The March Of Folly

 With southeastern Europe on everyone's minds, it seems that World War I revisionism is all the rage these days. Last night I watched the exceedingly mediocre The King's Man, which purports to be the origin story of the vapid Kingsmen series. I wasn't expecting great art, but...still.

I then awaken to read this twaddle. The gap between Good Yglesias and Bad Yglesias is so large it cannot be measured with current science. 

His argument is basically that the Austro-Hungarian empire was "good" and would have become a beacon to the world if not for the assassination of the Archduke in Sarajevo. He's an admitted fan of "Alternate History" which is kind of a weird thing to be a fan of. Still, the argument that "history would be different if things weren't the way they were" is not much of an argument.

The causes of World War I have been mulled over and studied for a century. The most compelling cause that I've found is that you have three decaying empires - the Austro-Hungarian, the Ottoman and the Russian - vying to shape the emerging states on their flanks in the Balkans. It was precisely the weakness of these empires that led them to war. Germany's entrance into the war was on behalf of it's weaker ally, and knocking France out of the war was necessary to defeat Russia. Going through Belgium brought Britain in. Germany and Britain had the most to lose in a war, which is why their politicians (as opposed to the Kaiser) worked hard to avoid it.

The weakness of Russia in 1914, especially, is on  my mind. Russia had been defeated by the Japanese in 1905 and had experienced a half-revolution thereafter. Its leadership was generally poor, with intermittent periods of competence, however, there was no doubt that Russia was weaker than Germany, if perhaps equal to or stronger than the Austrians.

People make poor choices when they feel threatened. Weakness begets rash boastfulness and "projections of strength." This is what typified decision making in Vienna and St. Petersburg. 

What worries me is that Russia today is behaving like Russia in 1914. They are weak and relatively isolated, so they are picking on a weaker neighbor. My hope is that the rest of Europe is not weak - or at least not as weak as the Hapsburg Empire in 1914. Led by the US, Europe - and increasingly Asia - are acting in concert to counteract Russian aggression. 

This collective response is precisely the architecture begun with the League of Nations and expanded upon by the United Nations that was designed to prevent another World War I. It is also the architecture that Putin wishes to dismantle, precisely because it is evidence of Russian weakness.

You can miscalculate out of strength, the way the US did in Iraq, but you can also miscalculate out of weakness.