Josh Marshall started musing on whether we could really use the XIVth Amendment to bar Trump from running for office. Some readers thought yes, other thought no. I have not read the very, very lengthy list of things Trump has been indicted for, but I don't think he's been indicted for inciting an insurrection. If not, then even a conviction might not create the clear standard for barring him from even running again.
Then there's the question of whether barring Trump from running would unleash violence. On that, I'm pretty clear: We cannot consider ourselves a nation of laws if we fail to enforce them because angry White people might get violent. The post above references the Malheur occupation, and frankly, they should have treated those people as the domestic terrorists that they are.
Will Trump cultists get violent? It's absolutely possible. Most of them, however, have a fair amount to lose - as the January 6th defendants are discovering. The violence will come from the true lunatic fringe, and while it will be cheered on from social media and on NewsMax, I think we are talking militants in the hundreds, certainly not the tens of thousands.
One of the hallmarks of Trumpism is high visibility signs and social media posts. It's easy to overestimate how many members of the true Cult 45 exist and many of them are a 5K fun run away from a coronary embolism.
Tactically, I still think - despite some polling which looks to be bullshit - that Trump represents the easiest opponent for Joe Biden in 2024, in the sense that Biden already whupped him once, January 6th happened and Dobbs happened. The latter two are things Trump did, and should lead Democrats and Independents home. Age is clearly an issue with Biden, but Trump is almost as old and in worse health. So, I'm not exactly in favor of Trump being barred from the ballot entirely, unless it leads to DeSantis getting nominated, because that guy oozes assholery.
So, the nominee will be Trump, unless he's in jail. And even then...
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