Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, March 1, 2022

No, NATO Should Not Try And Create A No-Fly Zone In Ukraine

 There are the inevitable "Do Something" posters on social media and on TV advocating that NATO establish a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. Josh Marshall lays out why this is a terrible idea here, but let me summarize.

A NFZ would need to be enforced by NATO pilots flying from bases in Poland, Romania and Western Ukraine. Those pilots will be engaged with Russian pilots in the skies of Ukraine. NATO and Russian pilots will die. This is an act of war.

In order to stop NATO pilots from dying, NATO would need to strike Russian airbases and air defenses IN RUSSIA. This is also an act of war and it would immediately legitimize Putin among the Russian people at precisely the moment we are trying (and I think succeeding) in isolating him from the broader populace. If there is one thing Putin needs right now, it's an active war against NATO. It validates all his bullshit.

Giving Ukraine old MiGs from Polish and other former Warsaw Pact countries arsenals is great. Giving them drones? Great. Give them everything they need.

But if you try and introduce NATO units into Ukraine - whether on the air or on the ground - you reset the war among Russia's populace and elite. You immediately ratchet up the pressure on Russia to start using nuclear weapons and you greatly increase the chance of a nuclear war that would wipe out most if not all life on earth, including the people of Ukraine.


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