Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

No Clue

The British Parliamentary system is a masterpiece of norms and traditions. Britain's "constitution" isn't a binding fundamental law like the US Constitution, so there is no such thing as judicial review. Anything Parliament does is de facto constitutional, though there are some decently strong guardrails that usually deal with unusual power plays or violations of the spirit of the system.  Sure, there are some documents like the Magna Carta, the Bill of Rights of 1689 and some others that are the "constitution" but that is all about tradition.  If Parliament wanted to abolish the monarchy, they could do it with a simple majority vote. The Prime Minister is Prime Minister because they command a majority in the House of Commons, usually making it a much more efficient system than America's system of checks and balances.

All of this is to say that what is happening now is unprecedented. The Commons is in chaos because Boris Johnson - Britain's Trump - is currently Prime Minister without a working majority.  When this happens, there is usually an election, but no one knows exactly what an election will bring about so no one is too eager to have one.

The crux of the matter is that David Cameron tried to be too clever by half and called a referendum on Britain's continued membership in the EU.  Everyone expected it to fail the way the Scottish independence referendum failed.  It didn't, passing narrowly, and touching off a series of crises in British politics with no apparent end in sight. Johnson apparently negotiates like Trump, basically taking the country hostage and threatening to "prorogue" Parliament, or basically stop it from meeting but not dissolving it and having elections.  When Parliament returned from its proroguing, it would not have enough time to respond to whatever sort of Brexit Johnson negotiated.  Basically, it's a gun to the head of the Parliament, the British and European economies and the idea of Parliamentary supremacy.

Johnson has said repeatedly he's OK with a "no-deal" Brexit. That means there will suddenly be a customs logjam at British ports and a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Frankly, if a no-deal Brexit is as bad as people think it will be, I could the Scottish Parliament unilaterally declaring itself independent from that no-deal chaos.  It's just THAT messy.

Johnson clearly thinks he can hammer through a no-deal Brexit and then negotiate whatever it is that he wants while the European economy crumbles. The problem is that the population was repeatedly told that there would not be a no-deal Brexit.

They were conned, and many of them are beginning to realize this.  Still, a second referendum would soundly defeat no-deal Brexit, but likely also defeat remaining in the EU.  We just don't know.

Calling elections might help, except Britain has a weird two-and-a-half party system.  The Lib Dems were almost extinct as a party, but pro-EU Conservatives are bolting for LD.  Meanwhile, Labour has no idea what it wants as an end result.  So, it's plausible that a new election would give Johnson an outright majority with only 30% of the popular vote.  Almost all ruling parties get less than 50% of the vote, which usually doesn't matter, because - again - Britain has such strong rules and norms that most radical ideas are dismissed out of hand.  What Johnson is doing is profoundly radical.

So, there we are.

No clue.

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