This Where We Live Now, Apparently

I Trump simply a cipher for Russia or white supremacists?

I'm telling you, there is some damning Russia information out there, and it will be one of the next shoes to drop.

Defining Deviancy Down

This has always worried me about Donald Trump.  He's a loathsome shitstain of a human being.  He says and does awful things the way some people breathe.

But now that he's the GOP nominee, everything he does gets refiltered through the political spectrum.  Now, many GOP leaders are trying to walk away from him, without alienating his supporters.  Good luck with that, by the way.  Others have simply moved the goalposts.  As gnomish cretin Jeff Sessions says, it's not sexual assault to grab a woman's genitals because reasons.  While I laughed hard at the SNL cold open, the fact is this isn't really funny, it isn't locker room talk and it isn't OK.  Because GOP operatives have to defend the Tangerine Nightmare, they wind up defending sexual assault.

As Jon Chait notes, the Trump that stalked and wheezed and sniffed his way across the stage last night was in fact part and parcel of the GOP attitudes about rape and women and Muslims and the environment.  It has been said often that Trump is the comment section come to life.  He is, in fact, the walking representation of a Fox News/Breitbart/Drudge consumer.

So, does Trump's sexual assault bragging normalize this sort of behavior?  Or does it expose it?  My guess in the end is that it exposes it.  There are plenty of men - and it's almost exclusively men - who don't think much of this stuff.  To them it is just words.  It is banter.  Don't believe me?  Ask Billy Bush.  (I hear he has time on his hand, so he's free to take your questions.)

In sum, this could be another Clarence Thomas moment, where a behavior that men have tolerated for too long gets dragged out into the light and exposed for what it really is.

The final lesson could be given on November 8th, but the early returns are promising.

Click Click Boom

Of course, Trump is going to lose.  Trump was almost certainly going to lose before he showed his ass.  Trump was likely to lose as soon as he won the nomination.

Keep a few things in mind.

First, this isn't over.  Trump has more skeletons to come dancing out of his closet.  The thing is: those skeletons were always there.  The fact that Jeb! Bush's own cousin knew about this tape and never thought to disclose it to his cousin begs the question: Where was Bush and Cruz and Rubio's opposition research?  How in the world could they not expose this fraud and human sewer before he won the nomination?

Of course, this leads to the second point: Trump isn't the real problem.  Republicans actually do love this guy, and they hate their elected officials.  This is the Frankenstein monster model of Trump.  The GOP has, ever since Nixon, played footsie with the vilest, most (ahem) deplorable elements in American politics.  They've gorged them on a diet of Fox News with a side dish of Drudge with Glenn Beck dessert with Alex Jones crushed nuts on top.  You literally cannot provide evidence that will convince a hard core Republican that his candidate is incapable of assuming the duties of the presidency.

If the Establishment GOP tries to remove Trump, there will be hell to pay.  If they isolate and try and distance themselves from Trump, there will be hell to pay.  As one GOP mandarin said when Trump won the nomination: "This proves every bad thing Democrats have said about Republicans."  Well.  Yeah.  It does.  All those vile racist things?  The war on women you denied was happening?  The veneration of power over principle?  Yeah, that was all true.

The GOP professionals are not stupid.  They can read polls - and the private polls have Trump losing by more - and they know that getting in bed with the Trumpenproletariat means that they will likely lose a lot more presidential elections.

They also know that if they dump Trump, they could lose the House.  But that could happen if they embrace him.  They need the Deplorables to come vote.  If they depress the Trump vote, Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker.

It looks like their best bet is to hunker down, weather 2016 and hope they can repeat their 2010 magic.

In the end, they will need to decide what their party will be.  Because the crack-up is coming.

The crack-up is already here.

Der Gropenfuhrer*

Folks, this will not be the last instance of Donald Trump being shown to be exactly who Donald Trump is.  My guess is that this was released when it was released because NBC had the tape and wasn't releasing it or because the Wikileaks release of Clinton's speeches was yesterday and this drowns out the mildly embarrassing revelation that Clinton tells audiences what they want to hear.

We are already learning that Trump has committed tax fraud in NYC by claiming a tax break on a non-resident domicile that was intended for the middle class.  We can be reasonably certain that there are more damning financial statements, more damning racist and misogynistic statements and more brushes with legal troubles than we have seen.  Trump is a vulgarian.  When Kelly Ayotte said Trump should be a role model, you know the DSCC had a small collective orgasm.

Now, the RNC is meeting to try and figure out what to do with this guy.  How much fealty do they owe him?  His voters?  Do you just ride out 2016 and wait to take everything back in 2018?  At what point does the entire establishment cut this guy loose?

Oh, and thanks, Donald, for making me have to teach this shit.


* h/t Betty Cracker

Good Read

Who knew Time still existed?

Johnstein 2016

The only current variable in the presidential election - aside from Clinton's margin of victory - is the potential role of third party candidates to act as spoilers.  Given both Trump and Clinton's unpopularity, this would be the year for one of these third party tickets to shine.  In fact, the worry is that they reproduce the Nader problem from 2000, when Nader cost Gore Florida and probably New Hampshire, and thus the presidency.

There are a few problems.

First, we need to acknowledge just how abysmal these two yahoos are as candidates.  Ross Perot had a message.  It was simplistic and largely false, but it had cohesion - even if he personally was all over the map.  Johnson is not only for marijuana legalization, he's probably stoned right now.  His complete lack of knowledge or understanding would be humorous if he weren't running for president.  Gary Johnson is that guy Jimmy Kimmel interviews about current events to prove how stupid Americans are.

Jill Stein is worse.  An anti-vaxxer, 9/11-truther-curious yahoo with the political insights of a fool.

And right now all these maroons, including a few you haven't even heard of, are polling at non-negligible levels.

As Matthew Yglesias notes historically these protest candidates underperform their poll numbers.  Many of their poll supporters stay home, because their choice of Jill Stein is primarily about protesting the duopoly of the political system.  In the end, it's easier just to stay home and watch Portlandia on Netflix.  Protest achieved.

There is also the fact that whatever petulance one might feel about being forced to choose between a Cheetoh colored, ferret wearing shit gibbon and a career politician ultimately dissolves before the actual choice.  You express your displeasure to Pew, but come November 8th, you bubble in the name of someone who can actually win.

A huge defection of Clinton leaners to third party candidates is the only plausible way that Trump can become president.  Luckily for Clinton, Trump is doing a great job of reminding them why they shouldn't play Russian Roulette with American democracy.

Well, This Is A Terrible Idea

This is why the academy never really exercises political power.  Here is a legal way for the Republicans to "flip the ticket" by basically saying that Trump will voluntarily step aside for Mike Pence on January 20th.  There are some other legal tricks involved in holding Trump to this, because Republicans would almost certainly control the levers of power on Capitol Hill.  But on some level, this requires Trump to put the needs of the Republican party above his own ego.

As we saw throughout the primary season, Trump doesn't give two farts in a hurricane about the Republican establishment.  In fact, his primary appeal to his hardcore supporters is precisely that he ISN'T part of the McConnell/Ryan/Pence crowd.  The Tea Party/Trumpista wing of the party HATES its Washington incarnation.  If they could somehow force Trump to do this (they can't), his lack of self-discipline would prevent him from sticking to that promise for more than a news cycle.  It would cause exactly the schism in the Republican coalition that they have been trying to avoid.

Finally, this is a direct and unconscionable assault on the bedrock principles of popular sovereignty and democratic rule.  Republican voters nominated Donald Trump.  The fact that he's an incompetent politician for the general election is irrelevant.  The idea that people would go to the polls and vote for an inverse ticket is borderline fraud.

In many ways, this article is perfect though.  Trump has never learned that just because you are legally able to do something doesn't mean you should.  Apparently Professor Amar feels the same way.

Strategery

Tim Kaine did not advance the personal career of Tim Kaine last night.  Of course, that wasn't his job, and one thing Kaine is is a "good soldier."

What he did was set a new media agenda for the week.  Josh Marshall is right.  Pence seemed like a reasonable conservative, rather than the absolute nut job that his career suggests.  But he was calm and dignified, unlike Trump.  He's like Ben Carson, in that he can say crazy things in a reassuring voice, but without Sleepy Time Ben's incipient narcolepsy.

But that's not the point.  Pence "won" the debate by pivoting back to talking points (all while complaining about talking points) rather than defending what couldn't be defended.

The problem is that what couldn't be defended was Donald Trump.  Plus, Pence lied like a rug.  And the Internet age is rather unforgiving of that much lying.  Pundits may have praised Pence's equanimity, but the follow up fact checking is and will be brutal.  Basically, you have Pence on tape saying that Trump didn't say the things that we have Trump saying.  First, that makes Pence a liar or a fool and second, it allows for more campaign ads showcasing all the wretched things Trump has said.

The strategy of getting Pence on the record about Trump was flexible enough that if Pence had agreed with Trump (like Kelly Ayotte did), you can tie the entire GOP to a deeply offensive man.  If he denies he said what he said, you attack him as fundamentally dishonest.  If he repudiates Trump - or even outshines him - you set up the fragile ego of the Tangerine Nightmare for an epic blowback

Well, This Sucks

David Daley, a left wing writer, makes a compelling case that the GOP has locked in its gerrymander from 2010 until at least 2030.  I think most people assumed that 2020 would be the Democrats opportunity to reverse what was done in the Tea Party wave, but there are a number of reasons why that might not happen.

One is simply the scale and size of the gerrymander.  Two is the reinforcing nature of it.  Once you gerrymander the state assemblies, you perpetuate control of those state assemblies.

It would therefore take a true Democratic wave in 2020 to reverse what was done in 2010.  That brings in the fact that the likely Clinton victory in 2016 will also probably lead to a GOP victory or a narrow Democratic win in 2020.  As Mike Pence proved last night, there would have been an advantage to running a non-crazy person as the Republican against Hillary Clinton.  Incumbency has its advantages and the public seems to like split government (probably because they don't understand the downsides).  So Clinton can likely win in 2020, but she's unlikely to carry a wave with her that unseats Republicans in state houses across the country.

Ultimately, I do believe that once Republicans get control of all branches of government again, it will lead to a Democratic House and perhaps a wave like 2006.  I also think that the demographics that favor the Democrats will eventually sweep away some Republican safe districts.

But that's hardly worth rooting for.

Snap Judgment, If You Care

I can smell the CW congealing around the Veep debate:  Mike Pence won the debate and Donald Trump lost it.

Tim Kaine took of his Ned Flanders suit and went full Sideshow Bob on Trump, challenging Pence to defend his running mate's absurd and inflammatory comments.  Pence mostly refused to do that, sticking to his talking points or outright lying about what Trump has said.

I've seen several Twitter comments along the lines of "Kaine is running for vice president in 2016 and Pence is running for president in 2020."

Kaine was certainly not running as the nice guy he seemed throughout the rest of the campaign.  It seems pretty clear that the latest Clinton ad is going to be a bunch of Republicans refusing to agree with Trump (or agreeing with him).  It could be that Kaine's mission was to tie the GOP to Trump.  That's a long term strategy of making the GOP repugnant.

That Pence simply denied that Trump said all the things Trump said may have rendered that moot.  However, if enough people say that Pence didn't defend Trump enough, when will Trump turn on him?  We know how thin-skinned Trump is.

At any rate, Trump will likely feel the need to regain the limelight after 90 minutes of not having Pence defend him or praise him.  He was engaged in a Twitter fight with Megyn Kelly during the debate.  What will happen at 2:00 AM?

Or maybe this will be all we have to remember the debate for:

Lack Of Consequences

 Senator Jeff Flake admits that holding up Merrick Garland's nomination is bullshit.  Of course, we all know that it's bullshit.  We have known that it was bullshit since the moment Mitch McConnell announced that it was going to happen.

The GOP Senate is not doing the job that it was elected to do.  And there is a non-negligible chance that many of these people who are not doing their job will get another 6 years to not do their job.  In Chait's interview with Obama, the President notes that the single biggest problem we have in a broken Congress.  The old wheeling and dealing is dead, because the internal politics of the GOP killed it.

And they won't suffer for breaking it, because we are a profoundly stupid country when it comes to our politics.

I Miss Him Already

Jon Chait interviewed Barack Obama.

Cerberus

There are three things to keep track of with Trump's taxes.

First, he didn't pay income taxes for years, because he bundled a huge amount of losses into one year.  Legal, but completely unrelatable for most Americans.

Second, he lost WHAT?  Trump's brand is dominance, but he got pwned in the 1990s.  He will now have to explain how he lost all that money.

Third, how will he react?  There are already signs that he's unraveling.  How much could he implode?

October Surprise Comes Early

So, the Times waited until October 1st to release a partial tax return that they had been sitting on for a while.  A compelling theory is that they waited so that people wouldn't have used their ten free visits to the Times website to read the article.  Frankly, I could now pivot and write about the crappy paywall at the Times, but let's keep our eye on the ball.

Trump - if you hadn't heard - logged a $916,000,000 loss in 1995.  As he ran his Atlantic City
"empire" into the ground, he basically took the loss in one year.  He then was able to spread the loss out over a number of years, effectively absolving him from paying income taxes.

Now, this was entirely legal.  That's the way the tax code works.  Capital losses can be spread over time to avoid paying taxes in future years.

The next question is: Why?  Especially on the scale that Trump did this, the capital loss provision is yet another way that our tax code privileges the wealthy.  Again, Trump didn't break the law.  The problem IS the law.

Trump's primary appeal seems to be that he will burn shit down.  He speaks to people who want to see the whole thing come crashing down.  I suppose that the revelations in his taxes will oddly appeal to many of them, because it's yet another example of how the system is rigged for the wealthy.  If you hate the system, Trump will certainly challenge it.

The second question, that Trump supporters seem incapable of asking, is whether he would destroy the system and replace it with something better.  For a sane person, the second question is critical.  Destroying things is easy; building things is hard.  Trump has shown little vision or ability to build things that are lasting.

Finally, it will be fascinating to see how these revelations play on Trump's notorious thin skin.  First of all, it seems that the tax returns were sent from Trump Tower.  So someone on the inside stuck the shiv in.  My guess is that he will focus on that for a week.  Meanwhile, who loses a billion dollars?  Trump's brand is dominance.  Here is an example of a crushing and humiliating loss.  Trump will have to spin this into a positive - "I'm so smart to work the tax code this way" - because he simply can't help himself.

So, we have currently simmering in the news: Alicia Machado and Trump's fat-shaming; Trump's lack of paying taxes and massive business losses and now we have a report that he pressured Marla Maples into posing for Playboy and appeared in a softcore Playboy video (clothed, thank God).

Trump is the ultimate target-rich environment.  The man is a dumpster fire of a human being.  Yet literally NOTHING he can do will dissuade his supporters - historically 27% of the population - because of who they are.

Read that last link with a stiff drink handy.

Yeesh

Go read this.

Giuliani got caught in the same Trumpist Bubble that Donald lives in.  The key takeaway is the observation that Trump only reflected the racism and sexism that the crowds wanted.  Giuliani has been doing the same.

That's a scary and important point.  Trump has a history of both racism and sexism that allows him to embrace the views of his angrier mobs.

But the mobs were angry and racist and sexist before he got there.