We now enter the stage of the Ukraine crisis where things become very delicate. Previously, there was bluster and threats, but now we will see how the West responds to Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine. There are already a host of sanctions beginning to take effect. The key will be to slowly ratchet up the pressure. Putting all the sanctions in place at once will not allow for more measures to be taken should Russian forces cross over into Ukrainian held territory.
By moving into separatist-held regions, Putin can plausibly claim victory while leaving large troop deployments in the effectively annexed areas. He does not need to invade Free Ukraine to keep screwing with it. He will try and force Ukraine to exhaust itself by staying in a constant defensive posture for months.
Meanwhile, the West should continually ramp up pressures on Russia, especially people close to Putin. Putin stays in power by privileging a set of "state oligarchs" called the siloviki, who emerged - like him - from state security. If you can sufficiently punish them, the desire to keep him in power wanes.
Russia is not a wealthy country; its' leaders are. Make them howl, and if it damages the rest of Russia's economy, so be it. If it hurts the Covid recovery, so be it. Beats a land war in Europe.
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