There are reports that a Russian website accidentally published a count of Russian combat fatalities at 9,861.
This is both a shocking number and yet perhaps not so.
I read a Twitter thread by General Mark Hertling (ret) where he examines this potential number of dead Russian soldiers.
From 2003 until today, coalition forces in Iraq have a recorded 4,800 deaths. In Afghanistan, the number is around 2,400. So decades of accumulated combat in Iraq and Afghanistan killed around 7,200 American military personnel. Russia blew past that number in a month. (Again, if the number is accurate. Given the recorded deaths of high profile Russian officers, it looks like it might be. It also gibes with Western analysis.)
Hertling, in his thread, notes that the US spends a great deal more resources on combat survivability. An American or coalition serviceman wounded in battle is much more likely to survive than at any other time in recorded human military history. Russia did not develop those capabilities. A wounded Russian solider is likelier to be a dead Russian soldier.
The key factor seems to be the prevalence of US-made Javelin anti-tank weapons. Hertling tells a story of climbing into a Russian T-80 tank and being astounded at how cramped and unsafe it was. It's especially lightly armored on top, where the Javelin missile hits. There is exposed munitions in the tank, so if a Javelin makes a solid hit on a Russian tank, the crew is dead. Russian armored personnel carriers are arguably worse.
Ukraine has been able to stall Russian convoys on roads and ambush them with Javelins, which leaves the infantry vulnerable to ambush as well.
The increased use of drones against a moderately advanced force like the Russian Army, would seem to alter the balance of power in military engagements. Iraqis and Afghans did not have access to sophisticated drone systems, Ukraine will be getting more and more drones as the weeks progress.
Russia is losing this war.
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