the Democratic Party.
They are working off a bit of an data problem, in that it's difficult to predict Democratic turnout next fall, when your data points are fairly small. Incumbent presidents can get killed (2010, 2018) or they may not get killed (2002). But the changing nature of the Democratic electorate could mean disproportionate turnout for an incumbent in the midterms.
The single biggest issue for 2022 is very, very simple: Covid. If we have truly moved into a post-Covid world by next summer, Democrats should be fine. The bills that will eventually come out of Capitol Hill are much less important. If anything, bills like the Texas Abortion Vigilante Law will drive Democratic engagement much more than whether the BBB Bill is $2.2T or $2.9T.
Hyperpartisanship will matter, but MAGA partisanship is linked specifically to Trump's personality cult, and he is not on the ballot. If the college-educated suburbs stick with the Dems, they can still retain their GA Senate seat and pick off seats in PA, WI and NC. Depending on how Florida voters feel about Republican Covid policy, I wouldn't put Florida out of reach.
I can certainly see a situation where Democrats lose the House, but gain a seat or two in the Senate. Not ideal, but you can confirm people with a Senate majority.
Maybe terrifying Democrats will work to get them to the polls next November. That tactic has worked for the GOP for decades.
But maybe there also needs to be a positive message.
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