Will the Ukraine Scandal be the thing that sinks Trump? I'm not seeing it yet. First of all, we don't know precisely what Trump said to the Ukrainian government. Best guess is that he threatened to hold up aid payments until they dug up dirt on Hunter Biden. If the whistleblower has some sort of tape, and on the tape is the President threatening aid payments and perhaps telling them to manufacture evidence...OK, now we are talking rank criminality.
The reality is more likely that we don't have a tape and that Trump violated campaign laws by asking a foreign government for help with his campaign. As we have seen, his cultists will excuse anything, so the GOP - which is terrified of his mouth breathing supporters - will not break with him over the arcana of campaign finance law. (It is worth remembering that campaign law violations were at the heart of Watergate, and much of our current laws were in response to this.)
And of course, sadly, we will be dependent on the news media to report on what's really happening and so far, so bad. If there is one thing the NY Times has shown since 2015 is an absolute complete lack of perspective when it comes to violations by Trump as opposed to Democrats. Most mainstream politicians push against the various rules that govern their behavior. Trump shreds them with a chainsaw, burns the tattered remnants and then pees on the ashes.
Because so much of this Ukraine scandal actually played out in the public domain this summer (Which is why I predicted it. Did I tell you I predicted it? I predicted it.), Trump and the World's Worst Lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, have basically taken the tack of "How can it be a crime if it was so obvious what we did?" Calling on Ukraine to tackle corruption before aid payments were to be released is completely legitimate. So, again, unless there's a transcript or tape of him specifically targeting Biden (and there might be), then there is enough wiggle room for the GOP to excuse his behavior. Again.
Giuliani - again, the World's Worst Lawyer - is now on record saying that Trump did not talk about a quid pro quo between the military aid and targeting Hunter Biden. Given his previous performance, it seems now almost inevitable that there was a quid pro quo. However, even this transparent lawlessness is unlikely to make a difference to the GOP. They will simply say it's politics as usual. Who WOULDN'T want dirt on their opponent, laws be damned.
Of course, Twitteramus Impatientica is demanding that Trump be impeached yesterday, despite our not having a clear idea of what was said or whether there was a tape. This thread is a succinct corrective to the IMPEACH YESTERDAY crowd. The simple fact that one of our political parties has embraced lawlessness means that we will not be unable to remove him from office before January 2021. The variation of Murc's Law that suggests that Democrats have some sort of superpowers that they aren't using is damaging to people's understanding of the reality of the situation.
The House has enough information right now to proceed with some articles of impeachment. They could refer them to the Senate by Thanksgiving. By Valentine's Day, Trump will be acquitted in the Senate. Then what? Probably by then, there will be new evidence of more wrong doing. Impeach him again? You can, but most neutral people will see this as political grandstanding. The best plan is to drag the investigations into the winter and collect all the various threads of his lawlessness and dump them on the Senate in the spring. Make Trump's corruption the theme of the 2020 election. To a certain degree, Biden and Warren are already making this their general election focus. (Warren is saying this goes beyond Trump, which is a better message that Biden who focuses on Trump's unique terribleness.)
As the Twitter thread above shows, a bunch of people who usually think they have some control over things are discovering that they can't get exactly what they want, when they want it. DoorDash or UberEats can deliver any food to your door, while you stream whatever show you want exactly when you want to see it. But the political world doesn't work that way.
I wish I could say that there was a way to hold Trump accountable for his lawlessness and rampant obstruction of justice, but I'm struggling to find it.
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