Sunday, November 3, 2019
Saturday, November 2, 2019
It's All One Scandal
Newly released documents show that the Ukraine scandal is not a separate scandal from the Russia/Mueller scandal. Needless to say, Paul Manafort was at the center of it, and he appears to be the source of Trump's bonkers theory that Ukraine secretly "framed" Trump by stealing the DNC emails and releasing them to....Yeah, it gets fuzzy there.
Pelosi has said that they won't necessarily narrowly focus the impeachment on Ukraine. My guess is that they know much of this already and are going to slowly expand the inquiry.
Not a week goes by when it doesn't get worse. Not a week goes by where that seems to matter to the GOP.
Pelosi has said that they won't necessarily narrowly focus the impeachment on Ukraine. My guess is that they know much of this already and are going to slowly expand the inquiry.
Not a week goes by when it doesn't get worse. Not a week goes by where that seems to matter to the GOP.
Friday, November 1, 2019
Katie Hill
Representative Katie Hill resigned after photos were released that showed her having sexual relations with a campaign staffer. There are allegations that she might have had relations with a congressional staffer. The latter is against House rules put in place after #MeToo exposed predatory and untoward sexual relations between members and staff on Capitol Hill.
There has been a lot of talk about double standards based on gender, and no doubt that it true. Hill is the first openly bisexual member of the House, and that no doubt feeds into the prurient interest in her sex life and the associated fact that the subordinate was a woman. The accusations of double standard usually note that Duncan Hunter - also from California, but a Republican - continues to serve, despite far worse accusations against him.
But perhaps a better analogy is Duncan Hunter, but Al Franken. Franken's behavior was bad and unworthy of a US Senator. He might have weathered the storm, and perhaps some sort of political comeback exists in his future. But he resigned, because he felt his status was damaged. He could no longer do his job. Hill made much the same point.
Hunter, however, is a Republican. His primary loyalty is to Republican voters and the Republican party. He is completely uninterested in the opinions of those who think sexual harassment is wrong, which ipso facto does include Republican voters and the Republican party.
We have entered a universe where one political party has shame and the other doesn't. One party holds itself to its ideals and an idea of justice and fairness and one doesn't.
Yes, gender played a role in Hill's treatment and her decision to resign. But don't pretend the moral bankruptcy of the GOP wasn't also an important part of this double standard.
There has been a lot of talk about double standards based on gender, and no doubt that it true. Hill is the first openly bisexual member of the House, and that no doubt feeds into the prurient interest in her sex life and the associated fact that the subordinate was a woman. The accusations of double standard usually note that Duncan Hunter - also from California, but a Republican - continues to serve, despite far worse accusations against him.
But perhaps a better analogy is Duncan Hunter, but Al Franken. Franken's behavior was bad and unworthy of a US Senator. He might have weathered the storm, and perhaps some sort of political comeback exists in his future. But he resigned, because he felt his status was damaged. He could no longer do his job. Hill made much the same point.
Hunter, however, is a Republican. His primary loyalty is to Republican voters and the Republican party. He is completely uninterested in the opinions of those who think sexual harassment is wrong, which ipso facto does include Republican voters and the Republican party.
We have entered a universe where one political party has shame and the other doesn't. One party holds itself to its ideals and an idea of justice and fairness and one doesn't.
Yes, gender played a role in Hill's treatment and her decision to resign. But don't pretend the moral bankruptcy of the GOP wasn't also an important part of this double standard.
Thursday, October 31, 2019
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
It Was Never A Transcript
News media have described the released summary of the Trump-Zelenskyy call of July 25th as a "transcript." It was never a transcript. What was so flabbergasting about the whole thing was that the White House somehow thought this redacted document proved that they had done nothing wrong, because Trump never said the words "quid pro quo." Astute observers noted that this White House has obstructed every single attempt to hold them accountable to the rule of law, and therefore it was highly unlikely that this incredibly damning document was the full story.
Well, guess what? As Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified, the document that the White House released was indeed more favorable than the more damning actual transcript.
We know the following to be true:
- The released summary of the 7/25 call was damning and included impeachable offenses.
- Trump never voluntarily complies with subpoenas, therefore there is likely a worse, even much worse accounting of that telephone conversation.
- Trump made many disturbing phone calls to foreign leaders, to the point where his Nat Sec team had to hide all of them on a secret server.
- That means actual transcripts - not documents redacted to hide actual crimes - exist of these cringe worthy phone calls.
- It is possible that tapes exist.
At some point, it seems inevitable that either the actual transcripts will be leaked to the House or Trump will have them destroyed. Either one would be enough to remove him from office in a sane world.
We, sadly, do not live in a sane world.
Well, guess what? As Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman testified, the document that the White House released was indeed more favorable than the more damning actual transcript.
We know the following to be true:
- The released summary of the 7/25 call was damning and included impeachable offenses.
- Trump never voluntarily complies with subpoenas, therefore there is likely a worse, even much worse accounting of that telephone conversation.
- Trump made many disturbing phone calls to foreign leaders, to the point where his Nat Sec team had to hide all of them on a secret server.
- That means actual transcripts - not documents redacted to hide actual crimes - exist of these cringe worthy phone calls.
- It is possible that tapes exist.
At some point, it seems inevitable that either the actual transcripts will be leaked to the House or Trump will have them destroyed. Either one would be enough to remove him from office in a sane world.
We, sadly, do not live in a sane world.
Tuesday, October 29, 2019
Rats, Sinking Ships, Etc.
These two pieces are nice pairs. First, we have a reminder that the critical boob in all this is some hotel developer who landed a diplomatic job with no experience and proceeded to find himself in the middle of perhaps the biggest scandal in presidential history. Sondland is an idiot who can neither protect his boss or himself. He's in a hole and continues to dig.
The second is a typical Robert Costa piece, whereby he quotes anonymous GOP figures who are tearing what's left of their hair out, but can't figure out how to extricate themselves from Trump's grip on the party.
These are not bright people. Not in the White House, not on Capitol Hill. Luckily, a considerable part of America wants to be lead by not bright people apparently.
So there we have it.
The second is a typical Robert Costa piece, whereby he quotes anonymous GOP figures who are tearing what's left of their hair out, but can't figure out how to extricate themselves from Trump's grip on the party.
These are not bright people. Not in the White House, not on Capitol Hill. Luckily, a considerable part of America wants to be lead by not bright people apparently.
So there we have it.
Monday, October 28, 2019
Can Trump Hold His Base?
These poll numbers from the South should be concerning for Republicans. The states polled are Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Of those states, only Virginia voted for Clinton, and they don't like Trump too much, if last night's Nationals game is any indication. His job approval rating in those states is 52% approve, 47% disapprove, 1% who is Donald Trump?
You have to figure that Trump is killing it in Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi. He's likely floundering in Virginia. To give you some examples, Trump won 62% in Alabama, 60% in Arkansas, 59% in Louisiana, 58% in Mississippi, 55% in South Carolina and 60% in Tennessee. He only won 44% in Virginia.
That leaves Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. In Georgia, Trump only won 50.7% of the vote, though Clinton only carried 45% as Gary Johnson ran pretty strongly in Georgia. Still, Trump could be under 50% by now. In Florida, he only won 49%. Same in North Carolina. He won barely 52% in Texas. Texas.
The problem of course, is that Clinton only earned 47.8% in Florida, 46% in NC and 43% in Texas. Some of this is because of Hillary Clinton, some is because of the (D) next to her name. Still, Trump's approval numbers in the part of the country where he should be strongest suggest that there is a pretty decent opportunity to flip Georgia and North Carolina. I hold out no hope for a free and fair election in Florida.
Still, if Trump is struggling to keep his approval numbers above water in the South, what does that say about his ability to retain Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Wisconsin? What about Arizona?
As the news cycles continue to flay Trump's ego and his polls numbers slowly erode, he will likely rely more on his base instincts to rally the Trumpenproletariat. That means more of "Trump Unleashed."
It's going to be ugly as the world's most powerful narcissist decompensates on the world stage.
You have to figure that Trump is killing it in Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina and Mississippi. He's likely floundering in Virginia. To give you some examples, Trump won 62% in Alabama, 60% in Arkansas, 59% in Louisiana, 58% in Mississippi, 55% in South Carolina and 60% in Tennessee. He only won 44% in Virginia.
That leaves Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas. In Georgia, Trump only won 50.7% of the vote, though Clinton only carried 45% as Gary Johnson ran pretty strongly in Georgia. Still, Trump could be under 50% by now. In Florida, he only won 49%. Same in North Carolina. He won barely 52% in Texas. Texas.
The problem of course, is that Clinton only earned 47.8% in Florida, 46% in NC and 43% in Texas. Some of this is because of Hillary Clinton, some is because of the (D) next to her name. Still, Trump's approval numbers in the part of the country where he should be strongest suggest that there is a pretty decent opportunity to flip Georgia and North Carolina. I hold out no hope for a free and fair election in Florida.
Still, if Trump is struggling to keep his approval numbers above water in the South, what does that say about his ability to retain Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Wisconsin? What about Arizona?
As the news cycles continue to flay Trump's ego and his polls numbers slowly erode, he will likely rely more on his base instincts to rally the Trumpenproletariat. That means more of "Trump Unleashed."
It's going to be ugly as the world's most powerful narcissist decompensates on the world stage.
Sunday, October 27, 2019
Al Baghdadi
It is undeniably good news that Al Baghdadi is dead. Of course, Trump's press conference was the usual blend of narcissism, self-aggrandizement and blatant disregard for objective facts that we might expect.
It's striking, but unsurprising that he shared news of the raid with Russia and not Pelosi or Schiff. What's more interesting is how they found him and the timing. Why - with the Kurds in full retreat - was this the hour we were able to find him? Who gave us the information and most importantly, have they always known his location? Did the Kurds do it, trying to gain leverage in their bad situation? More ominously, did Russia, Syria or Turkey give Trump this information in order to boost his sagging fortunes within his own party in the wake of his disastrous policy blunders in Syria? It wouldn't surprise me if the Turks knew where he was all along and only shared it with us, because of the strain their ethnic cleansing has created and to help out Trump, who they know is much more friendly to Erdogan than any other American politician will be.
Worth looking in to.
It's striking, but unsurprising that he shared news of the raid with Russia and not Pelosi or Schiff. What's more interesting is how they found him and the timing. Why - with the Kurds in full retreat - was this the hour we were able to find him? Who gave us the information and most importantly, have they always known his location? Did the Kurds do it, trying to gain leverage in their bad situation? More ominously, did Russia, Syria or Turkey give Trump this information in order to boost his sagging fortunes within his own party in the wake of his disastrous policy blunders in Syria? It wouldn't surprise me if the Turks knew where he was all along and only shared it with us, because of the strain their ethnic cleansing has created and to help out Trump, who they know is much more friendly to Erdogan than any other American politician will be.
Worth looking in to.
Friday, October 25, 2019
Cassandra
In Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed with the gift of being able to tell the future but also having no one believe her prophecies.
This must be how Hillary Clinton feels every morning.
Obviously, Donald Trump has proven to be everything Clinton predicted he would be, but now we have an interesting example just this week. In some ways this is the perfect Hillary story.
Hillary Clinton went on a podcast and said that Republicans were grooming a Democrat for a third party run. The NY Times - who has never missed an opportunity to shit on the Clintons - WROTE THE WRONG THING and said that Clinton said the Russians were grooming this anonymous Democrat for the third party run. She instead was suggesting that Trump was a Russian asset, which he certainly appears to be.
Anyway, Tulsi Gabbard jumps up and screams, "How dare you call me a Russian asset!" Now, Clinton never mentioned Gabbard by name, but Gabbard knew she must have been talking about her, because she has a long history of affinity for Putin and others like Bashar al Assad.
Some Never Trump hangwringers like Tom Nichols who have a long history of hating Hillary blame her for the possibility that Gabbard might run third party. (Third party spoilers seem Trump's only hope of winning at this point.)
So, to recap: Hillary says that there's a Democrat being groomed by Republicans for a third party run, the Times screws up it's reporting, centrists blame Clinton for pointing out something that appears to be true.
Anyway, this morning Gabbard said she's not running for re-election. She's criticizing the impeachment proceedings on Fox with Fox News talking points.
She's a Republican. She has been a Republican. Hillary basically pointed out that Gabbard is an impostor Democrat, because that's exactly what Gabbard is and always has been. Clinton gets blamed for Gabbard doing the thing that she was always going to do.
I've worried that Elizabeth Warren will be treated the same way Hillary Clinton was, but there really is something especially pathological about the way Clinton has been treated over the past 30 years.
This must be how Hillary Clinton feels every morning.
Obviously, Donald Trump has proven to be everything Clinton predicted he would be, but now we have an interesting example just this week. In some ways this is the perfect Hillary story.
Hillary Clinton went on a podcast and said that Republicans were grooming a Democrat for a third party run. The NY Times - who has never missed an opportunity to shit on the Clintons - WROTE THE WRONG THING and said that Clinton said the Russians were grooming this anonymous Democrat for the third party run. She instead was suggesting that Trump was a Russian asset, which he certainly appears to be.
Anyway, Tulsi Gabbard jumps up and screams, "How dare you call me a Russian asset!" Now, Clinton never mentioned Gabbard by name, but Gabbard knew she must have been talking about her, because she has a long history of affinity for Putin and others like Bashar al Assad.
Some Never Trump hangwringers like Tom Nichols who have a long history of hating Hillary blame her for the possibility that Gabbard might run third party. (Third party spoilers seem Trump's only hope of winning at this point.)
So, to recap: Hillary says that there's a Democrat being groomed by Republicans for a third party run, the Times screws up it's reporting, centrists blame Clinton for pointing out something that appears to be true.
Anyway, this morning Gabbard said she's not running for re-election. She's criticizing the impeachment proceedings on Fox with Fox News talking points.
She's a Republican. She has been a Republican. Hillary basically pointed out that Gabbard is an impostor Democrat, because that's exactly what Gabbard is and always has been. Clinton gets blamed for Gabbard doing the thing that she was always going to do.
I've worried that Elizabeth Warren will be treated the same way Hillary Clinton was, but there really is something especially pathological about the way Clinton has been treated over the past 30 years.
Thursday, October 24, 2019
The Party of Fox
Yesterday's illegal and ill-considered storming of a secure facility in the Capitol achieved very little in any meaningful terms. The witness was finally allowed to testify, they beclowned themselves and there is a possibility of serious repercussions. At the very least, they should lose their security clearances.
Why did they do it? To play something on Fox about impeachment that wasn't directly damaging to the president. Trump knew about it. Cameras were there (including those on their phones, which - again - illegal) and it was entirely pitched to maximize the visuals. They clearly expected to be arrested so they could make the risible comparison of themselves to MLK.
Also yesterday, Almost A Real Boy Mark Zuckerberg was dragged back and forth across another House hearing room by Katie Porter and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Facebook's brazen stands on spreading lies and how they treat their workers. The two are clearly linked as the Right builds up an information ecosystem that is divorced from reality. Shep Smith is gone from Fox and whatever attempt they made to report real news is likely right behind him.
Trump's idiocy was on display last night when he promised to "build that wall" in Colorado. The crowd cheered. This is the level of rank stupidity and ignorance that we are dealing with, and it will get worse as the Right retreats into their informational safe spaces where Trump is a uniquely successful president in getting stuff done. They honestly believe his agenda has matched people like FDR or LBJ or even Reagan. Trump has passed a massive, regressive, unpopular tax cut and stuffed unqualified, reactionary judges on the bench. As far as "positive" accomplishments, that's pretty much it. But in the informational biome of Fox News, he's Caesar Augustus combined with Christ.
We know part of how this will end. Trump will leave office in disgrace, either by election or impeachment and removal (the latter is no longer impossible), at which point Fox and RW Wurlitzer will turn on him, then ignore him.
These people are high on their own bullshit and they are taking the country with them.
Why did they do it? To play something on Fox about impeachment that wasn't directly damaging to the president. Trump knew about it. Cameras were there (including those on their phones, which - again - illegal) and it was entirely pitched to maximize the visuals. They clearly expected to be arrested so they could make the risible comparison of themselves to MLK.
Also yesterday, Almost A Real Boy Mark Zuckerberg was dragged back and forth across another House hearing room by Katie Porter and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Facebook's brazen stands on spreading lies and how they treat their workers. The two are clearly linked as the Right builds up an information ecosystem that is divorced from reality. Shep Smith is gone from Fox and whatever attempt they made to report real news is likely right behind him.
Trump's idiocy was on display last night when he promised to "build that wall" in Colorado. The crowd cheered. This is the level of rank stupidity and ignorance that we are dealing with, and it will get worse as the Right retreats into their informational safe spaces where Trump is a uniquely successful president in getting stuff done. They honestly believe his agenda has matched people like FDR or LBJ or even Reagan. Trump has passed a massive, regressive, unpopular tax cut and stuffed unqualified, reactionary judges on the bench. As far as "positive" accomplishments, that's pretty much it. But in the informational biome of Fox News, he's Caesar Augustus combined with Christ.
We know part of how this will end. Trump will leave office in disgrace, either by election or impeachment and removal (the latter is no longer impossible), at which point Fox and RW Wurlitzer will turn on him, then ignore him.
These people are high on their own bullshit and they are taking the country with them.
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Good Germans
Republicans are nothing if not "good Germans." They know how to follow orders. When they get their ludicrous talking points, they know how to stick with them. Yesterday, Stupid Watergate found its John Dean in Ambassador Bill Taylor, who told us what we already know, but did so with a level of detail that makes a lot of Trump's prefered defenses crumble.
Since the President's conduct has become less and less defensible, Republicans are falling back on a bullshit process argument. Their argument seems to be...well, I think it is simply to repeat the word process over and over again for Fox News cultists. This will eventually leak into your Facebook feeds, so get ready for it.
Their argument, if we can dignify it with that term, is that Trump hasn't had a chance to defend himself, and that most of testimony is behind closed doors. Of course, what we are seeing now is effectively the Grand Jury phase, where prosecutors meet behind those closed doors and present evidence. Eventually, they will present this evidence to the House and the President can defend himself in the Senate. That's the process, and it's completely normal to the degree that anything is normal about this. In fact, unlike a Grand Jury, Trump has people inside the room seeing the evidence against him.
We also have a novel argument being advanced by Matt Whitaker, toilet salesman for people who large genitalia and former acting AG. His argument was that "abuse of power was not a crime." This goes back to the argument that there is no crime called "collusion" but rather conspiracy. Of course, while Trump HAS committed crimes in the Ukraine scandal (campaign finance crimes especially, emoluments more generally), abuse of power is not listed in the US criminal code. As counterargument: who cares? Abuse of power is EXACTLY what impeachment is for.
The target date for wrapping up the impeachment process was Thanksgiving. This was likely done to prevent the Senate trial from bleeding over into an election year. If the next month is as bad for the president and the GOP as this past month has been, I don't know how much longer they can keep moving the goalposts to protect him.
Since the President's conduct has become less and less defensible, Republicans are falling back on a bullshit process argument. Their argument seems to be...well, I think it is simply to repeat the word process over and over again for Fox News cultists. This will eventually leak into your Facebook feeds, so get ready for it.
Their argument, if we can dignify it with that term, is that Trump hasn't had a chance to defend himself, and that most of testimony is behind closed doors. Of course, what we are seeing now is effectively the Grand Jury phase, where prosecutors meet behind those closed doors and present evidence. Eventually, they will present this evidence to the House and the President can defend himself in the Senate. That's the process, and it's completely normal to the degree that anything is normal about this. In fact, unlike a Grand Jury, Trump has people inside the room seeing the evidence against him.
We also have a novel argument being advanced by Matt Whitaker, toilet salesman for people who large genitalia and former acting AG. His argument was that "abuse of power was not a crime." This goes back to the argument that there is no crime called "collusion" but rather conspiracy. Of course, while Trump HAS committed crimes in the Ukraine scandal (campaign finance crimes especially, emoluments more generally), abuse of power is not listed in the US criminal code. As counterargument: who cares? Abuse of power is EXACTLY what impeachment is for.
The target date for wrapping up the impeachment process was Thanksgiving. This was likely done to prevent the Senate trial from bleeding over into an election year. If the next month is as bad for the president and the GOP as this past month has been, I don't know how much longer they can keep moving the goalposts to protect him.
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
Corruption All The Way Down
This summary of the latest revelations about Giuliani's complete skeeviness when it comes to representing bad actors is pretty damning. Basically, Giuliani (and therefore Trump) were involved with all sorts of shady criminals coming out of the former Soviet Union.
The problem is that the deeper the corruption goes, the harder it is to follow. I consider myself a reasonably capable person, when it comes to understanding complicated stories, but after a certain point, the details bleed into each other and make it hard to understand exactly which oligarch extracted what favor from which Trump official. This complexity is the wedge that Fox News will be able to use to cast doubts on the charges and impugn the investigation.
That's why the "quid pro quo" is so important. It's simple. The tangled web of Trump's connections with Ukraine and Russia is complicated. It would be really nice if we could hear some tapes of Trump's conversations with some of these people.
The problem is that the deeper the corruption goes, the harder it is to follow. I consider myself a reasonably capable person, when it comes to understanding complicated stories, but after a certain point, the details bleed into each other and make it hard to understand exactly which oligarch extracted what favor from which Trump official. This complexity is the wedge that Fox News will be able to use to cast doubts on the charges and impugn the investigation.
That's why the "quid pro quo" is so important. It's simple. The tangled web of Trump's connections with Ukraine and Russia is complicated. It would be really nice if we could hear some tapes of Trump's conversations with some of these people.
Monday, October 21, 2019
Sunday, October 20, 2019
"You're Fired!"
While I am not supporting Biden at all in the primaries, I thought he had one of the better attack lines back in 2016. In talking about how Trump got famous through reality TV, Biden wondered how anyone could gleefully express the line "You're fired."
Trump has, sadly, governed very much as his reality TV character. The louche vulgarian has churned through staff at a truly astonishing rate. The only remaining members of his original Cabinet are two people too confused to know what's going on (Carson and DeVos), Mnuchin and Sonny Perdue. Dunno, maybe I'm missing someone who has held on, but I think we are the Nat Sec adviser #4, Chief of Staff #3 and God knows who else. Is there even a White House Press Secretary anymore?
Anyway, it turns out Trump was going to fire Mick Mulvaney who holds half the jobs in the White House. "Luckily" for Mulvaney, his role as a co-conspirator has saved his job.
These freaking people...
Trump has, sadly, governed very much as his reality TV character. The louche vulgarian has churned through staff at a truly astonishing rate. The only remaining members of his original Cabinet are two people too confused to know what's going on (Carson and DeVos), Mnuchin and Sonny Perdue. Dunno, maybe I'm missing someone who has held on, but I think we are the Nat Sec adviser #4, Chief of Staff #3 and God knows who else. Is there even a White House Press Secretary anymore?
Anyway, it turns out Trump was going to fire Mick Mulvaney who holds half the jobs in the White House. "Luckily" for Mulvaney, his role as a co-conspirator has saved his job.
These freaking people...
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