Jon Ralston is the "dean of Nevada politics" and he thinks that Catherine Cortez Mastro will likely pull out a narrow win in Nevada, based on the currently uncounted ballots being primarily from Las Vegas, where she's win closing to 60% of the vote.
Mark Kelly still looks most likely to hold on and win in Arizona, which gets Democrats to 50 seats, plus Kamala Harris' tiebreaking vote.
Which SHOULD mean that the Georgia referendum won't have an impact on control of the Senate - there won't be enough Democrats to end the filibuster - and hopefully the people of Georgia will decide that embarrassing themselves by electing a benighted fool like Herschel Walker isn't worth dragging themselves to the polls.
51-49 is better than 50-50 for a number of reasons. First, Senate terms are for 6 years and the 2024 map has Democrats defending Senate seats in Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin and West Virginia, with precious few opportunities to pick off Republican seats.
Secondly, the dynamic of 50-50 allowed Manchin and Sinema to play off each other. There is a slim but existing chance that Democrats improbably hold on to the House by the skin of their teeth. If so, Democratic leadership can negotiate with Manchin OR Sinema for the 50th vote.
In the end, the narrow losses in North Carolina and Wisconsin's Senate races hurt for precisely this six year cycle reason. Still, being able to fill judgeships and pass (part of) the federal budget is critical.
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