This is a nice run-down of how Trump has systematically abused the Constitution of the United States by refusing all Congressional oversight. It's obviously been a push-pull act for decades - if not a century - over the proper role of the Congress to oversee the Executive. There are obvious areas where the presidency has some leeway over what they can do unilaterally.
What Trump has done has been to willfully and directly violate some statutes and then dared anyone to do anything about it. With a majority of the Republican electorate behind him, he's inoculated from repercussions inside the GOP, so he feels unbound. Fox News is both the catalyst for his crimes and the shieldwall against accountability. Because Fox basically tells the GOP base what to believe, they will never break with Trump until Murdoch, Hannity and Carlson do. This has plunged them into an alternative reality with dire consequences for the Republic.
Once the malignant narcissist is gone, Congress will need to assert some control over the White House. Legal penalties for failing to respond to subpoenas, for instance. What they can do about Fox News is a far trickier subject.
Monday, October 7, 2019
Sunday, October 6, 2019
The Real Deep State
Just because Trumpistas like to whine about the Deep State doesn't mean there isn't a national security apparatus that can seriously ruin your day.
So far we know of three whistleblowers. There is apparently one with complaints about the handling of Trump's tax returns, but that one is largely being ignored in the blizzard of revelations over Ukraine.
We now have a second whistleblower on the Ukraine phone call. While we don't know the identity of the first whistleblower, yet, these are both apparently intelligence officers. In other words, they work for the CIA, DIA or NSA. These are serious people who usually only act when they have a plan. Getting the first whistleblower out there has laid the ground for subsequent revelations. (That Trump can't stop himself from doing crimes on TV is probably more than they expected.)
Trump's phone calls have been hidden - possibly illegally - on a secret server. The idea that there are additional, damning phone calls is real. The other reality is that there are therefore likely to be more whistleblowers, perhaps on calls to other countries.
This has made Republicans very reluctant to defend Trump in public. There are some efforts to shift the conversation AWAY from the Ukraine calls, but no effort to defend the actual calls themselves. Any smart Republican - I assume there are some - will want to stay away from the microphones as long as possible.
The shoes are dropping like crazy, and no one has an umbrella.
So far we know of three whistleblowers. There is apparently one with complaints about the handling of Trump's tax returns, but that one is largely being ignored in the blizzard of revelations over Ukraine.
We now have a second whistleblower on the Ukraine phone call. While we don't know the identity of the first whistleblower, yet, these are both apparently intelligence officers. In other words, they work for the CIA, DIA or NSA. These are serious people who usually only act when they have a plan. Getting the first whistleblower out there has laid the ground for subsequent revelations. (That Trump can't stop himself from doing crimes on TV is probably more than they expected.)
Trump's phone calls have been hidden - possibly illegally - on a secret server. The idea that there are additional, damning phone calls is real. The other reality is that there are therefore likely to be more whistleblowers, perhaps on calls to other countries.
This has made Republicans very reluctant to defend Trump in public. There are some efforts to shift the conversation AWAY from the Ukraine calls, but no effort to defend the actual calls themselves. Any smart Republican - I assume there are some - will want to stay away from the microphones as long as possible.
The shoes are dropping like crazy, and no one has an umbrella.
International Kleptocracy
Dan Nexon at LGM makes an important point about the link between most of the shitty things happening in the world today and a broadly undemocratic international wealthy class. Putin is likely richer than Jeff Bezos, or could be if he wanted to. It's not just the various undemocratic regimes of rich men like Putin, bin Salman or Xi. It's the fact that they have influence beyond their borders. Putin and Russian money helped sell Brexit, which is turning Britain into a dysfunctional disaster.
And it extends to these shores. There are plenty of rich Americans who hide their money and influence from public accountability. They shape laws behind closed doors and hide behind court ruling like Citizens United that were crafted by wealth-serving judges.
Take Warren's wealth tax. While a certain amount of wealth is immobile, much of it is able to move from shadowy banking system to shadowy equity markets without much oversight. It would not be enough to simply pass the wealth tax, it will have to come with a massive reconfiguration of international financial rules.
After World War II, the US shepherded the Bretton Woods agreement into existence. While it was hardly perfect, it created structures to allow for greater freedom of trade that benefited Europe, the US and developing world countries that needed investment. Globalization is a popular punching bag for populists of all stripes, but it has been generally a positive development for the very poor. However, traveling with these reforms has been the freeing of capital markets to create an international class of very wealthy people who are immune from the laws of nation states.
That has to change if the world will have a democratic future.
And it extends to these shores. There are plenty of rich Americans who hide their money and influence from public accountability. They shape laws behind closed doors and hide behind court ruling like Citizens United that were crafted by wealth-serving judges.
Take Warren's wealth tax. While a certain amount of wealth is immobile, much of it is able to move from shadowy banking system to shadowy equity markets without much oversight. It would not be enough to simply pass the wealth tax, it will have to come with a massive reconfiguration of international financial rules.
After World War II, the US shepherded the Bretton Woods agreement into existence. While it was hardly perfect, it created structures to allow for greater freedom of trade that benefited Europe, the US and developing world countries that needed investment. Globalization is a popular punching bag for populists of all stripes, but it has been generally a positive development for the very poor. However, traveling with these reforms has been the freeing of capital markets to create an international class of very wealthy people who are immune from the laws of nation states.
That has to change if the world will have a democratic future.
Saturday, October 5, 2019
Injustice Department
When they finally drag that bloated orange narcissist from the Oval Office, repairing the damage to the DOJ will be a priority. After trying to accomplish it with Sessions, Trump finally found his "criminal lawyer" in Barr. Barr's "Justice" department has routinely shielded Trump from criminal charges. What should worry them all is that the DOJ is full of lawyers who know what the law actually is. Presumably, they are stockpiling evidence of how they have been pressured.
Frankly, I would love to see the ABA move to disbar Barr. There are very few checks on the Attorney General, as long as Trump has his back. He should be impeached and removed, but we all know that won't happen. Disbarring him would be a signal to the rest of the lawyers at Justice of what their long term interests are.
Frankly, I would love to see the ABA move to disbar Barr. There are very few checks on the Attorney General, as long as Trump has his back. He should be impeached and removed, but we all know that won't happen. Disbarring him would be a signal to the rest of the lawyers at Justice of what their long term interests are.
Enjoy The Weekend
What are the odds that either:
A) Trump does not commit another crime on television?
or
B) More evidence of his existing crimes doesn't come out?
A million to one?
A reminder that it's been 11 days since the impeachment inquiry was launched.
Just 11 days....
A) Trump does not commit another crime on television?
or
B) More evidence of his existing crimes doesn't come out?
A million to one?
A reminder that it's been 11 days since the impeachment inquiry was launched.
Just 11 days....
Friday, October 4, 2019
China, If You're Listening...
China should open a corruption probe of Donald Jr and Eric Trump. I mean...Trump asked them to, so they could say that they are simply following his advice. Pretty good leverage for ending the trade war.
Plus, that would be some A+ trolling.
Plus, that would be some A+ trolling.
Thursday, October 3, 2019
He Can't Help Himself
Please stop doing new crimes so that we can properly investigate the old ones! I mean, maybe his strategy really is simply breaking so many laws that it becomes impossible to hold him accountable for breaking any single law. Beats whatever Giuliani is likely to come up with.
Wednesday, October 2, 2019
Kind Of A Big Deal
Bernie Sanders had a minor heart procedure. He had some chest pains, a blocked artery and two stints were inserted.
The age question is out there for both Biden and Sanders. Warren isn't that much younger, but her stamina is frankly amazing. More than any other candidate, Sanders' supporters are inherently suspicious of the primary process and hostile to any criticism of their Messiah. If health forced him out, that could have a very salubrious effect on the tenor of the secondary stages of the primary, as candidates are whittled down. I hope he's fine, but I also hope he considers the risks of running an arduous campaign at his age.
The age question is out there for both Biden and Sanders. Warren isn't that much younger, but her stamina is frankly amazing. More than any other candidate, Sanders' supporters are inherently suspicious of the primary process and hostile to any criticism of their Messiah. If health forced him out, that could have a very salubrious effect on the tenor of the secondary stages of the primary, as candidates are whittled down. I hope he's fine, but I also hope he considers the risks of running an arduous campaign at his age.
Amber Guyger
There was a fair amount of grateful amazement by African Americans that Guyger was convicted of murdering Botham Jean in his apartment. It certainly seemed an open-and-shut case against her, and the jury's quick deliberation seems to verify that.
The assumption of many African Americans was that white people can walk into a black person's apartment and shoot them dead and get away with it. The thing about the Guyger case was just how absurd her defense was. Who walks into an entirely different apartment and think it's theirs?
When I heard the verdict, I thought, "Well, of course." The fact that most African Americans were surprised is both sad and amazing. It's amazing that they can believe the justice system is THAT screwed up and still abide by its legitimacy. Compare this to the cryptofascist Oathkeepers who are threatening to kill people if Trump is impeached via constitutional processes and replaced with Mike Pence.
The assumption of many African Americans was that white people can walk into a black person's apartment and shoot them dead and get away with it. The thing about the Guyger case was just how absurd her defense was. Who walks into an entirely different apartment and think it's theirs?
When I heard the verdict, I thought, "Well, of course." The fact that most African Americans were surprised is both sad and amazing. It's amazing that they can believe the justice system is THAT screwed up and still abide by its legitimacy. Compare this to the cryptofascist Oathkeepers who are threatening to kill people if Trump is impeached via constitutional processes and replaced with Mike Pence.
Tuesday, October 1, 2019
This Will Work
Elizabeth Warren has the best trend lines of any Democratic primary candidate. She has the most room to grow. Even some of the Sandernistas like her, and they don't like anyone.
Her overarching message is corruption, but hating on billionaires seems like a winning strategy.
I mean, screw those guys.
Her overarching message is corruption, but hating on billionaires seems like a winning strategy.
I mean, screw those guys.
Monday, September 30, 2019
This Would Be Big
Apparently, there's a way for the Queen to dismiss Boris Johnson. Technically, it would be Members of Parliament who write the petition, but the idea would be to create a unity government from moderates on all sides.
Is there any way we can get the Queen to dismiss our straw-haired arsehole?
Is there any way we can get the Queen to dismiss our straw-haired arsehole?
Sunday, September 29, 2019
Public Opinion
We are starting to see our first polls on impeachment. Remember that most Americans don't follow politics that closely and even fewer have much idea how either impeachment works or how what Trump did was illegal. Generally speaking, we can expect that support for impeachment will grow in proportion to how well Democrats explain those two processes. Campaign finance law is fairly arcane, which is why the "treason" line is working better, even if it's not exactly accurate.
We also know that opposition to impeachment is unlikely to drop much below 35%. That's roughly been Trump's floor, and it's unlikely to drop below that. Even Nixon never dropped below about 25%.
Impeachment may appeal politically to members of the Democratic Party's base, but the real audience has to be that mushy 20% in the middle of the electorate. Combined with a message about Trump's corruption, it has to be about those broader trends leading up to the election. Unfortunately, we are already seeing the GOP playbook, which is to equate Hunter Biden's actions with the myriad crimes of this administration. It's unlikely the media will perform any better on this "Both Side" issue than they did in 2016. I hope they do. The legitimacy of our Republic rests on them doing so.
We also know that opposition to impeachment is unlikely to drop much below 35%. That's roughly been Trump's floor, and it's unlikely to drop below that. Even Nixon never dropped below about 25%.
Impeachment may appeal politically to members of the Democratic Party's base, but the real audience has to be that mushy 20% in the middle of the electorate. Combined with a message about Trump's corruption, it has to be about those broader trends leading up to the election. Unfortunately, we are already seeing the GOP playbook, which is to equate Hunter Biden's actions with the myriad crimes of this administration. It's unlikely the media will perform any better on this "Both Side" issue than they did in 2016. I hope they do. The legitimacy of our Republic rests on them doing so.
Saturday, September 28, 2019
One Stop Summary
Jon Chait has a nice summary of how the Ukraine scandal represents all of Trump's many sins. It shows how Trump's predilection for small-time mobsterism has bled into his presidency. It also notes how he sees lawyers. Giuliani and Barr are perfect lawyers for him. It reminds me of this scene in Breaking Bad:
Trump found his criminal lawyers. And they have infected the Judicial Department.
Trump found his criminal lawyers. And they have infected the Judicial Department.
Friday, September 27, 2019
The Next Inquiry
Currently the House Intelligence Committee will be investigating the Ukrainian scandal, as it purports to show how Trump abused his power by soliciting help from a foreign power against his political enemies. Some of the Twitter-sterics are apoplectic that the inquiry "will be limited to the Ukrainian scandal."
But that scandal opens up a lot of other doors to investigate. For instance, during the phone call, Zelensky pointedly says that he stayed at Trump properties. This could open an investigation into Trump for bribery and other emoluments. The actual felonies Trump may have committed are kinda murky. Sure seems like campaign finance laws were broken. Sure seems like extortion. Sure seems like obstruction of justice. But those can be trickier to prove than "abuse of power."
If Democrats use Zelensky's boast about staying at a Trump property to open a broader investigation into how Trump has funnelled business and foreign actors to his property...that's a target rich environment. It would also reinforce the accusations that Trump has been personally profiting off his presidency, which should be the focus of the 2020 election, presuming - as we all do - that the Senate won't remove him.
"Only investigating Ukraine" is still a potentially very wide ranging investigation.
But that scandal opens up a lot of other doors to investigate. For instance, during the phone call, Zelensky pointedly says that he stayed at Trump properties. This could open an investigation into Trump for bribery and other emoluments. The actual felonies Trump may have committed are kinda murky. Sure seems like campaign finance laws were broken. Sure seems like extortion. Sure seems like obstruction of justice. But those can be trickier to prove than "abuse of power."
If Democrats use Zelensky's boast about staying at a Trump property to open a broader investigation into how Trump has funnelled business and foreign actors to his property...that's a target rich environment. It would also reinforce the accusations that Trump has been personally profiting off his presidency, which should be the focus of the 2020 election, presuming - as we all do - that the Senate won't remove him.
"Only investigating Ukraine" is still a potentially very wide ranging investigation.
Thursday, September 26, 2019
It's The Corruption
The whistleblower's account of Trump's behavior is, not surprisingly, incredibly damning. It lays out the context of the withholding of aid to Ukraine with Trump's requests for help in the 2020 election. It also talks about how the Trump White House tried to bury this from Congressional oversight. My guess is that the release of the damaging transcript yesterday was thought to inoculate Trump, because it ended the efforts by his team to actively obstruct the lawful requirements of the whistleblower law. They ended the "cover up" but exposed the crime.
What's significant is that this wasn't just Trump making an off the cuff strong-arm request of Zelensky. This involved not only Trump and Giuliani, but also - at the very least - Attorney General Bill Barr. With the usual "if true" caveat, this calls into question just how much work Barr has been doing to prevent other illegal acts from seeing the light of day. Because this leak came from the national security apparatus, it came with momentum that Barr and Trump couldn't contain. The other corrupt acts - and we can be certain there are many more - may have been quashed.
We already know there is a whistleblower surrounding Trump's taxes. Depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks, we might see more and more of these allegations from whistleblowers throughout the bureaucracy.
In some ways, if this does happen, it strengthens Elizabeth Warren's case to be the Democratic nominee. Biden is basically running as the antithesis of Trump. But Warren (and Sanders) has been running against the "culture of corruption" at the heart of the government.
What's significant is that this wasn't just Trump making an off the cuff strong-arm request of Zelensky. This involved not only Trump and Giuliani, but also - at the very least - Attorney General Bill Barr. With the usual "if true" caveat, this calls into question just how much work Barr has been doing to prevent other illegal acts from seeing the light of day. Because this leak came from the national security apparatus, it came with momentum that Barr and Trump couldn't contain. The other corrupt acts - and we can be certain there are many more - may have been quashed.
We already know there is a whistleblower surrounding Trump's taxes. Depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks, we might see more and more of these allegations from whistleblowers throughout the bureaucracy.
In some ways, if this does happen, it strengthens Elizabeth Warren's case to be the Democratic nominee. Biden is basically running as the antithesis of Trump. But Warren (and Sanders) has been running against the "culture of corruption" at the heart of the government.
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