Philip Bump looks at the hypothesis that I've advanced here: that Trump voters vote for Trump and not Republicans. He notes that polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020, but largely accurate in 2018. There clearly are Trump voters who don't answer pollsters phone calls. It also looks clear that Trump voters do not show up if their Tangerine Caligula is not on the ballot.
Virginia will be an interesting test case for this, especially the accuracy of polling. If McAuliffe wins easily (like Newsom) then we may be seeing the two trends that I'm banking on to save American Democracy:
- Trump voters won't vote when Trump isn't on the ballot.
- The New Suburban Democrats tend to vote regularly and will turn out in 2022.
Trump clearly has some weird hold on a segment of Americans who are not usually engaged in politics. That hold cannot be transferred to a Ron DeSantis.
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