Well, How About That?

I always thought the Ames Straw Poll was an irrelevant exercise.  That's what the Serious People say.

Then Nate Silver tells us that one of the people who finishes first or second in Ames will win Iowa in February.  If true, I'm going with Bachmann over Paul.  The 4000+ votes for Paul are probably not that far off from the 4000 he'll receive in February.  The Paultards are devoted but few.  I made the mistake in 2008 of mistaking their energy for real numbers.  Not going there again.

And if THAT wasn't enough, apparently failing at Ames is enough to push some candidates out of the race.  Been nice knowing you, Tim Pawlenty.

By all accounts we are headed to a three way race with Bachmann winning Iowa, Romney winning New Hamster and Perry winning South Carolina.

I've said all along that the real race is to be the Anti-Romney.  Right now, Bachmann is that person.  But the spotlight is now going to shine brighter on her and Perry from now on.  She's been very disciplined recently, but you still have weird moments like her aides and husband shoving and elbowing reporters.

Normally, Romney is the nominee and you can ignore the Fried Butter eating yokels in Ames.  But watch Perry's fundraising numbers.  If the Texas bundlers and whales come in hard for him, Romney's ONLY advantage - cash - is gone.

The good news out of all this: so far Newt, Cain and Santorum are still in!