Motivated Reasoning And Falling In Line

 This is some important scholarship on how we form "our" political opinions. It starts out explaining why Republicans have seemingly changed some of their long held beliefs in the face of Trump. Another example they don't use is when Obama came out for marriage equality and approval exploded among (African American) Democrats. 

Basically, while we may have some innate beliefs or tendencies, when it comes to policy, we typically just assume what our party believes, once we understand that this is what our party believes. So the GOP can go from hating Russia in 2012 to loving Putin in 2016, just because the party elites say to do so.

This is why measuring Trump's approval rating amongst Republicans tells us nothing.  They love what he's doing because they are loyal Republicans not because they have made a rational decision about his "policies" whatever those may be. (There is at least some evidence that there a fewer Republicans now. Meanwhile, this poll has more Republicans than Independents in their sample, which strikes me as problematic, even though Trump is doing poorly in it.)

The good news is that if the GOP decides to move to the center, most of their voters will move to the center. However, the primary system does seem to expose that Republicans don't get their views from party elites, but rather partisan media outlets. The gatekeeper of GOP political opinion is not Mitch McConnell but Tucker Carlson.

It has been noted that the GOP actually has no ideas (and no party platform) beyond love of Dear Leader. The GOP exist primarily to "own the libs." Therefore Trump is the perfect representative of an idea-less party that exists simply to fight a culture war with liberals. 

It also stands to reason that once you identify with a party that there is very little policy outreach that will cause partisans to switch sides. We are seeing some of this, also, with Sandernistas whose political identity is wrapped up in hating Democrats almost as much or more than hating Republicans. Biden adopting aspects of Sanders' program is unimportant to the hardcore Rose Twitterati. 

Finally, it means that everyone fretting about the guys from the Lincoln Project coming into the Democratic tent and turning it into the party of George HW Bush have it backwards. They are far more likely to embrace climate change policies, progressive taxation and greater access to healthcare precisely because they are inside the tent.

Turns out the party DOES decide, just not in ways we anticipated.

The Portland Problem

 Portland has become a problem for both sides in the ongoing protests against police violence. On the left, Portland is unusually populated by anarchists and cosplay revolutionaries. Within the larger context of Oregon, there are a great many militia types nearby. Apparently, Oregon is an open-carry state.

Last night, Trump supporters drove in to Portland to confront BLM and general anarchistic protesters. This led to the death of a what appears to be a militia member. 

This is really, really bad. 

The point of the Trump counter protesters was to get a response, and they did. Now they have a martyr for their believers to rally around. If rightist militias could turn Kyle Rittenhaus into a hero, they can certainly elevate the dead militia member into the second coming of Nathan Hale. 

Expect more of these sort of provocative counter protests, and expect that the police will do nothing to stem this violence and separate the two groups. Dead people - on either side - are fine with extremists. (For the record, I don't consider most BLM protesters extremists, but there are extremists from various anarchist groups intermingled with them.) It only takes one or two Gustavo Princip wannabes to unleash a wave of violence.

We have a president whose credibility to bring peace and unify the country is non-existent. In fact, he probably welcomes the violence in Kenosha and Portland, because his entire appeal is fear-based. Violence on any side could rally some soft support to him.  Alternatively, he's the president during two crises that he can't control - spiraling street violence and a run-away pandemic. 

Right now, Trump is losing. Aggregates suggest he's up by about 8%. That is too big a lead for Trump to cheat his way to victory. Trump needs something to change the direction of the race. Street violence committed by BLM-adjacent anarchists is just about the only thing that might save his race for president. Recall that Hitler burned down the Reichstag, blamed it on Communists and then seized power. That's Trump's playbook. 

Biden's Basement Strategy is a good one, but there needs to be someone (Harris and Sanders?) who can go to Portland or Kenosha and calm things down. If Biden and/or Democrats can bring some calm to these conflagrations, then they can demonstrate that "Biden's America" will be a more peaceful place.

Otherwise, this could just be the beginning of violence ripping this country apart.

Take A Deep Breath and Wait

 There are a host of op-eds over at WaPo and elsewhere saying that Trump's convention was dishonest, illegal and effective. Ruth Marcus, a reliable weathervane, makes that case explicitly. 

As of now, pollsters will be out there making calls and we should expect convention bounce. Or maybe not. There are a number of fallacies built in to the idea that the convention is a game changer.

The first is that there are such things as "game changers." Some pundits talk about fundamentals as being the critical factor. But more than economic data the "right direction/wrong direction" question is critical, as is job approval for an incumbent. Those numbers stay steady. Trump's approval rating has been amazingly stable to between 38-42%. If those numbers don't move, it's unlikely he can get close enough to steal the election.

The second is that anyone was watching the RNC beyond those who love Trump and those that were hate-watching. Ratings were lower than the DNC in large part because we know who Trump is. There was no need to marinate in the lies and focused hatred on display.

For instance, USC/Dornsife has been flooding the zone with polls that show Biden up in the 12-16% range, with Biden easily over 50% in the 53-55% range. If that numbers MOVES it's more important than what the final result is.

Biden's aggregate lead is around 9-10%. If he's above 4% on election day, that's a strong enough margin to win PA, MI, WI and possibly AZ. If he's above 8%, NC, IA, GA, FL and possibly TX are in play.

So keep an eye on the movement of polls. But also keep in mind that any bounce dissipates.

Republicans And The "Conservative" Movement

 It makes me a bit itchy when we already start writing the post-mortems for the post-Trump GOP before the election makes that a reality. But Chait lays out the two paths for the GOP going forward from an election that sees them lose Texas and Georgia. As Chait notes, the "Conservative" movement is in fact a reactionary, populist insurgency that exists off "Cleek's Law," namely "modern conservatism believe in the opposite of whatever liberals believe; it is updated every 15 minutes." There have been more than a few Republicans who have signed on to Trump's manifest unfitness for office precisely because of how much his treasonous, incompetent corruption angers liberals.

If America had Eisenhower's Republican Party (or David Cameron's Conservative Party), it would be a good thing. Democrats would likely inch further to the left - which is fine - and elections would no longer be existential crises, but rather a competition over who could best provide reasonable public goods at reasonable expense. It's worth noting, however, that Eisenhower only came to be after 20 years of complete Democratic control of the national government, and Nixon's relative domestic moderation was a product of complete Democratic control of Congress. Nixon simply would not have been elected if not for Vietnam and racist backlash against the Civil Rights movement.

The country has been trending away from GOP policies since the 1990s. Polling on the issues is clear on this. The GOP still exists as a major party because of racial and cultural resentment and because of the unique structure of the Senate and the Electoral College that gives undue weight to white, rural America. If a Biden Administration and Democratic Senate can pass truly meaningful election reforms, their path to power could be pretty narrow. I think it will take another long exodus in the desert before the GOP ever becomes a party that can be trusted with power again.

Cult Of Personality

 The Republican Party will not have a platform beyond "We support Donald Trump." Ideally - and increasingly, I doubt this ideal - voters make informed decisions on voting based on their understanding of how a candidate's agenda reflects their own needs and values.  Right? That's how democracy should work. Instead, the modern GOP has become an apparatus for Dear Leader. While there are a growing numbers of FORMER GOP figures who are willing to go on record and endorse Biden (or at least refuse to endorse Trump) there is no one who wants to have a future in GOP politics who will create any daylight between themselves and Hair Furor.

A majority of Republicans think Covid has been handled well. A supermajority of Republicans think the country is better off now than four years ago. The GOP Convention will be a parade of sycophants and family members better representing an election in some distant despotic realm. It's unbelievable, except it's also the end point of Republican politics of the past 50 years.

War On The Post Office

 What's remarkable about the war on the Postal Service is how it's kind of the apotheosis of Trumpism.

- It treats government services as something that must benefit Trump or it shouldn't exist.
- It's unconstitutional, as the post office is in the Constitution.
- It is built on naked partisanship over public service.
- It is a continuation of the Republican war on public goods.
- It is buttressed by lies, lies and then some more lies.

Today, the odious shitstain Trump put in charge of the Postal Service has said he didn't do the things he definitely did. What's amazing is the claim that they took out sorting machines to "save money."  How does that work? Do machines at the post office have salaries? Benefits? In what possible world does disconnecting a machine you already bought save money?

I don't think the war on voting will necessarily work. The screwed up by doing it so early and so publicly. States and individuals can adapt.

Instead, we will get Pure Trumpism. Needless immiseration for no real partisan gain. Social Security checks will be late. Mail order medications won't arrive on time. Items ordered from retailers won't arrive when needed. And it won't throw the election to Trump.

The Trump Crime Family

 Looking at the slate of speakers for this week's Republican National Convention and while it appears to be a moving target (I think Steve Bannon's slot was removed) it consists mostly of Trump family members. There are rumors of Trump speaking every night, which should be....fun? Melania will be giving Michelle Obama's speech again, so you could watch that. Junior, Eric, somehow Tiffany, Ivanka naturally, I would guess Kushner. Some of the other Trump spouses culled from Fox News, Lara Trump and Kimberly Guilfoyle will likely speak. Among elected Republicans, we will Pence, of course. Mitch McConnell might submit some recorded remarks, Nikki Haley is positioning herself for 2024 and Joni Ernst will self-immolate on the Trump Pyre. Kevin McCarthy, Tim Scott...The list is...something.

One family member who won't appear is obviously Mary Trump, but I think we can now count out Trump's sister, whom Mary Trump secretly recorded telling us - again - all the stuff we already know about Trump. It was his sister who levelled the charge that Trump had someone take the SAT for him. 

It's depressing how many people close to Trump keep telling us what an awful person he is, yet 35% of Americans will vote for him no matter what. No matter the bounties on US troops, the sabotage of Ben Franklin's post office, the corruption, the indifference to Covid deaths, the ignorance...it's staggering.

Facile Comparisons

 I was just skimming the day's news when the Times suggested that 1988 - when Bush 41 made a huge comeback against a large Dukakis lead - was a cautionary tale for Biden and a map for Trump. Reluctantly, I clicked through. That 1988 race was especially brutal - it was the Willie Horton and Dukakis-in-a-tank election. Dukakis was a bland technocrat with a largely unexamined record. Bush was an experienced politician with a very smart and ruthless team working for him. The "Wrong Track" number was 46%, as opposed to the 58% it is now. Dukakis let Bush define him and Bush won in a romp.

Almost none of the same dynamics are at play today. Democrats DID learn from 1988 to not allow your opponent to define you. Biden has a strong established identity that Dukakis didn't have. The economy was not the worst it had been since 1933. There was not an out of control pandemic. Bush was disciplined and experienced.

It's also worth noting the demographic shifts that have occured since 1988. America is a more diverse country. What Trump did was leverage that into a minority victory where his opponent won 3,000,000 more votes than he did. Trump's erratic, hateful politics got crushed in the suburbs in 2018, a potent harbinger of discontent among college educated whites. Since Trump allowed the pandemic to rampage across the country, Biden now has a powerful lead among elderly voters - a consistent and reliable voting bloc. 

When you unpack - for instance - this YouGov poll, Trump leads Biden by one point among HS grads; Biden leads by 11 points among "some college," 14 points among college grads and 22 points with post grad degrees. Biden wins among people earning less than 50K 51-40, 50-100K 52-39 and 100K or more 51-43. That middle number is the suburbs and he fares worst there. The YouGov post had Trump winning people aged 65+ 54-41, but many other polls have Biden winning that group. Biden is over 50% with every other age group and over 60% with 18-29 year olds. Biden leads in the Northeast 58-31 and the West 56-36, which doesn't mean much. But he wins the Midwest 47-43 and in only trailing in the South 45-46. 

Those are crushingly bad numbers.

In 1988, Reagan was still popular (bafflingly so, due to corruption, a market crash and dementia) and Bush was considered an experienced moderate Republican. In 2020, Trump is incredibly unpopular, his base is a shrinking demographic group, the economy sucks and the pandemic is the top concern on many voters minds. There are going to be dead school children this fall. 

Trump's innate awfulness as a human being will be on display every day. As Obama said, he cannot grow into this job. He will mock Biden's stutter. He comes closer and closer every day to saying the "N-word" on a hot mic. 

But papers like the Times are desperate for a horse race. Trump isn't wrong when he says that his defeat in November would be terrible for CNN's ratings. Certainly "anything can happen," but given the profound and deep hatred for Trump in large voting segments of the population, it seems unlikely that the margins will move greatly in his direction. Still, the Times and other outlets will keep flogging bad historical analogies to keep you hooked. The trauma of 2016 still resonates with people and should keep people anxiously looking at Rasmussen polls and freaking out (don't).

I suppose it is possible that Covid will disappear like a "miracle" to quote Mike Pence. I suppose it is possible that the economy will roar back to life. Much more likely is that the Senate's refusal to extend more aid to the unemployed and struggling small businesses will mean an economic collapse this fall. The sort that puts Kansas into play for Biden.

Don't fall for panic. Work, organize, register, vote.

High On Their Own Supply

I'm not a fan of "bothsides" journalism, but there is a common criticism of the Right and Left that makes sense. By the "Left" I mean those who stand outside the Democratic Party from the left and fling shit at it for not adopting their preferred policies, even if those policies are ineffectual and political suicide. By the "Right" I basically mean the Republican Party, which can't really be said to have a moderate wing outside of a few East Coast governors.

Both groups are victims of epistemological closure. That is to say they speak to themselves and only themselves. Rose Twitter and Fox News creates an echo chamber that drowns out evidence and reason. On Rose Twitter, it's Rose McGowan saying the Democratic party - the party of Social Security, the minimum wage, the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, Medicare, Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, the Violence Against Women Act, the Lily Ledbetter Act and countless other bills - has never done anything for the poor, women or people of color.  Yeah. OK.

A few cranks on the Left are no match for the vast apparatus of Fox and OANN on the Right. Trump astoundingly still gets roughly 39-44% job approval ratings.  This is an inconceivable number based on real world evidence. But 35% of Americans don't live in a world of real world evidence. They live in a world where America's Covid-19 response is a good one. They live in a world where Trump has made America more respected in the world. They live in a world where Trump is looking out for them. They live in a world where Trump is "draining the swamp."  All of these things are demonstrably false, but they simply can't penetrate the bone-deep and willful ignorance of his supporters.

This recently manifested itself in Trump's (and not so coincidentally, Rose Twitter's) decision to paint Joe Biden as suffering from dementia. In these closed bubbles, Biden's speech impediment is signs of cognitive decline. So, when Biden comes out and delivers a knock-out speech they are left having to retreat further into their cognitive bubble. 

Representative government is both terrible and better than any other form of government. It relies on the application of reason to solve problems for the common good. One party has lost all touch with reality.

Hopefully, November brings them a massive reality check.

Anyone NOT Indicted?

News that Steve Bannon was arrested for fraud related to building the wall is really a perfect exemplar of life in Trumpistan. You have someone involved with Trump's 2016 campaign (like Manafort, Page, Flynn, Papadopolous, Gates and others) grifting off of xenophobia and defrauding a non-profit (like Trump charities. 

Meanwhile, Trump's financial records have - once again - been ruled admissible to Manhattan's DA over, you guessed it, fraud. It's still unlikely that these records will be released before the election and less likely still that it will be leaked or lead to indictments before the first week of November. It's also unlikely that any of this will make a damned bit of difference for the 40% of Americans who seem to support Trump no matter what.

It's fascinating looking at the dynamics in both parties. Biden is trying to assemble a coalition that stretches from John Kasich and Charlie Dent to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren. That leads to fractious and bullshit arguments over how much speaking time AOC gets. Or whether Biden's aggressive climate plan is aggressive enough. Meanwhile, over in Republican land they are completely committed to this criminal conman and whatever bullshit comes out of his puckered piehole. 

The Senate Intelligence Committee report on the Russian investigation clearly shows that there was coordination between Trump's campaign and Russia. And these same GOP Senators who knew the information in their own report voted NOT to call witness in the impeachment trial last January. 

Back in 2016, it was said that not all Trump voters were racists, but for every Trump voter, racism was not a dealbreaker. In 2020, we can add to that (because the racism is still self-evident) that not every Trump voter is a criminal, but every Trump voter is okay with criminality in the highest office in the land.

Jesus, take the loss and look towards 2024.

How Does Politics Work?

When I read criticisms of Colin Powell endorsing Joe Biden, I'm left to wonder: Am I missing something?

The case Jon Chait makes in support of pushing Powell's endorsement seems so obviously clear to me that I can't help but wonder if the arguments that Ezekiel Kweku make in the same piece contain some hidden understanding that has eluded me.

Partisans in both parties are pretty close to locked in, but there is an obvious sub-set of Republicans who are willing to break with Trump. In 2018, Democrats ran a massive (but narrow in some ways) wave to control the House. That wave passed through the suburbs and college educated whites. Trump's explicit appeal to white ethnonationalism alienated a group of voters who have otherwise tilted towards the GOP. 

The idea is to get a lot more votes than Trump in November. Trump haters are highly motivated and are arguably more important than Biden lovers. I think the convention seems to be working in introducing Biden to those low information voters who are only dimly aware of him, despite his long presence in American politics. As Chait notes, bipartisanship is popular. To non-ideological voters who don't follow politics through a lens, if both sides agree on a thing, it must be good.

Biden looks to have about an eight to ten point lead on Trump. That's historically bad for an incumbent. However, there are still a great many voters who have not made up their mind yet. Perhaps they simply don't vote, but they are - by definition - persuadable. Biden is trying to persuade them.  Why is that so hard to understand?

Theater Criticism

 The Post gave reviews of Night One of the Democratic Convention to their theater critic. I guess that makes sense. There was a fair amount of criticism from the usual Twitterati about the presence of so many Republicans on Night One, but there is some value to those speakers to reach normal people who don't follow politics and don't have a real ideology. If something is bipartisan, a certain segment of the population thinks that it must be good. Biden will have that imprimatur, Trump will not.

Democrats will spend tonight presumably talking about policy. Wednesday is Harris. Thursday is Biden.

Republicans will spend this week and next in a spittle-flecked rage.

One of the many ways that 2016 was unique was that the angry, vengeful candidate won. Usually optimistic and upbeat wins. "A city on a hill," "A thousand points of light," "I still believe in a place called Hope," "compassionate conservatism," "the audacity of hope." Trump ran on American Carnage and only "won" because of a uniquely unpopular Democrat with WWC voters, Russian interference and a poorly timed announcement from James Comey. He's going to run on carnage again. I don't think it will work.

Jesus Christ, These People...

 Take the time to read this expose on Trump's campaign shake-up.  Basically, because of an assist from Russia, James Comey, ingrained racism and the quirks of the electoral college, Trump won a fluky election in 2016. He thinks he can do it again, by hiring a bunch of maroons to do the same fly-by-night bullshit they did last time.

Expect More Of This

Labor Day is right around the corner, which means the campaign "really" begins. Of course, in a polarized, crisis-filled atmosphere, the campaign has never stopped or lulled. The broad contours seem to be falling into place. As the Democratic "Convention" begins its virtual pep rally, one thing Biden is doing is making a conscious efforts to convert Republicans to Biden voters. The Never Trump GOP will continue to drip things like this, a former Republican DHS official soberly testifying that Trump is a menace to national security. Republicans who had passed on from their active political careers are also lining up to endorse Biden. 

For a certain segment of Leftist Twitter, this represents a betrayal, because - I guess - when someone votes for you, you have to do everything they say. Biden - as a mature, full grown politician - understands something that Rose Twitter does not: you have to win more votes than your opponent. This simple fact has eluded the Nina Turner's of the world, as they have plunged headlong off a cliff of their own alienating style. Since we can expect widespread voter suppression efforts from the GOP in October and November, beyond what they are doing with the post office, it's imperative to run up big margins in the suburbs. 

Meanwhile, we can expect Trump to double down in the racism and sexism. It's all he really knows at this point. 

There was a CNN poll that freaked everyone out that had Biden up 4 points (and Trump somehow winning 36% of the support of people of color...yeah, no). Meanwhile, ABC/WaPo, CBS/YouGov and NBC/WSJ all have Biden up 9-10 points. That feels much closer to where we are. Most of those polls have Biden from 50-54% and Trump at 41-44%. The 7-9% undecided (how is that possible but OK) are exactly the sort of people who can be reached by former GOP pols and officials coming out for Biden. Assuming many of those won't vote, if Biden can peel away half of them, he can win GA, TX and KS, much less FL and AZ.

Oh, Yeah. That.

 For years, when I teach globalization, we spend a day discussing whether globalization is an inevitable, one-way street. The textbook mentions some things that can reverse globalization, but I always added "pandemic" to that list, since great plagues have created insular politics in the past. I can't have been alone in that observation. A true pandemic was inevitable. This moment was coming; scientists knew about it; Democrats prepared for it; Republicans downplayed it (and destroyed the playbook left to them).

Anyways, global warming is still the greatest threat we face.