Vengeance

 The Incumbency Problem has been stalking global politics since Covid, but really since 2008. The financial crisis brutalized a lot of people, but not the actors most responsible for it happening. As Krugman notes (indirectly), Democrats have let people off the hook far too often when taking power. In Obama's case, Krugman faults him for not prosecuting those who lied us into Iraq, but the stronger argument was in failing to prosecute Wall Street. 

The recovery from 2008 was solid, but tilted initially far more towards Wall Street than Main Street. Biden was not going to get caught in that, and his recovery plan from 2021 was designed to help the average person, as well as forestall an economic contraction. Even more than just "helping", it really does seem like what the average person wants is vengeance. 

Sure, the Covid checks were nice, but they want to blame someone for being afraid, for disrupting their lives. That's why we have these stupid attacks on Fauci. The problem is that there really isn't someone to "blame" for Covid. I would argue that Trump's feckless, moronic leadership made things worse, and the high death rate in the US would seem to back that up. But the virus itself can't be held accountable. It's a virus. So instead, we have the Lab Leak deadenders, the Fauci Jihadists, the Antivaxxer Brigade. None of it really makes sense looking at the evidence, but it does make sense if you understand that people want to blame other people, not the impersonal universe.

This is why incumbent parties lost power all over the world since Covid. People need to blame someone, so they blamed those in charge. Sadly for Democrats, people don't seem to remember who was in charge in 2020. If Covid 19 had been Covid 18, I think Democrats win in 2024. 

All of this brings us back to Trump and his brazen lawlessness. Elliot Morris notes (paywall) that Trump is obviously hated by Democrats, but increasingly hated by Independents, too. What's more, his own supporters are getting more and more disillusioned by him. All of this points to another Blue Wave election - even with the gerrymandering. 

If Democrats do win both Houses, they cannot try and "govern" in the way they typically do when there is divided government. They have to go medieval on Trump's diapered ass. The reason why insurgent candidates are cleaning up in primary elections is not a deep and abiding love for "socialism" whatever that might mean to voters. It's a deeper feeling that Democrats have spend far too much time trying to repair the damage Republican policies have wrought and not enough time putting heads on spikes. Why trust that cadre to do anything different this time?