Violence Is Bad, Actually

 When the United Health CEO was gunned down in the street, there was a certain shrugging among many - myself included, I confess - and outright celebration in some quarters. The widespread perception that American health care is needlessly difficult and expensive is rooted in some reality, though it's simplistic to lay all the blame on insurance companies. American doctors and pharmaceutical companies are the highest compensated in the world and are very protective of that. Still, insurance companies very often suck.

The assassin turned out not to be the vanguard of the long awaited leftist revolution, but a Unabomber adjacent, right wing tech bro. His political leanings are no doubt all over the map, but like the would-be Trump assassin, he's another alienated young man who resents his lack of specialness and lashes out in a flamboyant way. 

Oddly, this links in my mind to this Yglesias piece about the "New Cold War." In it, he laments that the emerging Cold War between the US and China has dire consequences for humanitarian goals in the developing world. America's own muddled, self-centered and transactional foreign policy under Trump accelerates a complication of American policy that promotes democracy. Meanwhile, China builds infrastructure for authoritarian regimes in Africa.

What this means in general is that what used to be called "brush wars" - small, violent conflicts in developing world countries - are on the rise. 

However, we have to look at the broader context of bigger wars - notably Ukraine and whatever we want to call the ongoing conflict in the neighborhood of Israel. The legitimation of violence spirals into all sorts of unknown outcomes. 

In Ukraine, that country seems likely to have to cede large swaths of territory for peace, but meanwhile, Russia is also suffering economically and among its allies in Africa and the Middle East. The loss of Assad is a real blow to Russia. Meanwhile, in the broader war between Israel and Iranian proxies - started by Hamas - the Iranian proxies are reeling and Iran is back on its heels. Meanwhile, Israel is cementing its status as a pariah nation in some corners, even as it decimates Hamas, Hezbollah and now watches as Assad topples.

Violence - whether ostensibly revolutionary like the health care assassin or wars of choice - often unleashes forces that tear at the civic fabric within and between nations. It leads to unexpected outcomes that surprise even the most farsighted. 

Maybe we will look at recent events in 15 years and see a smaller but more prosperous Ukraine well integrated into Europe, and burgeoning democracy in Syria. 

I have my doubts.