Terrorism Is A Means, Not An End

 Martin Longman takes a brief biographical detour before making some good points about this weekend's terrorist attack in Israel. Here's his main point:

Of course, the end game is the first thing people should think about before they start shooting. One thing almost everyone seems to agree about is that Hamas was motivated by a desire to derail any deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia to normalize relations. I think they’ll be successful in that because I can’t imagine a response from Israel that won’t outrage the Muslim world and make it impossible for the Saudis to continue negotiations.

Still, much like America after 9/11, the main thing Israel has in their favor right now is sympathy from much of the world, including many erstwhile critics. America foolishly squandered that good will, and Israel should be mindful not to senselessly repeat the mistake. I know they will want to deter a repeat attack of this nature, and they think a disproportionate response is the only way to accomplish that. I also know that concessions in the near term are both politically difficult and run counter to deterrence. But cool heads are needed.

Terrorism is the tactic of the weaker side. It uses the vulnerability of its opponents - usually some form of open society - to inflict horrific deaths intended to prompt a response. It doesn't seem like most people remember what the actual point of 9/11 was. It was to drag America into a series of wars in the Middle East that would make the US and the West more generally toxic to the Muslim world. Americans killing Muslims was designed to recreate the strict piety that Bin Laden aspired to for the Muslim world. The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were exactly what Bin Laden wanted.

And it failed. Certainly America's actions in Iraq were inexcusable, but the massive blowback against America and the West didn't exactly happen. Certainly Al Qaeda's heirs in ISIS were unable to establish the Wahhabist caliphate that was supposed to be the "endgame" for the atrocity of 9/11.

The growing consensus is that Hamas is trying to derail the normalization of relations between Israel and the Persian Gulf states. They commit atrocities and we know that Israel does not allow terror attacks to go unpunished. Thousands are going to die in Gaza before all this is over and it will be impossible for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. 

What Hamas must have realized is that Palestinians have lost the attention of the rest of the Arab world. In choosing between the suffering of Gaza and the economic and security benefits of relations with Israel, the latter wins. Here was their last opportunity to maintain the allegiance of other Arab groups in the Middle East.

It seems clear that Iran (and I'm guessing Syria) had a hand in planning the attacks. Both Iran and Syria have the same interest in derailing the normalization process. 

(Let's take a moment to reflect on who was NOT a part of Hamas or Iran's plans: the United States. Not everything is about us. For everyone on the Right and Left pointing a finger at Biden or Raytheon or what the fuck ever, shut up. It's not about us. It's not about "weakness"; it's not about "colonialism". Stop it.)

Hamas will likely get the response it wants. Thousands of Palestinians in Gaza are going to die. That's what they want. Let's be really clear about that: Hamas wants and needs dead Palestinians. Israel is so outraged that they will get that response. What the experience with 9/11 suggests is that Hamas is not guaranteed the second part of their plan. They might exhaust the goodwill Israel has at the moment, by luring them into the crowded streets of Gaza and creating a free fire zone that will leave thousands dead. The central calculus of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States won't really change, though. They might not be able to normalize relations in 2024, but memories will fade and the incentives will remains the same.

As for Israel, it will be interesting, I guess, to see if Netanyahu survives this. His corrupt hold on power was predicated on national security. He failed. In a sane world, he would be finished, but violence first destroys logic before even the dead have been buried. 

I spoke to a friend in Tel Aviv to see if he was alright. He was but he said, "Much ugliness to follow."

That is Hamas' goal. They want the ugly.