Joe Biden and thus Kamala Harris were hurt by the unfair perception that they were in charge during much of Covid and therefore responsible for things like school closings and inflation. The American economy is the envy of the world and it sure looks like Trump is going to fuck that up. So, it's important for people to feel good about the economy now, so they feel the brunt of Trump's economic shocks appropriately. The worst thing that could happen politically for Dems is if Trump doesn't do what he says he will.
In international relations, we have something similar, but less obvious. Many poorly informed people feel the world is falling apart. Again, I think the post-Covid societal dynamics have created an effect similar to sloshing a bowl of water around. Some of it is spilling over the edge and this has created some odd disruptions.
The pre-eminent stories are Ukraine and Israel/Palestine, and the former looks bleak. It doesn't look like Ukraine will regain its lost territories and will be forced to sue for peace.
In the Middle East, things are moving very fast and very chaotically. Hamas is beaten to shit; Hezbollah has been decapitated; Assad has fled; the Iranian regime can't keep the lights on. I'm not certain Israel has completely won that conflict, because they have taken a very real hit in terms of public perception of the very legitimacy of the existence of Israel (not that they give a shit). There is no question that Iran's Axis of Resistance has gotten the living shit beaten out of them.
Enter (re-enter) Donald Trump, who understands on one level that his rural voters are not interested in fighting wars, but a man whose imperial vanity presumes some desire to conquer. If we were about to hand off to President-elect Harris, I think we might be optimistic that the people of Syria and Iran might see not just regime change but positive regime change. As it is, I feel it's inevitable that Trump will engage in some act of belligerent militarism. Let's take some of his words at face value:
- Re-taking the Panama Canal. If he does this, Sheinbaum opens the gate for migrants to move through Mexico to the US. An area - central America - that has beginning to see a little more stability gets thrown into more chaos. The revulsion around the world and the hemisphere would be complete. This is Putin-level shit.
- Greenland. WTF? His obsession with Greenland is really, really weird.
- Annexing Canada. You know what? Go for it! Canadians are more liberal than Americans on a lot of issues. A Canadian/US merger would insure Democratic majorities for the next 40 years. Not going to happen, but please proceed.
- Attacking Mexico. I'm worried this is going to happen. Could it help reduce the cartels? Anything's possible. Shooting it out with gangsters rarely works, but the US military is a categorical difference. Again, the impact on world and Western hemisphere opinion would be catastrophic.
- Attack Iran. If there are sane heads in the Pentagon, and they need to attack somewhere to placate this gibbering moron, a series of strikes in Iran would appeal to a faction of military leaders (as long as there are no boots on the ground). Would the strikes extend the life of the religious regime or hasten its demise? Most likely the former. Letting Iran (or Russia) collapse under the weight of sanctions would be the best outcome.
The thing is, there's no way to predict what's coming. The world is beginning to regain its post-Covid equilibrium, and this chimp is going to start flinging pooh everywhere.
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