Crime

 My gut says if we lose the Senate tomorrow it will be because a fear of crime drove enough suburban women in PA, GA, AZ and OH to forget Dobbs and worry about faceless criminals.

As Scott Lemieux notes (in citing Radley Balko) the actual data on crime is mixed and confusing. Murders went up from 2020-21 but they are trending downwards. They are still higher than 2019. Other forms of crime are NOT up, despite the vibes that they are. (We just exchanged texts with our son who is in Savannah who saw a likely drug deal outside his house. That "feels" like crime is increasing.) With Fox and other news sources blaring crime stories, the actual data doesn't matter.

What is interesting is that the perception - not the reality, but the perception - is that Democrats slashed funding to the police. Didn't happen outside Portland and Minneapolis. There does seem to be some instances of police forces being understaffed, but there was no concerted effort to make that happen. In fact, the Biden Administration spend MORE money on cops.

Yet we will likely get a Republican House and possibly Senate because people just naturally trust the party of January 6th to be the law and order party.