One of the shocking developments - in a good way! - has been the global unity in the face of Russian aggression. As of my count, Russia's international support consists of Belarus, North Korea, Syria and Donald Trump. There are other countries like China, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran and India who have played the "bothsides" bullshit, but have generally called for peace. In other words, NATO and the US are bad, but let's stop with the war, OK?
As the Russian economy craters, the ability of Russia to buy support will likely lead to softening support among groups and nations that rely on petro-rubles to prop them up. While North Korea doesn't care, a country like Belarus could see its own blowback from participating in Putin's war. Alexander Lukashenko's hold on power was challenged by domestic unrest in 2020-21. His decision to support Putin could put his much weaker economy in the crosshairs of global sanctions.
It would be darkly hilarious if Putin initiated a war to achieve regime change in Kyiv and created it in Minsk instead.
Ukraine has seized on this moment to ask for EU membership. We shall see if Finland and Sweden join NATO; Kosovo has asked to join.
If Putin survives but leaves Ukraine, will the sanctions remain in place?
Will the West maintain resolve once their own economies start hurting?
What will global security arrangements look like when this is all done?
One thing, I trust Biden and his team to make good long term decisions about this.
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