Motivated Reasoning And Falling In Line

 This is some important scholarship on how we form "our" political opinions. It starts out explaining why Republicans have seemingly changed some of their long held beliefs in the face of Trump. Another example they don't use is when Obama came out for marriage equality and approval exploded among (African American) Democrats. 

Basically, while we may have some innate beliefs or tendencies, when it comes to policy, we typically just assume what our party believes, once we understand that this is what our party believes. So the GOP can go from hating Russia in 2012 to loving Putin in 2016, just because the party elites say to do so.

This is why measuring Trump's approval rating amongst Republicans tells us nothing.  They love what he's doing because they are loyal Republicans not because they have made a rational decision about his "policies" whatever those may be. (There is at least some evidence that there a fewer Republicans now. Meanwhile, this poll has more Republicans than Independents in their sample, which strikes me as problematic, even though Trump is doing poorly in it.)

The good news is that if the GOP decides to move to the center, most of their voters will move to the center. However, the primary system does seem to expose that Republicans don't get their views from party elites, but rather partisan media outlets. The gatekeeper of GOP political opinion is not Mitch McConnell but Tucker Carlson.

It has been noted that the GOP actually has no ideas (and no party platform) beyond love of Dear Leader. The GOP exist primarily to "own the libs." Therefore Trump is the perfect representative of an idea-less party that exists simply to fight a culture war with liberals. 

It also stands to reason that once you identify with a party that there is very little policy outreach that will cause partisans to switch sides. We are seeing some of this, also, with Sandernistas whose political identity is wrapped up in hating Democrats almost as much or more than hating Republicans. Biden adopting aspects of Sanders' program is unimportant to the hardcore Rose Twitterati. 

Finally, it means that everyone fretting about the guys from the Lincoln Project coming into the Democratic tent and turning it into the party of George HW Bush have it backwards. They are far more likely to embrace climate change policies, progressive taxation and greater access to healthcare precisely because they are inside the tent.

Turns out the party DOES decide, just not in ways we anticipated.

The Portland Problem

 Portland has become a problem for both sides in the ongoing protests against police violence. On the left, Portland is unusually populated by anarchists and cosplay revolutionaries. Within the larger context of Oregon, there are a great many militia types nearby. Apparently, Oregon is an open-carry state.

Last night, Trump supporters drove in to Portland to confront BLM and general anarchistic protesters. This led to the death of a what appears to be a militia member. 

This is really, really bad. 

The point of the Trump counter protesters was to get a response, and they did. Now they have a martyr for their believers to rally around. If rightist militias could turn Kyle Rittenhaus into a hero, they can certainly elevate the dead militia member into the second coming of Nathan Hale. 

Expect more of these sort of provocative counter protests, and expect that the police will do nothing to stem this violence and separate the two groups. Dead people - on either side - are fine with extremists. (For the record, I don't consider most BLM protesters extremists, but there are extremists from various anarchist groups intermingled with them.) It only takes one or two Gustavo Princip wannabes to unleash a wave of violence.

We have a president whose credibility to bring peace and unify the country is non-existent. In fact, he probably welcomes the violence in Kenosha and Portland, because his entire appeal is fear-based. Violence on any side could rally some soft support to him.  Alternatively, he's the president during two crises that he can't control - spiraling street violence and a run-away pandemic. 

Right now, Trump is losing. Aggregates suggest he's up by about 8%. That is too big a lead for Trump to cheat his way to victory. Trump needs something to change the direction of the race. Street violence committed by BLM-adjacent anarchists is just about the only thing that might save his race for president. Recall that Hitler burned down the Reichstag, blamed it on Communists and then seized power. That's Trump's playbook. 

Biden's Basement Strategy is a good one, but there needs to be someone (Harris and Sanders?) who can go to Portland or Kenosha and calm things down. If Biden and/or Democrats can bring some calm to these conflagrations, then they can demonstrate that "Biden's America" will be a more peaceful place.

Otherwise, this could just be the beginning of violence ripping this country apart.

Take A Deep Breath and Wait

 There are a host of op-eds over at WaPo and elsewhere saying that Trump's convention was dishonest, illegal and effective. Ruth Marcus, a reliable weathervane, makes that case explicitly. 

As of now, pollsters will be out there making calls and we should expect convention bounce. Or maybe not. There are a number of fallacies built in to the idea that the convention is a game changer.

The first is that there are such things as "game changers." Some pundits talk about fundamentals as being the critical factor. But more than economic data the "right direction/wrong direction" question is critical, as is job approval for an incumbent. Those numbers stay steady. Trump's approval rating has been amazingly stable to between 38-42%. If those numbers don't move, it's unlikely he can get close enough to steal the election.

The second is that anyone was watching the RNC beyond those who love Trump and those that were hate-watching. Ratings were lower than the DNC in large part because we know who Trump is. There was no need to marinate in the lies and focused hatred on display.

For instance, USC/Dornsife has been flooding the zone with polls that show Biden up in the 12-16% range, with Biden easily over 50% in the 53-55% range. If that numbers MOVES it's more important than what the final result is.

Biden's aggregate lead is around 9-10%. If he's above 4% on election day, that's a strong enough margin to win PA, MI, WI and possibly AZ. If he's above 8%, NC, IA, GA, FL and possibly TX are in play.

So keep an eye on the movement of polls. But also keep in mind that any bounce dissipates.

Republicans And The "Conservative" Movement

 It makes me a bit itchy when we already start writing the post-mortems for the post-Trump GOP before the election makes that a reality. But Chait lays out the two paths for the GOP going forward from an election that sees them lose Texas and Georgia. As Chait notes, the "Conservative" movement is in fact a reactionary, populist insurgency that exists off "Cleek's Law," namely "modern conservatism believe in the opposite of whatever liberals believe; it is updated every 15 minutes." There have been more than a few Republicans who have signed on to Trump's manifest unfitness for office precisely because of how much his treasonous, incompetent corruption angers liberals.

If America had Eisenhower's Republican Party (or David Cameron's Conservative Party), it would be a good thing. Democrats would likely inch further to the left - which is fine - and elections would no longer be existential crises, but rather a competition over who could best provide reasonable public goods at reasonable expense. It's worth noting, however, that Eisenhower only came to be after 20 years of complete Democratic control of the national government, and Nixon's relative domestic moderation was a product of complete Democratic control of Congress. Nixon simply would not have been elected if not for Vietnam and racist backlash against the Civil Rights movement.

The country has been trending away from GOP policies since the 1990s. Polling on the issues is clear on this. The GOP still exists as a major party because of racial and cultural resentment and because of the unique structure of the Senate and the Electoral College that gives undue weight to white, rural America. If a Biden Administration and Democratic Senate can pass truly meaningful election reforms, their path to power could be pretty narrow. I think it will take another long exodus in the desert before the GOP ever becomes a party that can be trusted with power again.

Cult Of Personality

 The Republican Party will not have a platform beyond "We support Donald Trump." Ideally - and increasingly, I doubt this ideal - voters make informed decisions on voting based on their understanding of how a candidate's agenda reflects their own needs and values.  Right? That's how democracy should work. Instead, the modern GOP has become an apparatus for Dear Leader. While there are a growing numbers of FORMER GOP figures who are willing to go on record and endorse Biden (or at least refuse to endorse Trump) there is no one who wants to have a future in GOP politics who will create any daylight between themselves and Hair Furor.

A majority of Republicans think Covid has been handled well. A supermajority of Republicans think the country is better off now than four years ago. The GOP Convention will be a parade of sycophants and family members better representing an election in some distant despotic realm. It's unbelievable, except it's also the end point of Republican politics of the past 50 years.

War On The Post Office

 What's remarkable about the war on the Postal Service is how it's kind of the apotheosis of Trumpism.

- It treats government services as something that must benefit Trump or it shouldn't exist.
- It's unconstitutional, as the post office is in the Constitution.
- It is built on naked partisanship over public service.
- It is a continuation of the Republican war on public goods.
- It is buttressed by lies, lies and then some more lies.

Today, the odious shitstain Trump put in charge of the Postal Service has said he didn't do the things he definitely did. What's amazing is the claim that they took out sorting machines to "save money."  How does that work? Do machines at the post office have salaries? Benefits? In what possible world does disconnecting a machine you already bought save money?

I don't think the war on voting will necessarily work. The screwed up by doing it so early and so publicly. States and individuals can adapt.

Instead, we will get Pure Trumpism. Needless immiseration for no real partisan gain. Social Security checks will be late. Mail order medications won't arrive on time. Items ordered from retailers won't arrive when needed. And it won't throw the election to Trump.

The Trump Crime Family

 Looking at the slate of speakers for this week's Republican National Convention and while it appears to be a moving target (I think Steve Bannon's slot was removed) it consists mostly of Trump family members. There are rumors of Trump speaking every night, which should be....fun? Melania will be giving Michelle Obama's speech again, so you could watch that. Junior, Eric, somehow Tiffany, Ivanka naturally, I would guess Kushner. Some of the other Trump spouses culled from Fox News, Lara Trump and Kimberly Guilfoyle will likely speak. Among elected Republicans, we will Pence, of course. Mitch McConnell might submit some recorded remarks, Nikki Haley is positioning herself for 2024 and Joni Ernst will self-immolate on the Trump Pyre. Kevin McCarthy, Tim Scott...The list is...something.

One family member who won't appear is obviously Mary Trump, but I think we can now count out Trump's sister, whom Mary Trump secretly recorded telling us - again - all the stuff we already know about Trump. It was his sister who levelled the charge that Trump had someone take the SAT for him. 

It's depressing how many people close to Trump keep telling us what an awful person he is, yet 35% of Americans will vote for him no matter what. No matter the bounties on US troops, the sabotage of Ben Franklin's post office, the corruption, the indifference to Covid deaths, the ignorance...it's staggering.

Facile Comparisons

 I was just skimming the day's news when the Times suggested that 1988 - when Bush 41 made a huge comeback against a large Dukakis lead - was a cautionary tale for Biden and a map for Trump. Reluctantly, I clicked through. That 1988 race was especially brutal - it was the Willie Horton and Dukakis-in-a-tank election. Dukakis was a bland technocrat with a largely unexamined record. Bush was an experienced politician with a very smart and ruthless team working for him. The "Wrong Track" number was 46%, as opposed to the 58% it is now. Dukakis let Bush define him and Bush won in a romp.

Almost none of the same dynamics are at play today. Democrats DID learn from 1988 to not allow your opponent to define you. Biden has a strong established identity that Dukakis didn't have. The economy was not the worst it had been since 1933. There was not an out of control pandemic. Bush was disciplined and experienced.

It's also worth noting the demographic shifts that have occured since 1988. America is a more diverse country. What Trump did was leverage that into a minority victory where his opponent won 3,000,000 more votes than he did. Trump's erratic, hateful politics got crushed in the suburbs in 2018, a potent harbinger of discontent among college educated whites. Since Trump allowed the pandemic to rampage across the country, Biden now has a powerful lead among elderly voters - a consistent and reliable voting bloc. 

When you unpack - for instance - this YouGov poll, Trump leads Biden by one point among HS grads; Biden leads by 11 points among "some college," 14 points among college grads and 22 points with post grad degrees. Biden wins among people earning less than 50K 51-40, 50-100K 52-39 and 100K or more 51-43. That middle number is the suburbs and he fares worst there. The YouGov post had Trump winning people aged 65+ 54-41, but many other polls have Biden winning that group. Biden is over 50% with every other age group and over 60% with 18-29 year olds. Biden leads in the Northeast 58-31 and the West 56-36, which doesn't mean much. But he wins the Midwest 47-43 and in only trailing in the South 45-46. 

Those are crushingly bad numbers.

In 1988, Reagan was still popular (bafflingly so, due to corruption, a market crash and dementia) and Bush was considered an experienced moderate Republican. In 2020, Trump is incredibly unpopular, his base is a shrinking demographic group, the economy sucks and the pandemic is the top concern on many voters minds. There are going to be dead school children this fall. 

Trump's innate awfulness as a human being will be on display every day. As Obama said, he cannot grow into this job. He will mock Biden's stutter. He comes closer and closer every day to saying the "N-word" on a hot mic. 

But papers like the Times are desperate for a horse race. Trump isn't wrong when he says that his defeat in November would be terrible for CNN's ratings. Certainly "anything can happen," but given the profound and deep hatred for Trump in large voting segments of the population, it seems unlikely that the margins will move greatly in his direction. Still, the Times and other outlets will keep flogging bad historical analogies to keep you hooked. The trauma of 2016 still resonates with people and should keep people anxiously looking at Rasmussen polls and freaking out (don't).

I suppose it is possible that Covid will disappear like a "miracle" to quote Mike Pence. I suppose it is possible that the economy will roar back to life. Much more likely is that the Senate's refusal to extend more aid to the unemployed and struggling small businesses will mean an economic collapse this fall. The sort that puts Kansas into play for Biden.

Don't fall for panic. Work, organize, register, vote.

High On Their Own Supply

I'm not a fan of "bothsides" journalism, but there is a common criticism of the Right and Left that makes sense. By the "Left" I mean those who stand outside the Democratic Party from the left and fling shit at it for not adopting their preferred policies, even if those policies are ineffectual and political suicide. By the "Right" I basically mean the Republican Party, which can't really be said to have a moderate wing outside of a few East Coast governors.

Both groups are victims of epistemological closure. That is to say they speak to themselves and only themselves. Rose Twitter and Fox News creates an echo chamber that drowns out evidence and reason. On Rose Twitter, it's Rose McGowan saying the Democratic party - the party of Social Security, the minimum wage, the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, Medicare, Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, the Violence Against Women Act, the Lily Ledbetter Act and countless other bills - has never done anything for the poor, women or people of color.  Yeah. OK.

A few cranks on the Left are no match for the vast apparatus of Fox and OANN on the Right. Trump astoundingly still gets roughly 39-44% job approval ratings.  This is an inconceivable number based on real world evidence. But 35% of Americans don't live in a world of real world evidence. They live in a world where America's Covid-19 response is a good one. They live in a world where Trump has made America more respected in the world. They live in a world where Trump is looking out for them. They live in a world where Trump is "draining the swamp."  All of these things are demonstrably false, but they simply can't penetrate the bone-deep and willful ignorance of his supporters.

This recently manifested itself in Trump's (and not so coincidentally, Rose Twitter's) decision to paint Joe Biden as suffering from dementia. In these closed bubbles, Biden's speech impediment is signs of cognitive decline. So, when Biden comes out and delivers a knock-out speech they are left having to retreat further into their cognitive bubble. 

Representative government is both terrible and better than any other form of government. It relies on the application of reason to solve problems for the common good. One party has lost all touch with reality.

Hopefully, November brings them a massive reality check.

Anyone NOT Indicted?

News that Steve Bannon was arrested for fraud related to building the wall is really a perfect exemplar of life in Trumpistan. You have someone involved with Trump's 2016 campaign (like Manafort, Page, Flynn, Papadopolous, Gates and others) grifting off of xenophobia and defrauding a non-profit (like Trump charities. 

Meanwhile, Trump's financial records have - once again - been ruled admissible to Manhattan's DA over, you guessed it, fraud. It's still unlikely that these records will be released before the election and less likely still that it will be leaked or lead to indictments before the first week of November. It's also unlikely that any of this will make a damned bit of difference for the 40% of Americans who seem to support Trump no matter what.

It's fascinating looking at the dynamics in both parties. Biden is trying to assemble a coalition that stretches from John Kasich and Charlie Dent to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Elizabeth Warren. That leads to fractious and bullshit arguments over how much speaking time AOC gets. Or whether Biden's aggressive climate plan is aggressive enough. Meanwhile, over in Republican land they are completely committed to this criminal conman and whatever bullshit comes out of his puckered piehole. 

The Senate Intelligence Committee report on the Russian investigation clearly shows that there was coordination between Trump's campaign and Russia. And these same GOP Senators who knew the information in their own report voted NOT to call witness in the impeachment trial last January. 

Back in 2016, it was said that not all Trump voters were racists, but for every Trump voter, racism was not a dealbreaker. In 2020, we can add to that (because the racism is still self-evident) that not every Trump voter is a criminal, but every Trump voter is okay with criminality in the highest office in the land.

Jesus, take the loss and look towards 2024.

How Does Politics Work?

When I read criticisms of Colin Powell endorsing Joe Biden, I'm left to wonder: Am I missing something?

The case Jon Chait makes in support of pushing Powell's endorsement seems so obviously clear to me that I can't help but wonder if the arguments that Ezekiel Kweku make in the same piece contain some hidden understanding that has eluded me.

Partisans in both parties are pretty close to locked in, but there is an obvious sub-set of Republicans who are willing to break with Trump. In 2018, Democrats ran a massive (but narrow in some ways) wave to control the House. That wave passed through the suburbs and college educated whites. Trump's explicit appeal to white ethnonationalism alienated a group of voters who have otherwise tilted towards the GOP. 

The idea is to get a lot more votes than Trump in November. Trump haters are highly motivated and are arguably more important than Biden lovers. I think the convention seems to be working in introducing Biden to those low information voters who are only dimly aware of him, despite his long presence in American politics. As Chait notes, bipartisanship is popular. To non-ideological voters who don't follow politics through a lens, if both sides agree on a thing, it must be good.

Biden looks to have about an eight to ten point lead on Trump. That's historically bad for an incumbent. However, there are still a great many voters who have not made up their mind yet. Perhaps they simply don't vote, but they are - by definition - persuadable. Biden is trying to persuade them.  Why is that so hard to understand?

Theater Criticism

 The Post gave reviews of Night One of the Democratic Convention to their theater critic. I guess that makes sense. There was a fair amount of criticism from the usual Twitterati about the presence of so many Republicans on Night One, but there is some value to those speakers to reach normal people who don't follow politics and don't have a real ideology. If something is bipartisan, a certain segment of the population thinks that it must be good. Biden will have that imprimatur, Trump will not.

Democrats will spend tonight presumably talking about policy. Wednesday is Harris. Thursday is Biden.

Republicans will spend this week and next in a spittle-flecked rage.

One of the many ways that 2016 was unique was that the angry, vengeful candidate won. Usually optimistic and upbeat wins. "A city on a hill," "A thousand points of light," "I still believe in a place called Hope," "compassionate conservatism," "the audacity of hope." Trump ran on American Carnage and only "won" because of a uniquely unpopular Democrat with WWC voters, Russian interference and a poorly timed announcement from James Comey. He's going to run on carnage again. I don't think it will work.

Jesus Christ, These People...

 Take the time to read this expose on Trump's campaign shake-up.  Basically, because of an assist from Russia, James Comey, ingrained racism and the quirks of the electoral college, Trump won a fluky election in 2016. He thinks he can do it again, by hiring a bunch of maroons to do the same fly-by-night bullshit they did last time.

Expect More Of This

Labor Day is right around the corner, which means the campaign "really" begins. Of course, in a polarized, crisis-filled atmosphere, the campaign has never stopped or lulled. The broad contours seem to be falling into place. As the Democratic "Convention" begins its virtual pep rally, one thing Biden is doing is making a conscious efforts to convert Republicans to Biden voters. The Never Trump GOP will continue to drip things like this, a former Republican DHS official soberly testifying that Trump is a menace to national security. Republicans who had passed on from their active political careers are also lining up to endorse Biden. 

For a certain segment of Leftist Twitter, this represents a betrayal, because - I guess - when someone votes for you, you have to do everything they say. Biden - as a mature, full grown politician - understands something that Rose Twitter does not: you have to win more votes than your opponent. This simple fact has eluded the Nina Turner's of the world, as they have plunged headlong off a cliff of their own alienating style. Since we can expect widespread voter suppression efforts from the GOP in October and November, beyond what they are doing with the post office, it's imperative to run up big margins in the suburbs. 

Meanwhile, we can expect Trump to double down in the racism and sexism. It's all he really knows at this point. 

There was a CNN poll that freaked everyone out that had Biden up 4 points (and Trump somehow winning 36% of the support of people of color...yeah, no). Meanwhile, ABC/WaPo, CBS/YouGov and NBC/WSJ all have Biden up 9-10 points. That feels much closer to where we are. Most of those polls have Biden from 50-54% and Trump at 41-44%. The 7-9% undecided (how is that possible but OK) are exactly the sort of people who can be reached by former GOP pols and officials coming out for Biden. Assuming many of those won't vote, if Biden can peel away half of them, he can win GA, TX and KS, much less FL and AZ.

Oh, Yeah. That.

 For years, when I teach globalization, we spend a day discussing whether globalization is an inevitable, one-way street. The textbook mentions some things that can reverse globalization, but I always added "pandemic" to that list, since great plagues have created insular politics in the past. I can't have been alone in that observation. A true pandemic was inevitable. This moment was coming; scientists knew about it; Democrats prepared for it; Republicans downplayed it (and destroyed the playbook left to them).

Anyways, global warming is still the greatest threat we face.

Hotspots

 Looking at the chart attached to this tweet, it's pretty clear that the pandemic is actually a series of especially virulent outbreaks and then some small, contained cases. The Italian outbreak was really the Lombardy outbreak with some spillover into Piedmont and Romagna. The lockdown of Italy effectively froze the virus in its tracks in the rest of the country, including the poor (and poorly governed) south of Italy. The national response crushed the hotspot into one place.

In the US we had the greater NYC outbreak of March and April. The lack of a national response allowed the virus to circulate in the background of May and June. Currently, we have a second epidemic in California, Texas, Florida and Georgia. (If we adjust for population size, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Nevada and South Carolina emerge as hotspots. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Greater NYC largely look like Europe. 

This isn't so much a "second wave" and we don't know what that will look like. This is, instead, a first wave for the Sunbelt. Only Louisiana is truly passing through a "second wave" since they got slammed in the spring and are getting slammed again. My guess is that the spring was largely contained to New Orleans, but the second wave is hitting the rural part of the state. Tough to find county level data that makes sense.

Until there is a vaccine, we will likely be dealing with outbreaks. South Korea is currently seeing an outbreak that has led to 166 new cases. Even New Zealand is seeing a spike in cases, but in both countries, aggressive test-and-trace have managed to limit the spread so far. For the Northeast, that will be key as schools re-open. Being able to test and trace does not mean the virus does not spread. It will.  We are seeing that in countries that responded well in the spring, and the parts of the US that learned the lessons of the spring, too. Italy reported 4 new cases today. Texas had 8,000 new cases yesterday.

Covid won't "just disappear," it requires hard work to keep in top of every new outbreak. Right now, in the Sunbelt the virus is simply out of any sort of control.

The Incompetence Usually Gets In The Way Of The Fascism

 Trump's typically hamfisted attempts to be a dictator usually backfire. His current attempt to destroy the Post Office so people can't vote remotely during a pandemic is typically incompetent.

First, he keeps admitting the illegal stuff on camera. Usually, the GOP uses a coded language about their blatant attempts to keep people from voting.  Trump pretty much admits that he's doing it for nakedly partisan reasons.

Second, he pulled this shit way too early. If this had happened in October, millions of ballots might've been delayed and thrown out.  As it is, people can now come up with alternative plans to get their ballots in on time.

Third, the Post Office is generally an important service, especially for older people. A war on the Post Office could widen Biden's advantage among usually reliable GOP partisans: the elderly.

Fourth, the Postal Service is explicitly mentioned in the Constitution and was founded largely by Benjamin Franklin. Trump has added to his list of assaults on the Constitution and left his minions open for prosecution should he lose in November.

Fifth, if there is one constituency that routinely uses absentee ballots and vote-by-mail, it is Republicans. Early vote by mail typically helps the GOP. Trump is undermining some of his own voters.

Sixth,Trump is tying all this to efforts to destroy the fiscal stability of "Democrat run cities and states." If aid is not given to the states, cities and individuals, we will see a massive economic downturn right in time for the election.

People close to Biden say one reason he chose Kamala Harris was to "prosecute the case" against Trump.  She will be excellent at that on the campaign trail. However, it's important to make sure that they prosecute the actual criminals in January.  

Hey, Look

 Donald Trump is a racist, sexist pig.

The Party Of Ideas

Back in the olden Reagan days, the GOP called itself the "Party of Ideas" even if most of those ideas could be eventually distilled down to "Give rich, white people more money." As that singular idea loses currency with Americans in the face of climbing economic and racial inequality, the Republicans wound up with Trump, a distillation of 30 years of race-baiting, militant ignorance and performative belligerence. To say that Trump has ideas does disservice to the idea that words have meanings. Trump has impulses and instincts, but he does not have a framework of ideas that underpin his "thinking."

Typical of Trump and most populist movements (right or left) is a reliance on conspiracy theories as opposed to data and observation driven thinking. To use an example from the left, some of Sanders supporters in both elections relied on conspiracy theories about the DNC to explain why their candidate did not get enough votes. Because populism stands in opposition to elite thinking, and elite thinking often relies on empirical methods, rejecting boring old facts becomes a defining characteristic.

Which leads me to Marjorie Greene. Greene immediately replaces Steve King as the most odious racist in the House, though she may not be as stupid as Louie Gohmert, Devin Nunes or Matt Gaetz. Then again, she might be! Her embrace of QAnon conspiracy theories has largely defined her media coverage, because it's so "out there." Given that the Georgia 14th district is about as conservative as you can get, she will be elected to hold Federal office in November. While GOP leaders eventually stripped Steve King of his committee assignments, it looks like they are prepared to welcome Ms Greene into their caucus with open arms. They may have preferred Cowan, but they are perfectly willing to work with Greene.

Greene owns a construction company with her husband and beat a neurosurgeon in yesterday's primary. You can't describe a better example of the current trend of the GOP into a party of aggrieved white working class voters turning their backs on anyone with a whiff of education and intellectual capabilities. 

(In case you're wondering: QAnon is a baseless conspiracy theory that a "cabal of Satanist pedophiles" is working to undermine Trump from within the Federal government. This led to the shooting up of a pizza joint in Washington, DC that was identified by Q as a nexus of child sex trafficking. The fact that Trump has a history of making grotesquely sexualized statements about young and underaged women and hung out with actual pedophile Jeffrey Epstein is a fact QAnon is designed to counteract through the internal, self-selecting "logic" of conspiracy theories. Trump himself spreads QAnon bullshit.)

Greene is a female Trump: crass, racist, ignorant with that unusual form of sexism unique to a certain type of white woman. Like with Trump, the GOP establishment held her at arm's length until she won the primary. Expect all those who called her previous statements about Blacks, Jews and Muslims abhorrent to back her candidacy, if only off the record.

I have been arguing for years that the GOP is bankrupt of a governing philosophy, aside from redistributing wealth upwards. The elevation of Trump and now figures like Greene or Colorado's Lauren Boebert who believe these fundamentally delusional conspiracy theories is further proof that the GOP is descending into a racial-panic fueled meltdown. (Georgia Republicans also effectively sent a tax cheat to Congress from the 9th district.)

Some have hoped that a crushing defeat of Trump in November will sober the Republican Party up and force them to confront the racism, sexism, bigotry and malevolent ignorance in their midst. Perhaps. It seems more likely that the bigger Trump's loss, the more a rump group of conspiratorialists will take over the Republican discourse and therefore the Republican Party.

God help us if they are ever allowed back in power.

Obamaland

It seems pretty apparent that the signature appeal of Joe Biden to most Democrats is his connection with Barack Obama. His signature appeal to moderates and some Republicans is that he is not Donald Trump, but Biden's appeal within the party is largely linked to Obama. Should he win the White House, we can count on many Obama/Biden alums becoming part of the Biden/Harris administration. This isn't especially unique. Every new administration needs people who "know the drawer where the good knives go."

Kamala Harris, though, seems another explicit link to Obama, even though she never served in his administration. The first time I heard of her was Obama mentioning her in a speech as a rising a star...effectively making her a rising star. (Although the comment itself was - to use today's parlance - "cringe.")

Needless to say, Obama didn't mentor Joe Biden, who already had decades of experience, though I think it's safe to say that Biden learned from Obama's political acumen. There are other examples of Obama's long reach into talent pools within the Democratic Party.  Much gets made of Bernie's acolytes like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. They certainly represent new and vital voices within the party, especially as they replace older, temperamentally conservative members. We shouldn't ignore the long term impact that Obama will have on the Democratic Party though.

Woodrow Wilson

 Erik Loomis to the left of me on many issues, especially regarding economics. However, he has a series called "Erik Visits an American Grave" that's really very interesting, where he snaps a pic of the grave and provides a brief biography.  His most recent entry is Woodrow Wilson, and it really is worth a read.

Since 2016, there has been a strong schism between cultural liberals and economic leftists. The quasi-Marxist economic determinism of people like Bernie Sanders and, yes, Loomis, tends to let them elide troubling issues of culture, race and gender in favor of a broad examination of class. So maybe that leads Loomis to his conclusions on Wilson, but I don't think so.  Wilson has been uniquely targeted by those concerned with racial issues.  Loomis adeptly explains why that's probably misplaced.  Wilson was perhaps slightly more racist than most of the presidents from 1892-1932, but only slightly. 

As I've said many times, when examining racism in the past, it does not excuse racism by saying that it was the tenor of the times. Saying Wilson (or Teddy Roosevelt or Samuel Gompers or anyone from that era) was a "man of his times" is not to excuse racism but to contextualize it and point out how prevalent white supremacy was. This can help contextualize the current state of white supremacy in America.

We no long live in an America where Wilson's form of white supremacy can prosper. (Even Trump's white supremacy is veiled and coded.) But we live in an America that was shaped by the institutions that came out of the Progressive Era and all of its troubling racist ideas and programs. 

There was a Progressive case for Jim Crow, just as the progressive view on slavery in the early 19th century included the likely forced deportation of freed slaves. The assumption rested on the idea that a multi-racial society would tear itself apart in violence and no one would be hurt more than Blacks by this violence. The history of Colfax, Tulsa and Rosewood suggest this has actual merit as a concern. It neglects, of course, the wishes of Blacks themselves, which is also an important understanding of the problems of the time.

America continues to work on creating a multiracial society, but all the evidence suggests that it's an incredibly difficult task.  As Europe becomes more multiracial, white ethnonationalist parties are rising. Countries like Brazil have the same issues of race and class that the US has, maybe more so. 

This is not to say that multiracial societies are impossible. In fact, they are critical to the future stability of the world. They are, however, a relatively new thing and far too many people are struggling to accommodate the idea of one.  In Wilson's lifetime, very, very few people saw this as possible, much less desireable. 

How Would This Work?

Apparently there is a type of UV light that kills 99% of coronaviruses but doesn't damage human eyes or skin. I would think it would be very nice to have these in any sort of closed a/c system. 

Neck Gaiters

 Research suggests that neck gaiters might not be effective at stopping coronavirus transmission. All the study actually did was look at the ability of a mask to stop the expulsion of airborne moisture. There is some evidence that smaller droplets are less contagious, and the neck gaiters may make the droplets expelled from someone's mouth smaller.

But basically, get the two-ply surgical mask or cloth ones.

When You Put It Like That...

 This piece by William Saletan is absolutely brutal. If journalism is the rough draft of history, the actual accounting when we have more information will be crushing. Sure, some enterprising young AEI "scholar" will offer a contrarian take, the way some people defend Hoover, but this is miles worse than Hoover (who did a few things right). 

There is also the stubborn presence of "excess deaths" that have never been adequately explained. If you don't want to hack through a medical journal article, basically, there were roughly 87,000 "excess deaths" beyond a normal two month period from March 1 to April 25. Around 56,000 or 65% were attributed to Covid19. Recall also that things like workplace accidents and fatal car accidents were down because of the quarantine. 

So, with what we know now, Trump's handling of the crisis has been appalling. It's arguably the greatest failure of basic governance in our history.  Even James Buchanan would blanche at that.  AND it's quite possible that the actual death toll from Covid is closer to 240,000, which is more than those who died in combat during the Civil War, and almost as many as died during all of World War II.

Please read the Saletan article, but only if you have a stiff drink handy.

UPDATE: Here's another brutal take on how America was ranked most prepared in the world for facing a pandemic, but then Trump and the GOP botched it.

Return To School

 There are lots of questions as schools begin to reopen. Reading Josh Marshall's take on NYC schools is fascinating. What's clear from my personal point of view is how divorced most discussions are from what our school is having, for two reasons.

First, we are a boarding school.  That provides a host of complications in terms of meals and residential facilities. It also allows a slightly better sense of control over our students. Outside introduction of the virus is going to be harder than at a day school where everyone goes home at night.

Second, and related, we are in a well-controlled state at the moment in Connecticut. I feel like if we can get everyone back and they are Covid-negative, we have a pretty decent shot at getting through a successful fall. By not having sports and not leaving the town the school is in, combined with diligent masking, distancing and hygiene practices, we should be fine.

Luckily, we aren't going to have to deal with "it's muh right not to wear a mask."  If you don't comply with masking, you get sent home.  Period.

September is going to be fraught. But if the first two weeks go well, I think we are in a decent place to reopen. Ultimately, it will come down to student compliance, plus our ability to test when students return to campus. Keep the virus out and keep it controlled should it appear are the keys. Students are naturally rebellious, but this will hopefully feel different for them.  Hopefully.

Trump's Sidam Touch

 Everything this guy touches turns to shit. Even his attempts at being a king don't work.

This Seems Important

The most interesting aspect of Covid-19 has been the wide variation in how people respond to it. Basically, there are two ways to fight a virus - antibodies and T-cells. Antibodies typically fade with time, but T-cells have longer "memory."  Coronaviruses are fairly common, so maybe having some immunological experience with fighting other coronaviruses might lead to better results when exposed to this one.  

Also, in the article there is some evidence that wearing a mask leads to asymptomatic infection. The current death rate of US infections is fairly low. People are getting sick, but not dying (yet). Perhaps the masks are reducing the viral exposure and therefore leading to milder or asymptomatic cases. There's this:

Gandhi noted that in some outbreaks early in the pandemic in which most people did not wear masks, 15 percent of the infected were asymptomatic. But later on, when people began wearing masks, the rate of asymptomatic people was 40 to 45 percent.

That has a massive impact on our own plan to open school with universal, mandatory masking. 

Veepstakes and 2024

David Greenberg notes the history of Vice Presidential selections tends to lean heavily towards winning the election. Because of his age and own experience Biden wants a ready out of the box vice who can take the job immediately. There have been some terrible political calculations - Andrew Johnson remains my choice as worst non-Trump president - and Biden seems unlikely to pluck Karen Bass, as an example, just to win over Berners. Whitmer hasn't been governor long, but then Harris hasn't been in the Senate long. Lance Bottoms has only been mayor for a short while.  Warren probably has the thickest resume. Although picking Hillary Clinton would be hilarious.

The broader question is whether Biden is considering ruling himself out for re-election in 2024. I personally think it will depend on the electoral landscape, but I wouldn't rule out him stepping down BEFORE 2024 if the virus is under control, the economy is surging and peace rules foreign affairs. Let Harris or Warren or Whitmer or Rice benefit from incumbency.

Apparently, he's made his decision, so that will help us figure out his plans for re-election (should he win in November). 

A Massive Own Goal In The Making

It seems unlikely that Senate Republicans and the White House will be able to reach a deal with House Democrats on extending the relief programs. The reasons for this are a combination of ideology and incompetence on the Republican side. Democrats realize that the necessary aid for people as opposed to businesses will not command a Republican majority in either house of Congress. Democratic votes are necessary for anything to pass. They are properly using that leverage to make sure they get a solid bill.

If they are unable to reach consensus on a compromise piece of legislation, the turmoil will be real. While the GOP will try and pin this on Pelosi, the fact is that the party that controls the White House will always pay the price for economic suffering.  Amazingly, Trump is barely above water in his polling on the economy. (Amazing because he should be a net negative.) It is the only metric that he is positive in (he's -14% on foreign policy, once a GOP strength; he's -20 on Covid; he's overall job approval is -12%).  If the economy craters in a 1932-33 death spiral, it means Trump loses Texas, Georgia and Kansas. Maybe Missouri. It sweeps in a Democratic Senate.

It's callous to inflict economic pain on guiltless Americans for political gain, and I understand why Democrats don't want to do that. I understand why they will want to pass something, anything to help Americans.  But now is the time for hardball. Fund the Postal Service and mail-in voting. Do rent relief. Extend UI benefits. Dream big. And if the GOP blocks it, let them reap the whirlwind.

Interesting Argument

Ezra Klein analyzes Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson's new book that talks about how conservative parties have a conundrum. They analyze the question: How does a conservative party wedded to the interests of the wealthy continue to win votes in a democratic system dependent on majorities.  They conclude:

You can cease being a party built around tax cuts for the rich and try to develop an economic agenda that will appeal to the middle class. You can try to change the political topic, centering politics on racial, religious, and nationalist grievance. Or you can try to undermine democracy itself.

This is where the GOP is. Since they won't abandon tax cuts for the rich, they have to exacerbate racial tensions and undermine democracy.  Klein has a question:

 Indeed, reading Hacker and Pierson’s book, I found myself wondering whether inequality was, itself, the cause of the coalition’s collapse: Perhaps the plutocratic agenda is becoming too unpopular to even survive Republican presidential primaries. And if that’s so, is the future of the Republican Party more moderate on all fronts, or more purely ethnonationalist?

"What comes after Trump?" is the pressing question for the GOP, but it may be that the party itself has no control over this. White Nationalism is clearly where the votes are. The establishment GOP did not want Trump, but they took the tax cuts and the judges. They presume that even if they get slaughtered in November, the voters will have forgotten about Trump by 2024, if not 2022.  It worked against Obama, it can work against Biden.

The problem is that suburbanites who used to warm to the aspirational plutocratic politics of the GOP have soured immensely on the White Nationalism. Even billionaires seem willing to embrace some of Elizabeth Warren's ideas. In fact, the Reaganesque suburbs might have really been George Wallace's suburbs with a polite veneer, that has been stripped away.

As Klein and Hacker/Pierson note, the GOP has decided not to moderate its unpopular economic policies and there probably isn't a long term viable strategy to mobilize angry white men to stay in power.  The result is to undermine democracy as a whole.

This is why a vigorous voting rights act and DC "statehood" is essential in the first weeks of a Biden Administration and a Democratic Senate. I don't think the White Nationalist/Plutocrat coalition is capable of sustaining electoral success.  But as 2010, 2014 and 2016 showed, they can creep into power. Until "conservatism" redefines itself, they need to be held at bay by the easy and proper method of making sure elections represent the will of the majority.

Grifters All The Way Down

Democrats are perfectly capable of commiting graft and corruption. They can cough up a Rod Blagojevich or a William Jefferson. Human nature being what it is, there will always be someone willing to exploit people's trust for personal gain.

What's extraordinary about the GOP is how much corruption is part of the culture of their party. The fact that the NRA (basically a subsidiary of the Republican Party) was committing massive amounts of fraud to enrich its directors is about as surprising as discovering that ice cream makes you fat.  

The defining aspect of Trumpistan is that of rank corruption. It's everywhere. The only reason it hasn't led to the arrest of Trump or his family members is that the DOJ says you can't indict a sitting president and no one wants to have a Roger Stone situation, where you convict a guy and Trump corruptly pardons him or her. 

It's always helpful to keep a tally of the corruption. The following campaign officials were found or plead guilty in a court of law: Michael Cohen, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Michael Flynn,  Roger Stone, George Papadopolous, Richard Pinedo and Alex Van Der Zwann.  The Brookings Institute keeps a record of officials who have "Resigned Under Pressure." There have been 16 members of the White House Staff who have had to leave under pressure. This includes Steve Bannon, Rob Porter (accused of domestic abuse), Sebastian Gorka who failed his security clearance, Omarosa Newman who had to be escorted from the building. Cabinet secretaries who have left under a cloud, include Rick Perry (Energy), Tom Price (HHS), Ryan Zinke (Interior), Alex Acosta (Labor), and David Shulkin (Veteran's Affairs).

When - God please God - Biden gets inaugurated, there can be no "turning the page" on all this.  It is an essential reckoning. When corruption becomes acceptable, it is incredibly corrosive of the ability of the country to function.  As someone who has spent some time studying countries with rampant public corruption (Russia, China, Mexico, Nigeria, Iran and 19th century America), I can say that it is arguably the biggest threat to self-governance.

Obamacare Does Work, If You Will Let It

We are seeing a trend of red states expanding Medicaid via the Affordable Care Act. Missouri was the latest, joining Idaho, Utah, Oklahoma and Nebraska.  All of these crimson-red states have expanded Medicaid through ballot initiatives.  In other words, bypass Republican politicians, and it turns out people like the idea of a national health care option.

There are a handful of states who have still not agreed to expand Medicaid, including the very large states of Texas, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. When you look at the map of states that haven't expanded, you see a pretty strong overlap with the Confederacy. Only Wisconsin, South Dakota, Wyoming and Kansas have failed to both expand Medicaid and secede in 1860-1. (If Wisconsin wasn't so ridiculously gerrymandered, it would have expanded it by now.)

There is a strong historical correlation between the Confederacy and opposing social welfare programs of any kind. Some of that is cultural suspicion of outsiders, but a lot of it is that white Southerners just don't want "those people" to get things "they don't deserve."

UPDATE: Scott Lemieux points out that the electoral coalition to pass the expansion included the suburbs.  Hard core Rose Twitter has decried the Democratic inroads into the suburbs as potentially weakening efforts to expand wealth redistribution by including reasonably well-off suburbanites rather than mythical working class rural voters who - in their eyes - are ripe for a socialist agenda.  Along with so much else of their estimation of how American politics works, this is bullshit.

Beirut

The horrific catastrophe in Beirut harbor immediately made me think that in any other time, the Sixth Fleet would be steaming towards them with hospital ships and infrastructure help.  But as far as Trump is concerned, dead people - especially Arabs are none of our concern.

I remember when American power was actually used for good at times.  Not shooting protesters in Lafayette Square or as pawns to appease Putin.

The Axios Interview

There are clips circulating of Jonathan Swan interviewing Donald Trump on Axios. I have enough shit going on in my life right now without subjecting myself to 37 minutes of that gibbering moron. The main clip that's being circulated is Trump trying to use a loose sheaf of hastily printed charts to show that the US is actually doing great in its Covid response.

Trying to understand his point is hard, but I think it has been explained to Trump this way: "We test more, so we have more cases, but we actually do a great job helping patients survive." Our death rate per case is actually pretty decent, but of course, there is more to this disease than death. Some survivors are struggling with long term health complications.

It doesn't take long to see the huge gaping flaw in this "logic."  We have more cases than anyone in the world. Those numbers are coming down, but it's not clear if they really are decreasing, or we are simply hiding the numbers in places like Florida, Georgia and Texas. So, we have a raging pandemic, which - when creates a VERY large denominator in the ratio. The deaths - the numerator - is also a huge number. A 1,000 people a day are dying of this disease. At least 1,000 a day. The ratio of deaths to cases is only good because the cases are so very, very large.

This is the sort of math that a reasonably astute person would be able to pick up on.  Not Trump, of course, but there is someone in the White House who understands this. They have made a conscious choice to explain the state of the pandemic to Trump in the only possibly positive way that they can: We have fewer deaths per case (because we have so many more cases). This is why Trump prattles on about testing. We do test a lot but not enough to get a handle on the pandemic. Betty Cracker puts it thusly:

The portion of the interview with the COVID-19 charts (first embed) unmistakably revealed why we’re in the mess we’re in for all who haven’t figured it out. It’s a Biden campaign ad and fractal portrait of Trump all in one clip. Trump’s people spend all day creating colorful, misleading charts to puff up the boss’s fragile ego, and Trump spends all day watching TV and throwing himself a pity party because no one else is praising his efforts. That’s the White House’s pandemic management strategy.

If we start the clock on this crisis on March 1 (which is being generous, it should be started January 1), then we are entering the six month of the pandemic. We still have absolutely no national plan for dealing with it. We have "advice" offered by various national health organizations like the CDC, the NIH and the Surgeon General, but we have no concrete plan to address this as a nation.  It is the single greatest policy abdication in our history. Even Hoover tried to address the Depression, he just didn't do nearly enough. Trump has done nothing.

So, his aides have concocted a bogus metric to make him feel good, because the immense manbaby can't take bad news. This is the enabling of a narcissist who has skated free from consequences his whole life because his dad left him money and he was a celebrity on the New York tabloid scene.  

What remains terrifying is that 40% of Americans think he is doing a good job.

Dear States

With Trump trying to undermine the election before it even starts, maybe you should go ahead and allow people to start counting absentee ballots before election day.

The Last President Of The Confederacy

Donald Trump could be the last president of the Confederacy. He could be the last president to openly and avowedly support white supremacy as a governing philosophy, the way the Confederacy did. Hopefully...hopefully, Joe Biden wins a landslide and the Trumpist tactic of appealing to overt white supremacy is seen as being a one-off fluky win. Tom Cotton gets trounced in the 2024 GOP primary by Larry Hogan or Mike Dewine and we can finally complete a surrender begun at Appomattox but left incomplete to this day.  

Just the other day, there was a pro-police rally in my hometown in Connecticut and someone showed up with a Confederate battle flag, the emblem of resistance to the civil rights movement. While the organizers allegedly asked the guy to leave, it does speak to the continued resistance to efforts to make a more just America. It speaks to the fact that the symbols of white supremacy are quite comfortable mixing with the symbols of the police state. The Republican Ascendency from 1968-1992 was driven in large part by appeals to protect white America from lawless Blacks. 

Professor Caroline Janney writes that Trump defeat in November could spin a new Lost Cause myth. Certainly that will be true in the fever swamps of QAnon and racist sub-Reddits. Trumpism will live on rural enclaves from Idaho to North Florida. However, one thing the Conservative Movement tries to do is erase its failures. Dubya Bush - whose incompetence almost matches Trump's, if his personal corruption does not - has largely been erased. They continue to lean hard on the Myth of Reagan, whose own racist appeals are buried by time. 

Right now, Biden is leading the polling aggregates in enough states to win 376 electoral votes. Another 46 are within striking distance. If such a drubbing where to occur, then it will be difficult for professional Republicans to ignore the lesson. Trumpism might live on among the same reactionary rump that made up the John Birch Society and the Klan, but I think you will see Trump and Trumpism trying to be erased from the GOP history. Without needing to defer to Trump's manbaby ego, Republicans will not obstruct the investigations into his pervasive criminality, his ties to Russia, his idiocy, his incompetence. They will pretend he never happened.

We can't let them.

Veepstakes

For some reason, Biden looks to be delaying the announcement of his vice presidential pick for another week. There has been furious leaks and character attacks on the leading candidates via Politico especially, so maybe he's re-setting the roster or waiting for things to cool down. It seems to be down to about four candidates.  I don't think Elizabeth Warren is in the running, because I think you need to worry about replacing her Senate seat. Also, I think she would prefer to be the "Lioness of the Senate" and have her fingerprints on the legislation that will need to be squeezed through a potentially narrow majority.

So that leaves three women most likely to be the Veep (in my mind). I think Biden is very much looking for someone to succeed him in 2024 - if not sooner. I can see a scenario where he wins a solid victory, signs some landmark legislation and steps down in 2023 so the Veep can run as an incumbent in the middle of (hopefully) a robust recovery. 

Susan Rice is clearly a candidate that Biden feels comfortable with as a person. She has never run for office before and has a history of impolitic statements. She suffers from the misogynistic double standard regarding "niceness." Apparently she has "sharp elbows" and doesn't suffer fools lightly. My guess is she winds up either at State or Defense.

Tammy Duckworth has the best personal story and the thinnest resume. Of the top three, she would be the one I'd be least thrilled to see takeover sooner in a Biden administration. Her personal story is compelling, she has shown the ability to take on Trump and she's clearly a "comer," but it's unclear if she's the safest pick for November or the riskier pick for January.

Finally, there's the presumptive front-runner: Kamala Harris. She has been vetted by the presidential campaign. She's charismatic. She has been pegged by Biden's BFF, Obama, as a rising star. She's won statewide office. She's actually both Black and Asian American. But there's been an attack campaign by fossilized old men around Biden like Chris Dodd and the odious Ed Rendell. She's "ambitious" - as if that were a sin for a man aspiring to the vice presidency. She played hardball in the primaries, and didn't apologize for it, which upset Dodd.

There are a host of other contenders: Val Demmings, Karen Bass, Keisha Lance Bottoms and a handful of governors. Demmings was a cop at a moment that's not a plus. Bass has said nice things about Castro, which doesn't help Florida. Bottoms has only been mayor for a few years. The governors will have to campaign while trying to fight a pandemic that Trump couldn't be bothered with.

In the end, I'd be more than fine with Harris as Veep, Chuck Schumer at Treasury or Chief of Staff so that Warren could be Majority Leader, Rice at State or Defense, Bottoms at HHS perhaps, Pete Buttigieg at State or Veterans Affairs.  That's a solid crew.  Certainly better than the grifters and cheats currently occupying those offices.