Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Well, This Sucks

David Daley, a left wing writer, makes a compelling case that the GOP has locked in its gerrymander from 2010 until at least 2030.  I think most people assumed that 2020 would be the Democrats opportunity to reverse what was done in the Tea Party wave, but there are a number of reasons why that might not happen.

One is simply the scale and size of the gerrymander.  Two is the reinforcing nature of it.  Once you gerrymander the state assemblies, you perpetuate control of those state assemblies.

It would therefore take a true Democratic wave in 2020 to reverse what was done in 2010.  That brings in the fact that the likely Clinton victory in 2016 will also probably lead to a GOP victory or a narrow Democratic win in 2020.  As Mike Pence proved last night, there would have been an advantage to running a non-crazy person as the Republican against Hillary Clinton.  Incumbency has its advantages and the public seems to like split government (probably because they don't understand the downsides).  So Clinton can likely win in 2020, but she's unlikely to carry a wave with her that unseats Republicans in state houses across the country.

Ultimately, I do believe that once Republicans get control of all branches of government again, it will lead to a Democratic House and perhaps a wave like 2006.  I also think that the demographics that favor the Democrats will eventually sweep away some Republican safe districts.

But that's hardly worth rooting for.

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