I have no idea, because the GOP Caucus is an absolute clown show. However, I think it might not be that long for two reasons.
The first is that Matt Gaetz is a suppurating asshole that even members of his own party despise. It is Gaetz that is leading the Chaos Caucus into extreme positions, as he has shown no desire to work within the deal that was negotiated earlier this year. The basic tripwire at this point seems to be Ukraine aid, which remains popular with the public but unpopular with the MAGAts, so McCarthy can't get a CR passed with Democratic votes as long as he clings to Gaetz and other's refusal to continue aiding our ally against Russia. So, it's going to happen, but the basic unpopularity of the GOP policies is really going to put the squeeze on vulnerable House Republicans who already hate Gaetz and his fellow anarchists.
The second is that shutdowns are unpopular, and especially ones that shutoff things like National Parks. My wife and are a National Parks "completionists" trying to visit every park in the country and we have plans to visit four parks in November. That will be nearly impossible if the shutdown drags on and on. But when people start losing things like Fat Bear Week, there is going to be hell to pay. Seriously. As Mistermix notes above, Trump kept the National Parks open during the last shutdown precisely because closing them is massively unpopular. Biden won't, not just to pressure the House GOP but because the nature of the parks has changed after the pandemic.
I could see the shutdown lasting a week, a day, a fortnight...these are unpredictable, undependable people. It's sad that the voting public needs to be reminded what happens when you elect these clowns, but hopefully they remember next November.
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