A Chilling But Necessary Read

Those GOP politicians supporting Trump aren't doing it out of cowardice in the face of the Trumpenproletariat.  They are doing it because they really believe their bullshit.

And this isn't much more reassuring.

The Way This Probably Unfolds

The House GOP tries to subpoena the whistleblower for no reason beyond spite.

Schiff points out that this is both spiteful and dangerous and a violation of whistleblower laws.

Schmuck Todd wonders what the whistleblower is hiding, beyond their identity to preserve their safety.

Debate becomes about the whistleblower among the Right Wing and Sensible Centrist news medi.

The whistleblower demands to come forward.

The whistleblower testifies in public and it's absolutely brutal for Trump.

Everything the GOP has tried to do to help Trump has inevitably, in the end, made things worse.

Morons

I think the GOP strategy on impeachment has been pretty predictable.  Attack the process. When the Democrats address those concerns, decide that quid pro quo isn't a quid pro quo or a crime at all.

But eventually the sheer tonnage of evidence will break the dam.  They will need a new stratagem to protect Dear Leader.  Especially if Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman testify to save their skins, they could provide damning details about what Giuliani was doing.  That means sacrificing Giuliani to save Trump.  Pin it all on him and say he was acting as a rogue agent.

Two problems.  First, it would admit that the Ukraine ploy was illegal.  It clearly was, but they've been trying to hem and haw and count on the protection of Fox News to keep from having to admit that what Trump did to Zelenskyy was illegal and corrupt.

The second problem is that there is ample evidence from Trump's own mouth of his working with Giuliani.  Trump and Giuliani's rank idiocy has endlessly complicated any consistent defense of Trump.  It's like the scene in A Few Good Men where Caffey gets Jessup to admit to the Code Red.

Except it's happening over and over and over again.

The Sessions Session

Jefferson Beauregard Sessions will apparently be running for his old seat in Alabama.  What makes this a fascinating story is the raging anger Trump still feels for Sessions, because Sessions - for all his odious racism - was insufficiently loyal to Hair Furor. The odds of Trump attacking Sessions is remarkably high. 

Alabama - unexpectedly - represents a crucial battleground state for control of the Senate.  Republicans look likely to lose a seat in Colorado, and could lose seats in Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Arizona, and perhaps even Georgia and Kentucky.  Regaining the seat in Alabama is critical to any plans to retain control of the upper chamber.

So Trump's malignant narcissism could produce a conundrum for his hate-huffing acolytes in Alabama. The racist we've know for decades or the racist we've come to adore?

Ideally, Sessions narrowly edges accused pedophile Roy Moore, who launches a third party bid out of spite.  Moore draws off 10% of the creepier fundies and Doug Jones gets another six years.

Boom Goes The Dynamite

Remember, remember
The Fifth of November!

So, yesterday was quite a week.

First, and most importantly, my wife won a seat on our town council.  Pray for me a sinner in the hour of my need.

Second, Gordon Sondland - perhaps the only person so far to testify that gave Trump any wiggle room - reversed his previous testimony.  He admitted that Trump was trying to coordinate an "off the books" intervention through Giuliani. Most importantly, he admitted that he found Trump and Giuliani's attempt to pressure Ukraine to probably be illegal.  In other words? Quid pro quo.  Sondland decided that Trump and Giuliani weren't worth jail time.  He won't be the last to make that calculation.

Third, there were elections last night (see point #1), and Democrats did remarkably well. They now control the trifecta in Virginia, and amazingly, they won the governorship in Kentucky. What you see when you look at the map in Virginia and the map in Kentucky is where the battleground has shifted nationally.  Yes, Matt Bevin was an extremely unpopular governor and Andy Beshear is the son of a very popular former governor.  Yes, Virginia has been trending "blue" for several elections. When you look at the maps, however, what you see is that any district with any sizeable population tended to vote for the Democrat. Urban areas have been Democratic for decades now, but it's the suburbs that are starting to flip to parties, and that is likely a direct result of Donald J. Trump.  Trump won Kentucky by 30 points in 2016.

There will be policy implications, of course. Kentucky will likely bring back some form of Obamacare and 150,000 former felons will get their voting rights back.  Virginia might ratify the ERA, which would be the 38th state to do so.  However, the date for ratifying the ERA has passed, so the Supreme Court will need to decide if that counts.  In a state like Virginia, the Democrats will now control redistricting which at the very least will create fair districts, if not ones that lean Democratic.

In Kentucky, Trump tried to make Bevin's reelection about himself and about impeachment.  Bevin was the only Republican to lose his statewide race.  Don't think that hasn't left a mark on Mitch McConnell and other Republicans.

Watch This Story

The NYTimes poll that had Trump winning the swing states really does seem like an outlier.  Meanwhile, the WaPo released a poll that has Trump getting absolutely thumped by every major Democratic candidate.

In the background, there is another story brewing.  It's about "the best economy ever" that Trump touts as perhaps his only net positive.  Unemployment is ticking up in those critical Rust Belt states, including Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina.  (And if someone can explain to me the numbers in Alabama and Mississippi, I'd be obliged.)

The post-2008 economy has produced a bunch of jobs, but many of them are pretty crappy. Under-employment, poor wage growth, lingering debt...all of these are critical issues facing working class voters.

Looming on the horizon are two other trends: Trump's trade war is not only hurting American farmers, but it's beginning to take a toll on manufacturers.  The Conservative Party looks poised to win the December election, at which point, Brexit will happen and Europe will slip into a recession.

The only things keeping Trump afloat are rigid partisanship and a reasonably sound economy.  That last bit might not last until election day.

The Gist Of It

Josh Marshall lays down the basic plot from Ambassador Yovanovitch's testimony: She was fired because she was standing in the way of corrupt officials in Ukraine who wanted to give Giuliani and by extension Trump what they were asking for on the Biden family. The State Department didn't want to do or say anything that might be upended by Trump's Twitter feed.

The broader point is that Trump's infantile response mechanisms - attack, leap before your look, attack again - was easily manipulated by those goombahs arrested a few weeks back: Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman. They knew what they wanted and it was exceedingly easy to get Trump to bite.  As Marshall notes, we should assume that if those two idiots and Giuliani figured it out, Russia, Saudi Arabia, China and Turkey should have zero trouble manipulating the toddler-in-chief.

Thanks, Republicans!

My Nightmare

I worry Jon Chait might be right about this.  Part of my worry is that Martin Longman has said the same things, and he's not a concern troll, the way Chait can be.

The "Biden is more electable" pitch is fundamentally flawed by the accumulated history of his previous presidential runs.  He's not a great standard bearer.  But... he might fit the wishes of the vast mushy, unengaged middle of the electorate.

We've hit a lull in the impeachment process, with fewer new revelations dropping every day. That will allow Trump to regain a bit of his floundering support.  Don't forget that polls are tricky to read, and you shouldn't base too much off one poll.

Still, the sickness I feel when I ponder the slimmest possibility of re-electing Donald Trump is overwhelming.

Out On A Sunday

This is a good read.

It's All One Scandal

Newly released documents show that the Ukraine scandal is not a separate scandal from the Russia/Mueller scandal.  Needless to say, Paul Manafort was at the center of it, and he appears to be the source of Trump's bonkers theory that Ukraine secretly "framed" Trump by stealing the DNC emails and releasing them to....Yeah, it gets fuzzy there.

Pelosi has said that they won't necessarily narrowly focus the impeachment on Ukraine.  My guess is that they know much of this already and are going to slowly expand the inquiry.

Not a week goes by when it doesn't get worse.  Not a week goes by where that seems to matter to the GOP.

Katie Hill

Representative Katie Hill resigned after photos were released that showed her having sexual relations with a campaign staffer.  There are allegations that she might have had relations with a congressional staffer.  The latter is against House rules put in place after #MeToo exposed predatory and untoward sexual relations between members and staff on Capitol Hill.

There has been a lot of talk about double standards based on gender, and no doubt that it true.  Hill is the first openly bisexual member of the House, and that no doubt feeds into the prurient interest in her sex life and the associated fact that the subordinate was a woman.  The accusations of double standard usually note that Duncan Hunter - also from California, but a Republican - continues to serve, despite far worse accusations against him.

But perhaps a better analogy is Duncan Hunter, but Al Franken.  Franken's behavior was bad and unworthy of a US Senator.  He might have weathered the storm, and perhaps some sort of political comeback exists in his future.  But he resigned, because he felt his status was damaged.  He could no longer do his job.  Hill made much the same point.

Hunter, however, is a Republican.  His primary loyalty is to Republican voters and the Republican party.  He is completely uninterested in the opinions of those who think sexual harassment is wrong, which ipso facto does include Republican voters and the Republican party.

We have entered a universe where one political party has shame and the other doesn't.  One party holds itself to its ideals and an idea of justice and fairness and one doesn't.

Yes, gender played a role in Hill's treatment and her decision to resign.  But don't pretend the moral bankruptcy of the GOP wasn't also an important part of this double standard.

When This Is All Over

I hope Matt Gaetz and Devin Nunes are in jail.

It Was Never A Transcript

News media have described the released summary of the Trump-Zelenskyy call of July 25th as a "transcript."  It was never a transcript.  What was so flabbergasting about the whole thing was that the White House somehow thought this redacted document proved that they had done nothing wrong, because Trump never said the words "quid pro quo."  Astute observers noted that this White House has obstructed every single attempt to hold them accountable to the rule of law, and therefore it was highly unlikely that this incredibly damning document was the full story.

Well, guess what? As Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified, the document that the White House released was indeed more favorable than the more damning actual transcript. 

We know the following to be true:
- The released summary of the 7/25 call was damning and included impeachable offenses.
- Trump never voluntarily complies with subpoenas, therefore there is likely a worse, even much worse accounting of that telephone conversation.
- Trump made many disturbing phone calls to foreign leaders, to the point where his Nat Sec team had to hide all of them on a secret server.
- That means actual transcripts - not documents redacted to hide actual crimes - exist of these cringe worthy phone calls.
- It is possible that tapes exist.

At some point, it seems inevitable that either the actual transcripts will be leaked to the House or Trump will have them destroyed.  Either one would be enough to remove him from office in a sane world.

We, sadly, do not live in a sane world.

Rats, Sinking Ships, Etc.

These two pieces are nice pairs.  First, we have a reminder that the critical boob in all this is some hotel developer who landed a diplomatic job with no experience and proceeded to find himself in the middle of perhaps the biggest scandal in presidential history.  Sondland is an idiot who can neither protect his boss or himself. He's in a hole and continues to dig.

The second is a typical Robert Costa piece, whereby he quotes anonymous GOP figures who are tearing what's left of their hair out, but can't figure out how to extricate themselves from Trump's grip on the party.

These are not bright people.  Not in the White House, not on Capitol Hill. Luckily, a considerable part of America wants to be lead by not bright people apparently.

So there we have it.

Can Trump Hold His Base?

These poll numbers from the South should be concerning for Republicans.  The states polled are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.  Of those states, only Virginia voted for Clinton, and they don't like Trump too much, if last night's Nationals game is any indication. His job approval rating in those states is 52% approve, 47% disapprove, 1% who is Donald Trump?

You have to figure that Trump is killing it in Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi.  He's likely floundering in Virginia.  To give you some examples, Trump won 62% in Alabama, 60% in Arkansas, 59% in Louisiana, 58% in Mississippi, 55% in South Carolina and 60% in Tennessee.  He only won 44% in Virginia.

That leaves Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas.  In Georgia, Trump only won 50.7% of the vote, though Clinton only carried 45% as Gary Johnson ran pretty strongly in Georgia.  Still, Trump could be under 50% by now. In Florida, he only won 49%.  Same in North Carolina. He won barely 52% in Texas.   Texas.

The problem of course, is that Clinton only earned 47.8% in Florida, 46% in NC and 43% in Texas.  Some of this is because of Hillary Clinton, some is because of the (D) next to her name.  Still, Trump's approval numbers in the part of the country where he should be strongest suggest that there is a pretty decent opportunity to flip Georgia and North Carolina.  I hold out no hope for a free and fair election in Florida. 

Still, if Trump is struggling to keep his approval numbers above water in the South, what does that say about his ability to retain Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Wisconsin?  What about Arizona? 

As the news cycles continue to flay Trump's ego and his polls numbers slowly erode, he will likely rely more on his base instincts to rally the Trumpenproletariat.  That means more of "Trump Unleashed."

It's going to be ugly as the world's most powerful narcissist decompensates on the world stage.