Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Friday, March 4, 2022

Take A Deep Breath, Everybody

 Last night, Twitter was abuzz with the Russian assault on Ukraine's (very large) nuclear power plant. There was similar freaking out when Russian troops passed through the Chernobyl site in the first days of the war. Some of this is the reflexive fear of nuclear power that sprung from Chernobyl, but really is misplaced. That move to panic has been typical of the knee-jerk reactions over Ukraine, which would include irresponsible calls for a no-fly zone.

Was it great that Russia attacked a nuclear power plant? Absolutely not. Was it worse than the shelling of residential neighborhoods? Also no. 

The people who are simultaneously calling for a no-fly zone AND freaking out over a stupid but not especially dire assault on a commercial power reactor are being wildly irrational in terms of their risk assessment. I continue to echo Josh Marshall's mantra on this war: The only thing worse than the war going well for Putin is if it goes poorly. I'm just not convinced he won't talk himself into a disastrous decision with regards to nuclear weapons, especially Russia's small "battlefield" nukes.

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