Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

If You're Curious, You Should Ask



I've been reading a lot of newspaper and online articles about the budget battles and how Obama and the Democrats have to shift to cutting mode because "of the public's increasing concern about the debt".

Now, the debt is a real issue.  But the debt exists for a reason.  Here are the reasons:


Here's another chart, showing what would happen to the deficit (as opposed to the debt) if we do NOTHING - including let the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone.


Well, looky-there!

So, dealing with the deficit/debt is not a difficult accounting problem, it's just a question of raising taxes for the most part.  Which won't happen until we get Democrats back in control of Congress.

But I want to go back and look at the idea that the "public" is upset and clamoring for action on the debt.

CBS actually, you know, asked people what was the most important issue facing the country today.

Economy/Jobs - 51%
Other - 27%
Deficit/Debt - 7%
Health Care - 5%
Hunh?  What was the question? - 4%
Education 3%
Wars 3%

I guess, in the spirit of Jon Kyl, they rounded to the nearest 50.

Bloomberg found more concern about the debt

Unemployment - 43%
Deficit/Debt - 29%
Health Care - 12%
Wars - 7%
Immigration - 3%
Other 4%
Honey, there's someone on the phone asking questions - 2%

Still, not seeing close to a majority or even a plurality obsessing about the debt.

Let's assume that 29% of the American people are really, really concerned about the budget situation.  That's their number one concern.  More than jobs or war or health care or swarthy brown people sneaking into the country.

Let's cross reference that number (29% give or take) with an NBC poll asking people their opinion on the Tea Party:

Very Positive - 13%
Somewhat Positive - 16%
Neutral - 20%
Somewhat Negative - 14%
Very Negative - 30%
Tea?  I like coffee - 7%

Hunh!  Look at that.  People who have a net favorable view of the Tea Party make up... 29% of the population.  What are the odds?

When asked if you are a member of the Tea Party, we got these responses:

Yes - 25%
Hell, No - 67%
Depends - 3%
I said I like coffee, damnit - 5%

Yes and depends.... 28%.

So, in the world of our political media, we can see the indelible impact of this minority movement known as Teatards Teahadists Teabaggers the Tea Party.

They make up less than a third of the population.  They are old, white and conservative.

And their agenda has become the nation's agenda.  Not because they enjoy majority support, but because they enjoy a majority within the majority of the House of Representatives.

It sounds like Obama is going to come out and make a truly "serious" speech about raising revenues, cutting defense spending and reining in health care costs.

But the caterwauling from the Tea Party Grand Old Party will be treated with equal seriousness and we will get Ryan talking about how taxes will kill job growth in the absence of evidence that makes it true.  Speaker Agent Orange will announce it DOA.

My question is: will the news media that fell all over themselves fawning over Paul Ryan be as starry eyed at an ACTUAL plan to end the deficit?

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