Blog Credo

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

H.L. Mencken

Monday, October 24, 2016

Never Look At Just One Poll, But...

The ABC poll has some internals that Josh Marshall has flagged - rightly - as being significant.  The poll shows a collapse in voting enthusiasm among Republicans.  Here's the key finding:

The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

That is what creates a wave election.

Martin Longman notes that when the race is effectively over by 9PM EST, western Republicans will still be trying to get their voters to the polls.  This only combines with Trump's problems with Latino voters.

Maybe Clinton really is only up about 6 points.  I'm guessing it's more.  Because math.

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