Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Thursday, July 7, 2011

The Latest Word

There goes Pelosi... Biden... Reid... And there's Obama last out of the clown car.

Now we hear that Obama has offered Le Grande Bargain.  They're talking $4 trillion in deficit reduction that includes cuts to entitlements, discretionary spending and increased revenues.  The devil is obviously in the details - my guess is the Social Security cuts are means tested - but this is especially true of the revenue portion.

Having proposed this, we shall see if there is anything the GOP will do with it.

On the one hand, Obama has called the GOP bluff on deficits and simultaneously endeared himself to the Very Serious People of Washington who LOVE Le Grande Bargain.  For them, Tip O'Neill and St. Ronald of Reagan sitting down together and saving Social Security is the awesomest thing ever in the history of forever and ever amen.

If the cuts are bad, I have to wonder WTF Obama is doing.  Defending Medicare and Social Security is the route back to a Democratic majority in the House.  Unless maybe he's offering an unbelievable package to the GOP, knowing they will vote against it, cementing for even the most serious of Very Serious People the idea that the GOP is f-ing nuts.

It's the old Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

UPDATE: I think John Cole is right on target here.

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

Tick Tock


We get closer and closer to Default Day.  Even David Brooks has come out and said the GOP has gone crazy.

Thanks, Bobo, where have you been for the past two four six eight thirty years.

We will increasingly see the so-called mainstream Republicans and the Wall Street GOP start to push the Congressional GOP to get this done.  Hoyer just said that any Democratic votes in the House would require revenue increases.  Oddly, this might make it easier for the "sane" Republicans to cave on taxes.

More interestingly, Kent Conrad has introduced a bill that closes the deficit with 50% spending cuts and 50% revenue increases.

In other words, a responsible bill.

Hope it gets a vote in the Senate.

It will be a nice change of pace for decent legislation to die in the House for a change.

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

"If I've Lost Cronkite, I've Lost America"


And if you've lost David Brooks and Roger Cohen, you've lost the Conventional Wisdom Brigade.

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2011/07/05/tuesday-morning-open-thread-5/

Brooks and Cohen both come to the conclusion that many sane people reached in 2009 and 2010.  The GOP has gone insane.  Cohen calls it a "cult".  They have abandoned reason for Norquist's "pledge".  They have decided that forcing a Second Great Depression on us is a political win.  They think - as John McCain said - that "Americans don't want compromise".

In a just world, we could find a way to punish the GOP for their idolatry before the altar of Fake Reagan without cratering the global economy.

We do not live in a just world.

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Happy Independence Weekend

This guy has a clear understanding of the principles of self-government.

So, yesterday was the anniversary of the Continental Congress voting to declare their independence from Great Britain.  Tomorrow we will celebrate the publication of that vote by exploding Chinese fireworks and drinking German beer.

We seem to feel a need to commemorate things.  We latch on to dates like limpets on the hull of a ship.  We are about to enter 9/11 Tenth Anniversary Rememberathon that will induce a combination of tears and nausea alternately depending on what's happening at any given moment.  Roger Cohen starts it of here.  It's a fine essay, but somewhat navel gazing.  Eloquent but somehow adding up to less than the sum of it's fine writing.

Anyway, back to 1776.

As I wrote the other day, it is saddening to be a history teacher in an era of rampant historical illiteracy.  Of course, this era began with Herodotus and has continued unabated ever since.  We have never really known or understood our past, which is why everyone knows the Santayana quote.  We continue to repeat the errors of our grandparents.

Instead we focus on superficialities like dates and anniversaries.  What's more important?  Your wedding anniversary or your marriage?

Take the Declaration itself.  The Unitarian church - full of jihadists, no doubt - has a reading of the Declaration, and it's a great reminder of how boring the document is once you get past the stirring preamble.  It's mostly a whiny list of things George III did that we find mean.

He didst come over for a barbeque and not bringest his own beer or even potato salad.
He didst expel flatus in a closed room and not say, Sorry, that was mine.
He didst finish the milk and putteth the empty carton back in the fridge.

But we forget all that and focus on the "all men are created equal" without really dwelling on what that means. We forget that the most important documents in our history are all aspirational.  The Declaration's radical assertions of human liberty and self-governance were unique in the world at that time.  Today, those ideas rule the world.  The Constitution proffered the dream of a "more perfect union" and Madison hoped the document would last 50 years, but he was not hopeful.  Over 200 years later, we still abide by its structures.  The Emancipation Proclamation did not free a single slave in actuality but created an expectation that one day all Americans would be free.  The Gettysburg Address, the Four Freedoms speech and MLK's Dream speech are all about a world that might be, not one that is.

If you don't understand that these documents are about creating a better world, then you cannot understand the basic idea of citizenship.  You cannot understand the promise of America.  For centuries, people understood that the circumstances of their birth would be the circumstances of their life.  America - a product of the Enlightenment - was about perfecting the world.  That has been the foundation of the American Dream.

So, in between beers and barbeque, in between hot dogs and hot asphalt, take a moment to dedicating yourself to improving this country, this world.  Look beyond the calender.  Look beyond the surface.

We're kind of screwed up right now.

We could use all the help we could get.

Saturday, July 2, 2011

Everything Old Is New Again

"No one ever listens..."

I'm still slogging through Lords of Finance.  I just got to the part - in 1931 - where all the European countries decided they should force austerity measures on the struggling economies of Germany, Austria and England.

Can I just say that being a history teacher is a despair inducing job, since no one seems to learn anything from us?

Friday, July 1, 2011

Not Much To Say

Don't really have much to say today, unless you want to watch the PowerPoint I'm making on the causes of the Great Depression.

So - unlike Thing Two - not having anything to say, I won't say anything.

Damn, that kid can talk.

But he hates Bieber, so I give this pic...

Thursday, June 30, 2011

Mark Halperin Is A Dick

Mark Halperin (R) with the First Lady.

Been offline most of the day, but when I finally get on, everybody's talking about Mark Halperin calling the President a "dick" for what he said in the press conference yesterday.  You remember, the press conference where the President suggested firmly that Congress stop playing games and avoid an economic collapse?

So many good thing have been written about it by others I'll just go Linkapalooza:

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/06/30/fire_halperin

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/msnbcs-suspension-of-mark-halperin-is-way-over-the-top/2011/03/03/AGjCnAsH_blog.html

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2011/06/30/the-mask-slips/

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/06/the-real-dickishness-problem/241288/

Shorter version: Halperin should be fired because he's an awful, awful political reporter who is terrible, awful, dreadful at his job.  Not because he called Obama a Cheney.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Facts Have A Well Known Liberal Bias


This makes more sense than supply side economics.

The Most Radiant and Splendid Wife and Bestest Friend Evah brought to my attention a study that looked at states that have cut spending since 2007 and states that have raised spending since 2007.  And then looked at their unemployment rates.  Guess what?

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/06/27/255010/chart-states-cut-most-spending-jobs/

Once again, you return to the basic equation of demand: D=CS+BI+GS+(E-I).

Demand = Consumer spending+Business Investment+Government Spending +(Exports-Imports)

In the face of declining consumer and business spending, government spending should be used to stimulate demand.

There really is no counter-argument to this that I have heard that makes a damned bit of sense.  But according to the GOP, it's all about supply-side.  So, cut spending and cut taxes and jobs will magically appear.

This study above is about the millionth to show that supply side economics is so full of crap that its eyes are brown.

The same supply side idiots who are cutting budgets and cutting taxes are the same idiots who predicted that Bush 1.0 and Clinton's tax increases would lead to a recession and high unemployment.  They also said that the Bush 2.0 tax cuts would create a "rising tide that would lift all boats."  Crap and crap.

So, with all due respect to my lovely, intelligent and charming wife, having facts on your side won't matter a lick with these people.

It never has.

Predictable

Well.... Yeah.

With the US government about to default on its debt and turn a weak recovery into a strong depression, Chuck Todd asked Obama at his press conference if he thought marriage was a right.

Obama basically ducked the question.

TBogg, whom I have the utmost respect for, says Obama's response is crap.

The thing is, there is a very serious series of issues that the President has on his plate right now.  The debt ceiling and whatever godawful screw the poor deficit reduction package that will come out of it; Libya; Afghanistan; the coming election; a host of issues that he mentioned in his presser including patent reform of all things.

If Obama had said what I imagine he believes - that, yes, same sex couples should have the right to get married - then that would be the ENTIRE lede for this presser.  "Obama Shifts Position On Gay Marriage!!!11!!"  And his very firm message to Congress to get its ass in gear would've been lost as the national media dissected how Obama's new position on gay marriage played in Ohio.

Obama has been very, very good on LGBT issues.  And frankly, a state-by-state method at first, followed by overturning DOMA would accomplish a lot more than Obama stepping all over his message at today's press confab.

But if TBogg is already declaring Obama a sellout, I can only imagine what the rest of the nutballs at FDL or Daily Kos are posting right about now.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Required Reading

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/column-in-praise-of-mitch-mcconnell/2011/05/19/AGoMj1oH_blog.html

You want to understand Washington today in 500 words or so?  Read this.

Bipartisanship Fail

Hey, GOP!  Joe Lieberman ain't a Democrat!

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/06/top-dems-reject-coburn-lieberman-plan-to-raise-medicare-eligibility.php?ref=fpa

Just because you got one of the biggest assholes in the Senate to agree with you, doesn't mean that this is a bipartisan plan.  It just means Lieberman is going out as only Lieberman can.

http://www.chrismurphy.com/

It's Enron's World, We Just Pay The Rent

The birth of a corporate attorney.

http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-little-house-secrets-great-plains-113759191.html

In the 19th century, the Supreme Court was hearing a question about railroads.  The clerk of the court, a former railroad attorney, inserted a comment by the Chief Justice.  The comment went something like this, "We are not going to determine whether a corporation is a person for the purpose of 14th Amendment protections, but let's assume for the moment that this is true."

That non-opinion opinion has basically shaped the legal status of corporations in America.  While some of it had its roots in the Marshall court, the real jump came in the first Gilded Age with that inserted comment.

The Court in that era actually said that the 14th Amendment protects corporations more than African Americans.

The result is that an American ethos that values the independence of individuals has been warped to value the independence of corporations.

If I could offer one amendment to the Constitution, it would be to strip corporations of their "personhood".  Limited liability, legal protections, sure.  Personhood?  No.

Raise The Roof!


We need a new roof.

We have not had a real raise in three years.

We cannot afford a new roof.

So, we might liquidate some of those retirement equities those ads during golf tournaments are always going on about.  You know, "JT Moneybags, Inc, Ltd, can make it so that you own a vineyard and eat Cialis by the handfull in your matching tubs with a wife that looks suspiciously younger than you."

Anyway, after reading about the latest GOP blustering about refusing to raise ANY revenues as part of the debt ceiling negotiations, I'm thinking maybe I should transfer all of my holdings into Greek Drachmas or Russian Facebook or maybe give it to a Nigerian who needs help, but can pay me later.

When Glenn Beck was shilling for that "We buy gold!" company because Obama was gonna be all Soshalust on your ass and you needed to stockpile guns, gold and canned foods, turns out he was on to something.

Of course, he was wrong about the cause, because he's Glenn Beck.

Obama isn't out to destroy the American economy and way of life.

Mitch McConnell is.

UPDATE: Mark Zandi weighs in here.

Monday, June 27, 2011

Manic Progressives Strike Again


When it comes to the "Left" there is nothing that fails like success.

New York became the largest state not only to allow marriage equality, but also to do it through the legislature rather than the courts.

This, of course, shows what a bad president Obama is.

The repeal of DADT is just so yesterday, the real issue now is DOMA.  Now, Obama's Justice Department has decided not to defend DOMA in courts, because they think it's unconstitutional.  But since Obama has not personally divorced Michelle and married Dan Choi, his lack of vocal support for same-sex marriage is seen as a betrayal.  Also, too, no one seems to be able to add to 60.  As Matt Yglesias argues, what matters here is political institutions.

Cuomo was much more publicly aggressive in pushing for marriage equality than Obama was for most of his legislative agenda.  Part of that is personality.  Obama tends to avoid grandstanding, Cuomo seems to enjoy it.  Obama, unlike say Clinton, does not want to be the story; he doesn't need to be "the bride at every wedding, the corpse at every funeral."  So his style lacks the combativeness that many on the Left want to see.

But Cuomo had two huge advantages over Obama on, say, ACA.  One was, Cuomo didn't need a supermajority and was not facing a legislative branch bent on his destruction.  Second, same-sex marriage is pretty popular in New York.  ACA never enjoyed that much popularity.

At the time, I couldn't see a path clear to a public option with Lieberman, Nelson, Lincoln and Landrieu all blocking the way (and then Brown and Snowe).  Reconciliation would have been a temporary fix. Given that the GOP is trying to end MEDICARE, it is unlikely the public option could have survived the inevitable return to power of the GOP, unless it was written into ACA, not passed through reconciliation.

Obama's brand of leadership actually probably helped pass DADT repeal.  It probably meant that ACA was not as strongly progressive as it might have been.

But ultimately, to return to Yglesias' point, institutions matter.  A lot.  And political culture matters a lot, too.

Right now, the institution of the Congress, especially the Senate, is broken.  It does not function properly.  Lyndon Johnson, whose legislative prowess is rightly celebrated on the Left by those who disparage Obama, had a super-majority in the Senate.  So did FDR.  Obama had 58 votes and Lieberman and Nelson.

The political culture has also changed.  Political polarization is hardly new, but it strikes me as an unusual combination of toxic divisions and crisis.  Usually in a crisis (1861, 1933) one side has control of the agenda.  The Democrats never had complete control of the agenda.  McConnell's refusal to grant unanimous consent, the holding up of trivial executive branch appointees and the filibustering of everything in sight, robbed the Administration of momentum and opportunities.

They still passed a historic health care bill and a lot of other legislation.  Obama' legislative record is as good as any president since LBJ.

But it's still not enough.  I actually saw a diary at DKos that hoped Obama would lose so that we could elect a "real" progressive in 2016.  One look at Wisconsin, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia or Michigan SHOULD make that person a laughingstock of anyone to the left of David Brooks.  But, sadly, sage heads nod along and complain about how Obama is no better than Bush/Walker/Reagan.

Ultimately, the reason Obama is struggling with parts of his base is not because he has failed to deliver progressive change, but because they are ignorant of basic math (how to count to 60) and of the political culture of the United States (a lot more conservative than they think it is).  They are ignorant of the history of progressive change and how slowly it evolves.  They are knowledgeable only about their own feelings and their own agenda.

The problems with Obama's base is Obama's base, not Obama.

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Required Reading

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2011/06/25/acknowledging-the-recalcitrant-elephant-in-the-room/

I ran into an ex-student of mine and we were discussing just this issue.  The GOP really seems willfully intent on wrecking the economy.  The sooner people start pointing this out, the better off the long term prognosis might become.

Might.